IT’S all going to be decided in the first 25 seconds. What develops out of the starting stalls, how he gets to that first bend, depending on gate position, how he copes with the kickback, if he can’t lead. It could all be over after a matter of seconds.”

Fran Berry’s comment on Luck on Sunday last week on City Of Troy’s chances in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. And… that was before he was drawn 3.

Few top flat horses have been more scrutinised as City Of Troy. So much was expected. There was the Guineas flop before a fine Derby performance, if maybe less so now, with the placed horses fading somewhat towards the end of the season. Then the big defining win at York led to all the ‘best we’ve ever had’ comments from connections.

First it was his size. Justify was a striking chesnut, and his bay son was a champion on the racecourse at two and earned high praise but, by the beginning of this season, his size was under discussion – he wasn’t a big, eye-catching colt. Aidan O’Brien insisted he was bigger than he looked – 16 hands, no issue.

But it didn’t stop there. In the build-up this week, former top US rider Jerry Bailey commented: “He is still a good-looking horse but he’s more feminine that I thought he would be. The biggest question anybody has, is will he dirt? Seeing him, I didn’t get the answer I was looking for.”

US TV pundit Randy Moss on the AtTheRaces preview was also wary on his appearance. “Justify was a muscled, statuesque chesnut. Galileo was a smaller, athletic bay, but not powerfully built. City Of Troy looks a lot more like Galileo than he does Justify and that’s a concern.”

Been the intention

And what of the dirt? It was mentioned at the very first media Ballydoyle briefing in March that a trip to the US was on the cards, probably to Saratoga in August, so it has always been the intention to put him on dirt.

The draw has not been kind. The Southwell experiment was to make him break faster, so necessary now from his draw. Forever Young in stall 1 on his inside did not break too well in the Kentucky Derby which is one plus. But Highland Falls in 2 went forward from the start in the Jockey Club Stakes and that is Arthur’s Ride’s (12) run style too.

A look back at the last Del Mar Classic showed the field got through the first four furlongs in 45.77 seconds. It’s fast. It’s obviously different conditions but none of City Of Troy’s first five furlongs at York were under 12secs.

Aidan O’Brien has put a lot on the line and has stuck to his guns under questioning on the merits of his horse.

I learned long ago not to go against the master trainer. Preferring to look at Istabraq’s laboured defeat of His Song in the 1998 AIG Europe Champion Hurdle and that he has won a Sun Alliance Novices’ over two and a half miles, backing the Supreme winner Shadow Leader and ignoring the O’Brien comments that “he’ll destroy them.” And thus it proved to be.

Can he do it this time? It’s going to take some effort, but I’m still not convinced.

So who stands out on the rest of the card? Ramatuelle’s late absence gives Porta Fortuna a terrific chance. Wingspan could be the sleeper in the Turf, where Jayarebe too has a nice profile.

You’d like the US stars to perform so let’s go with the ‘grizzly’ Thorpedo Anna. You’d love Believing to get a Group/Grade 1 but she got a final slap in the face with another bad draw in 1. Cogburn could be done and dusted before she sees the winning post.

IT might be the season of ghosts and ghouls but I was feeling like calling upon the ghosts of Sea Pigeon, Night Nurse and Monksfield from the hurdling greats of the 70s, to come haunt the champion trainer for a week, after listening to Willie Mullins’ piece on Racing TV with Nick Luck.

The comment was on where or if his top hurdlers might take on the returning Constitution Hill and would he fancy a crack at him before the Champion Hurdle. “If you do it beforehand, that takes the thrill out of the Champion Hurdle, if we go over to take him on at Newcastle or the Christmas Hurdle then the betting will change…I love the build up to Cheltenham when everyone wins their races along the way and let’s have the final at Cheltenham.

“If you run them all the first day, against each other, there is no season, no anticipation. It you take each other on early in the season, it’s dead.”

Errrr, oh no, it’s not. You could argue what is damaging jump racing is the lack of competition. No one ever decried Monksfield, Night Nurse and Sea Pigeon for defeats early in the season, the Champion at Cheltenham is still the gold medal. And there were high class horses in the 70s like Beacon Light and Dramatist to have a go and get a following, even if that was generally gallant losers come Cheltenham. You can have an Australian Open, French Open, US Open and Wimbledon with all the top players on a tennis circuit. It doesn’t lessen any tournament.

First race

And... not even going back to the 70s, Paddy Mullins sent Dawn Run on her first big race out of novice company (she had run in the Aintree Hurdle in her novice season) to take on the reigning Champion Hurdle winner Gaye Brief in the 1983 Christmas Hurdle.

Given Lossiemouth and State Man are unlikely to take each other on here, send one to Kempton. Who wants a softly, softly Lossiemouth until March? How tough a gallop will State Man go to win the next Grade 1 at Punchestown and Leopardstown? In the last 10 years, there have only been two British-trained runners in the Irish Champion Hurdle. With probably Ballyburn and Slade Steel going over fences, the two-mile hurdle division is very light. Brighterdaysahead would be a nice addition.

It was pointed out by Rory Delargy last week that Champions Day at Ascot was enhanced by horses who had been taking on allcomers through the season. Yes, they were beaten along the way. But there they were on the final day and got final glory. Bluestocking took the punches all season but went out in a blaze of glory. Read Sean Clancy’s Breeders’ Cup preview - an away game for most, step up, take a risk, throw your chips on the table.

Of course, no trainer does so well in keeping all his big owners happy. You can’t complain if your horse has won a Grade 1. And perhaps those jumping owners want a winner at Cheltenham more than any other Grade 1. But is it good for competition? For the good of jump racing? For the sporting audience? Since when is a rematch not as exciting than an initial meeting?

And we all know anything can happen in a jumping race. Arkle did get beaten on occasions. Take Constitution Hill on, see if he has any issues from missing a season, if beaten, try again. There really should be nothing to lose by having three match-ups per season!

THERE is little to say on how much loved and missed Alastair Down’s contribution to racing journalism has been. Simple to say, there were few writers or contributors who made you stop and listen or buy a newspaper, simply because they were in it. There was no equal in my racing lifetime in this part of the world.