SOMETIMES you wonder how we all managed to do anything without technology to lead the way or make up our minds for us. How did we get from A to a random B without a sat nav?
Racing analysis has benefited hugely in the last 15 or less years from the advances in having data available on how fast each horse ran, furlong by furlong, or how much ground they covered.
It was always an added bonus watching US racing and seeing each furlong time appear in the corner of the screen. You could tell early how a race was likely to develop or get clued in to something outstanding.
Racing analysis in these parts has now caught up and we have a huge amount of new information. Sectional times, jumping times, you wonder how did we pick winners with just our eye and the formbook? The most recent additional ‘tool’ is the time gained or lost jumping obstacles. It is potentially very interesting, even if it may take some time before we can gauge its usefulness.
Can one horse really gain 35 lengths over another in a race if he is not being pushed clear?
It would have been interesting to have this data in the days of Best Mate, since one of his key attributes was that he rarely met a fence on a wrong stride. How much energy did he conserve?
While overall distance gained may still be open to question, I often think of jumping errors as similar to when you trip over a paving stone - you are still moving forward but not on an even keel and you have lost some energy.
Two contrasting jumping performances came under observation in recent weeks. Marine Nationale’s laboured effort at the DRF in comparison to his debut win over the same track and Edwardstone’s return to form with different riding tactics at Newbury last Saturday.
A lot has been written offering opinions on Marine Nationale’s demeanour and jumping, while trainer Barry Connell just offered ground conditions as an excuse.
Going back to older times and trusting the eye as much as the stats, it was remarked how he seemed to carry his head awkwardly in his beaten effort in the Arkle. Yet, a look back far enough to the 2022 Royal Bond, which he won narrowly, shows a similar head carriage and if you look at the replay long enough, he doesn’t prick his ears on pulling up. Is it enough to forgive him at a now 5/2 in the Cheltenham Arkle?
At Newbury, with more daring tactics employed, the 2022 Arkle winner Edwardstone returned to form with a wide margin win. Many seem to be querying that he will not be able to produce this effort at Cheltenham, with El Fabiolo and Jonbon well ahead of him in the betting. Jumping data showed he gained over 15 lengths on his rivals.
He was second favourite when he was beaten by over 63 lengths by Energumene in last season’s Champion Chase so it requires a big improvement from that, but it should be noted that in the Anglo Irish Jumps Classifications he was rated 169 to 170 for El Fabiolo so the gap was small. And Jonbon was back on 166.
Again, to the eye, this looked a horse enjoying his job, rather than the one who had pulled too hard held up against Banbridge at Kempton.
He has two early season defeats by Jonbon to turn around but the 8/1 is a decent bet against two horses who have not been faultless over fences, if he, as the more experienced chaser, is ridden to force them from their comfort zone
Similarly, if you had said Marine Nationale would be a best priced 5/2 for the Arkle three weeks ago...you’d have needed a lot of data to explain that. Both the Arkle and the Champion Chase are teeing up to be cracking contests.
ONE of the things you most missed from the racecourses of Ireland during that long, dreary Covid lockdown was the elegant form of Maureen Mullins making her way across parade rings from Bellewstown to Tramore to Galway.
Not to be missed from the mecca across the water, she even managed a Zoom TV appearance during the 2021 ‘restricted attendance’ Cheltenham Festival.
Many tales of the turf have gone with her and she was as recognisable as any of the famed jockeys and trainers amongst the rest of her famous family.
The words ‘Queen’ and ‘First Lady’ get used frequently by us scribes in attempting to single out a person for some out of the ordinary praise. The tributes this week at the passing of Maureen Mullins, and her ‘amazing story’ reminded me of a line from the speech given by Olivia O’Leary when Queen Elizabeth II, to whom we are led to believe Mrs Mullins was well acquainted, made her first state visit to Ireland and it was overheard by an onlooker as her state convoy made its way through Dublin streets. “It’s the Queen, the actual Queen.” In racing terms, we could long have borrowed those same words. May she rest in peace.