NO axe to grind this week, particularly as the big Goodwood meeting tends to throw up more than its share of unlucky losers given the nature of the track and the competitiveness of the races.
The problem with picking unlucky losers is working out the extent their ill-fortune will be factored into prices when they are next seen, and the most obvious contenders don’t always repay support.
In short, if you’re marking up a horse by 5lb for whatever reason, but the odds compilers are marking it up by 7lb, then you’re wasting your time. The more blindingly obvious the bad luck, the more likely this scenario, and the problem with punters who spend time working on an angle is that they tend to be reluctant to walk away from it even when the odds aren’t in their favour. We all like getting paid for our work, after all.
One particular type of eyecatcher I want to avoid from Goodwood is the “finished fast down the outside” loser which are the easiest to spot and therefore most likely to be marked up all round.
The truth is that messy races at Goodwood may suit those on the front end, but they can also flatter those who flash home out wide, with clear sailing an advantage in cluttered fields.
Enfjaar is an obvious example on the opening day, and while he could easily win next time, he won’t be missed in the market. There were plenty of other fast finishers through the week, with Wafei on Friday and Euchen Glen on Saturday getting plenty of mentions, but the more perception there is of bad luck, the less scope there is for a generous price next time.
My horses to take from the meeting below are therefore not necessarily those who jumped off the screen at first viewing, but those who shaped with promise for the future but may not get the credit for that when priced up next time.
Four To Follow from the Notebook
The Strikin Viking (Tuesday)
We are more likely to note a fast finisher than one who was caught late after doing too much, and The Strikin Viking falls firmly into the latter category.
An expensive defeat for my personal portfolio, the son of Inns Of Court got to the front earlier than ideal in the Richmond Stakes after Tropical Storm dropped away and while he kept on willingly, he was a sitting duck for a late closer, and was caught close home by Black Forza.
The pace was strong in the Richmond and three of the first five home were well in rear after a furlong, pointing to the likelihood that the gallop was too strong, and that’s how the race played out, with the runner-up shaping like the best horse.
To contextualise, the winner only won a maiden (although one working out very well), so it wouldn’t be wise to get carried away, but The Strikin Viking seems tailor-made for the Gimcrack at York having won over course and distance on debut.
Chief Mankato (Tuesday)
Chief Mankato lost his way after a winning start for Charlie Hills last spring but caught the eye starting out for Jack Channon in the five-furlong handicap on Tuesday.
That trip is short of his best, and this was his first try, so he can be forgiven for being unable to go the pace, but he still fared best of those drawn high and will be seen in a better light back at six furlongs.
His new trainer has impressed with his handling of handicappers to date, and I’m sure this son of Sioux Nation will be placed to advantage. He seems best on quick turf.
Super Superjack (Friday)
Super Superjack looked to have been laid out by Olly Murphy for the two and a half mile Goodwood Handicap having finished second to Master Milliner in 2022, but it was the latter who scored last week, with the well-backed Super Superjack well held.
That doesn’t tell the full story, as an uneven tempo did not suit Murphy’s dour stayer and he tried to make his move up the rail, a tactic which worked precisely once all week, by my reckoning.
The seven-year-old finished with running left and has been dropped again by the assessor for finishing unplaced, meaning he’s now 8lb lower than when favourite for the Shergar Cup Stayers’ that year, and having missed all of last year, he’s taken a couple of runs to get back to full fitness.
He needs a good gallop over two miles as all he does is stay, but he has given the impression his ability is intact, and he will surely be winning again before the summer is out.
Rohaan (Saturday)
The Stewards’ Cup provided a great result for connections of Get It, but in a race where the highest five stalls provided four of the first five home, there is clearly plenty to be gleaned from digging through the lower draws for hard luck stories.
The most obvious by far is Billyjoh who managed to hit the frame from stall 4, but one who is much more under the radar is Rohaan, who may have had a middle draw, but who ended up trying to make his challenge furthest towards the far rail and shaped much better than the result.
Something of an Ascot specialist, Rohaan tends to finish strongly from off the pace and although more inconsistent than in his youth, he retains a high level of ability. He looked a picture in the preliminaries and appears to be in much better form than his midfield finish would suggest.
A return to a stiffer track will be in his favour and he will be 6lb lower in the weights next time, which is a fact which may bypass the majority.