“DOCTORS differ and patients die”, was an old saying regularly quoted by an old neighbour when they were losing an argument.
We could paraphrase that this week too … trainers differ and horses get hyped, but whether City Of Troy might ‘die’ on the back of all the praise landed on his back, we may have to wait three months to find out.
It’s disappointing that City Of Troy will not take on the best in Europe again. If he is so amazing, the Irish Champions Stakes should not have compromised his American bid in November. Golden Horn did York, Leopardstown, the Arc and America, and Sea The Stars’ tour de force was in the Arc after winning at York and Leopardstown.
With regard to all the praise lauded all season, it was worth a quick look back at the careers of recent ‘superstars’. Frankel only got the out of ordinary comments after his Ascot win at two, a Racing Post analysis comment: “it’s clear Henry Cecil believes him to be something special (said he’s his best 2-y-o since Wollow), and he’s done little to suggest otherwise with back-to-back wins in devastating fashion.” He cemented the praise quickly with the brilliant Guineas win and there could be no doubts on his ability. And there were those rumours of a gallop, faster than the passing train to Cambridge.
With Sea The Stars, the horse did the talking. It was only at the end of his career that we heard that Mick Kinane had said after the Derby that “this is one of the best ever.”
We had a comment from Aidan O’Brien last season: “He has always been special from day one, his movement, eveything about him.” But wait, that was Auguste Rodin.
City Of Troy’s “our Frankel” praise was begun by his owners last autumn. Despite his Derby and Eclipse wins, only at York, on the clock if not the actual performance (winning margin etc), did he really impress the experts.
The Timeform 130p figure has given rise to plenty of debate, and it is surprising that the other fast time figures on the day seem to have been a bit ignored when putting his win in context.
Fast enough
“No pace is ever quick enough for him, you couldn’t go fast enough for him.” Aidan O’Brien said this week. Well, that is going to be truly tested at Del Mar.
With no outstanding colts in the US, it is likely to be a big field. Then the draw will be extra important. Wide, he’ll forfeit ground. On the rail, he’ll face kickback if he doesn’t make the lead. The traditional slower start by European runners will be more of an issue.
There is usually a ‘hare’ in big US races, they inevitably go off fast. It’s a vastly different track and conditions but compare the times from York to those the last time the Breeders’ Cup classic was run at Del Mar. Knicks Go won the 10-furlong Classic in 1m 59.7 secs. The half-mile time was 45.77secs at Del Mar. Even on different surfaces, it’s fast.
Opponents
Who are the likely opposition? Fierceness and Whitney Stakes winner Arthur’s Ride are the two rivals with the highest Beyer Speed Figures in the US.
Fierceness is well exposed, has a few poor runs but was very good in the Travers and also posted his best run of his two-year-old season in the autumn in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
The four-year-old Arthur’s Ride is a latecomer, with just seven runs under his belt but he led early and went all the way to that seasonal best Beyer figure in the Whitney. Tomorrow’s Jockey Club Gold Cup will show what he can do.
If avoiding the best in Europe and going to America looked an easy option, there are extra questions posed by taking on America’s best on their home conditions.