WITH the Cheltenham Festival looming so close, I have to break the usual rule of keeping the Irish racing at arm’s length in this review of the past week, and there was no race over the past seven days which caused quite as much reshuffling of markets than the Irish Arkle won by Il Etait Temps. I feel the need to try to make sense of what happened, particularly in regard to the shock defeat of Marine Nationale.

The dilemma for punters after Marine Nationale blotted his perfect record in the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown is whether to retain the faith in the absence of an outstanding candidate, or to banish him to the list of horses to avoid next month.

In finishing fifth to Il Etait Temps, he blew the Arkle wide open when it had looked his for the taking on the back of a spectacular debut over the same course and distance at Christmas.

Some have suggested that the debut form was overrated, and it was to some degree, being just a maiden chase, after all. But an overreaction to an impressive win is not adequate explanation for the manner of his defeat in early February.

Laboured

His jumping was impressive on debut but laboured second time, and while he only made one significant mistake in the Irish Arkle, he never made a pleasing shape over his fences, and his demeanour throughout was discouraging.

He carried his head high, laid his ears back in a manner that suggested he wasn’t enjoying himself and generally landed flat-footed at his obstacles, something totally at odds with previous runs.

He is – undoubtedly – a brilliant racehorse, but he didn’t face a particularly stiff task in the absence of Gaelic Warrior at Leopardstown, and his appetite for the task was lacking.

Time may prove that he was sickening for something on the day, but while that gives him a long-term pass, the Arkle comes up quickly, and getting him back on an even keel in the next few weeks is a monumental, if not Sisyphean task.

Willie Mullins can manage Sisyphean tasks, but for all his resources, it asks a huge amount of Barry Connell to turn this particular ship (or should that be boulder) around.

Marine Nationale maintains his position at the head of the betting for the Arkle largely because the field is so unconvincing, but the idea that he can turn up in his current form and win ugly is just hopeful nonsense.

Steeplechasing, much more than hurdling, finds and exposes the weaknesses in its participants, and Marine Nationale will be cast in the role of Achilles in the Trojan War.

I once read (in a piece written by unlikely professional punter, Pippy – Google him if you can) that high-class hurdlers were likely to win first time over fences due to a combination of talent and the novelty of the task, but that many would loathe the experience and that would show next time.

Rave reviews

I didn’t buy into that idea at the time, but it was interesting enough to remember, and as time passes, I see the author’s point. A lot of failed chasers have gained rave reviews on debut before quickly turning sour, and it’s possible that Marine Nationale fooled us with his powerhouse performance first time.

He wasn’t spared a hard race on his chasing bow, and while that didn’t seem an issue at the time, it may be having repercussions now.

The going at Leopardstown was put forward as an excuse as Connell believes he’s best on good ground, but that argument loses traction when you consider that he’s posted his best efforts to date when the ground has been soft or heavy.

That may well be coincidental, but I don’t believe that the ground played much of a role in his latest defeat. The fact he needed a breathing operation before his return is a bigger red flag, and one undiminished by the manner of his capitulation at Leopardstown.

Yes, he can bounce back, but can he bounce straight back? Frankly, I’d be surprised.

Just the facts of the Chase ma’am

I WAS going to say that fans of the US police drama Dragnet would recognise Joe Friday’s catchphrase, but I suppose regular Dragnet viewers are thin on the ground these days.

To recap, Friday’s hard-nosed cop would regularly exhort female witnesses to give him “just the facts”, although like all well-remembered catchphrases, the character never actually uttered the line exactly as remembered. Friday didn’t like distractions or extrapolations, and he wasn’t a hunch man. He just wanted the f……well, you get the picture.

When Fact To File won what had boiled down to a match for the Ladbrokes (Scalp) Novice Chase on Sunday, the reactions ranged from ridicule over the fact that three intended runners were withdrawn after declarations, to bewilderment (and a touch of schadenfreude) at Gaelic Warrior’s capitulation.

What was largely lacking was a factual assessment of Fact To File’s performance, with plenty of people happy to consider the race something of a waste of time. To do so would be folly, however, as the winner did more than enough on the day to suggest he would have been hard to beat under any circumstances and he goes into the Cheltenham Festival oddly under the radar for a potential Gold Cup winner of the future.

Bumper recruit

It’s rare for Willie Mullins to go straight over fences with a bumper recruit, and while Ballytrim’s chasing career is not generally celebrated, the superb performances of Florida Pearl will live long in the memory.

Fact To File, like Florida Pearl, went straight over fences after running in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, and he has also made a seamless transition despite meeting defeat on debut when conceding first run to the talented American Mike at Navan.

He’s been very impressive at Leopardstown over Christmas, beating Zanahiyr by 17 lengths.

Did he do anything to enhance his reputation in the Scalp? It’s tempting to say no given he finished alone, but there was a valuable handicap chase run over the same trip later on the card, and the fact that he was able to coast home from the last and still clock a time of 5m27.2s, over three seconds faster than Heart Wood managed in the O’Driscoll’s Irish Whiskey Leopardstown Handicap Chase, is impressive.

It’s even more impressive when you consider that he was carrying 23lb more than the 136-rated Heart Wood.

Unusually, the small-field contest was run at a faster tempo than the big-field handicap and extrapolating handicap marks based purely on time would be stretching the facts too far, but the fact that Fact To File jumped so soundly in a race run at a strong tempo suggests very strongly that he would be at home in the two and a half mile Turners Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham, and that race would look the perfect target for him at the Festival.