121114114. Those are the form figures for Dan Skelton-trained and Harry Skelton-ridden chasers in October through December at Haydock in the last couple of years.
They include some very impressive winners, although pointing this out has come a week late to pinpoint recent winners Real Stone and Grey Dawning, who won by 20 lengths and nine and a half lengths on Saturday. I could mull over why the Skeltons do so well at Haydock, and it’s worth considering that the track favours sound jumping and aggressive tactics, which are certainly an excellent match for the Skeltons’ well-schooled chasers as well as Harry’s predilection for injecting pace mid-race as a tactical ploy.
I could do that, and it’s certainly worth bearing in mind at the track’s remaining meetings this year (there are three in December), but I’m more interested in looking at how these impressive winners have fared subsequently, with the feeling being that results have been disappointing from those horses away from the scene of their wins.
The winners have been Blaklion (twice), Protektorat and Ballygrifin Cottage plus last weekend’s pair. The subsequent combined form figures for those to have run since, ignoring Haydock form, reads: P00PPPP3P45. The ‘3’ in there makes things look respectable, but was actually a last of three runners, and in those 11 runs, the Skelton horses have beaten just four other finishers in total.
I know it’s a small sample, but I remember being astonished at how easily Ballygrifin Cottage had disposed of Beauport there last year and thinking he must be exceptional only to find that he’s been unable to get close to that form since. Grey Dawning is now rated 144 after beating a leaden-footed Gaillard Du Mesnil last week in a very ordinary time, and Real Stone has been declared to run off an 8lb higher mark at Newbury on Saturday.
I think both are flattered by Harry Skelton’s ability to gain lengths around the tight Haydock chase track, which rightly has a reputation for attracting specialists. That, it would appear, is true for jockeys as well as horses, so keep Harry on side at Haydock, but avoid the winners when they go elsewhere subsequently.
GIVEN what I’ve intimated about the nature of the track at Haydock, it’s often worth forgiving hold-up rides at the track that haven’t come off, with the contours (or lack thereof) meaning it’s often easier to poach a lead there and harder to come from off the gallop as a result.
Two horses went straight into my notebook at the weekend for that reason, and although one was pretty obvious to most seasoned observers, it’s worth getting them down on paper in any case.
Corach Rambler was only third in the Betfair Chase, but he was unable to keep tabs on the leaders after Bravemansgame and Protektorat locked horns, and to be beaten 15 and a half lengths won’t have seen him enter many notebooks. I thought his run was proof that he has plenty left to offer, though, and he closed up late without having the kitchen sink thrown at him at a track, and a trip, hardly designed to show him in his best light.
The obvious thought afterwards would be how to set him up best for another Grand National tilt, but I’d fancy his chances in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham, a course he relishes, and should he land that Grade 2 contest, then a Gold Cup bid would look more than realistic. He would relish the trip at Cheltenham in March, is already a dual Festival winner over fences and could yet find further progress given how he’s been campaigned.
O’Brien eyecatcher
Crambo really ought to have won or gone very close in the Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle, as he got motoring far too late having been ridden wide and behind on his first try at three miles. It didn’t help matters that having kept wide throughout, he was then switched inside to make his run amongst horses, although I’m inclined to give Connor Brace a pass as his mount looked to lug that way of his own accord.
He lost momentum and got into traffic as a result, but rallied strongly when balanced again, and was cutting dramatically into Slate Lane’s lead on the run-in, suggesting that a more confident ride might have paid full dividends.
Crambo seemed to prove that he stays three miles well, although I’d like to see him on a more galloping track to be 100% certain, and a small rise in the weights leaves him well handicapped still. Co-owner Chris Giles has already backed him for the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, so there is pressure for O’Brien to campaign him with that in mind, but I know that Fergal would rather line him up for the Pertemps Final, and he mentioned running in the Warwick qualifier in January, a race he’s won in the past.
It will be intriguing to see how the different agendas are reconciled at Ravenswell Farm, but I’d be happier to see a Stayers’ bid delayed by a year, as Crambo appeals most as a big handicap plot at present.
On the subject of Crambo, it’s worth remembering how strong the EBF Final he won at Sandown was, and he’s one of 10 horses from that contest to have won subsequently. Those who were beaten there are worthy of attention still, and I’m particularly sweet on Crebilly, who didn’t get a mention in last week’s report as I was waiting to see what the handicapper would do to him after his fall on the final day of Cheltenham’s Paddy Power meeting.
Crebilly claims
A 5lb rise for falling at the penultimate fence may look harsh to some, but he was moving very sweetly when taking a typical tumble at that ill-sited obstacle (my UK Government petition to put it back where it was a decade ago is still short of the number required to have it debated in Parliament) and looks a high-class chaser in the making.
A 25/1 shot when sixth to Crambo at Sandown, he improved when scoring over the same C&D in April and had jumped and travelled with real purpose when disaster struck last time. He was travelling better than winner Ginny’s Destiny at the time, and that gelding went up 8lb for his win, so I don’t think the handicapper has been harsh with Crebilly, who will make his mark in graded company, but can win a good handicap first.
THOSE reading the racing headlines over the last week may have spotted that Pam Sly’s Market Rasen winner Mixedwave became the first horse to be disqualified for a whip offence, when the Whip Review Committee found that rider Alex Edwards used his whip nine time more than allowed by the rules.
The nature of the rules means that the disqualification was only ratified when the case was referred by the Market Rasen stewards, meaning that Mixedwave was treated as the winner for betting purposes on the day but that the win and associated prize money are now forfeit, and Edwards must serve a 24-day ban.
There has been some debate about the possibility of disqualifications due to riders abusing the current whip rules, but I don’t see any controversy at all in this decision. Disqualification was designed as an “ultimate deterrent” and this was the first such case in almost 8,000 races run since the new rules came into force.
Punishing a rider for one or two strikes over the limit, or above shoulder height, might leave connections feeling aggrieved, but sixteen strikes to ensure victory is indefensible, and both the disqualification and the ban are proportionate in the circumstances.