RACING fan or not, it’s pretty much a given that on Grand National day, the race will have reached into most of the sporting population and beyond, in these islands and further afield.
With the increasing negativity creeping in around the sport, there was a fear that recent weather was likely to make it a tough test of galloping. But the paradox is that tough conditions make for tired horses but a slower pace and softer ground to soften falls may not look good, but is often safer for horses and riders if they do fall. However, the fears seem to have been dismissed by the last two days of sunny Liverpool weather.
Personal early memories place it ahead of any major sporting occasion and any Tom, Dick or Harry, or Harriet in the village would venture a flutter. If someone asks you for a tip, be sure to spell it out for them. Not like the geezer who was told to back - a funny name, Numbersix something... and plunged his lot on No 6, Le Roi Miguel in 2006!
Digging into today’s race for a likely winner, you cannot but begin with last year’s winner Corach Rambler. Gerri Colombe showed that a Gold Cup or Cheltenham run a month ago did not really leave a mark. Corach Rambler’s running style - and with him keeping a little back - may well see him here with a little in hand, despite the weights rise of a stone from his win last year. He could be one of those horses who run up a sequence of placings in the race.
Many from the field are easily dismissed – can’t have Janadil, Fury Road, Run Wild Fred or Minella Crooner. It’s not soft enough for Nassalam, but too soft for Galvin? Capadanno may not want this distance while the Mullins riding plans are a bit of a surprise as Meetingofthewaters had looked to have many of the qualities required, but is deserted by the number one rider. Paul Townend faces an interesting time on I Am Maximus - his Aintee record is 0UFP0PPPUU3, not too inspiring.
I don’t really get the Limerick Lace love. HIs dam Sway did produce Kim Muir winner Inothewayurthinkin (won again yesterday) but Walk In The Park generally gets classier, shorter distance winners. Coco Beach gave her nearly a stone and outstayed her in the Troytown. Someone (possibly J.P.) must know more than the formbook tells us. How much is a “few quid” to Limerick’s great man? Mark Walsh’s National ‘form’ was BUUPPUP5 before he got on Any Second Now.
Delta Work appears to have a lot of fans this year but he’s had two attempts and that is perhaps not a positive at 11.
Mahler Mission has been put aside for this since his excellent Hennessy second and is on the list. What a first ride it could be for Ben Harvey.
Strangely, for such a unique test, it is a race that horses often win on their first attempt. Only Tiger Roll in recent times had run it it before. That puts my number one selection Panda Boy well to the fore. Off a lovely weight he should also stay pretty well. He has form in all the big Irish staying races that are generally on a National winner’s CV. He was as big as 40s in January and that is a nice view now. Martin Brassil’s National runners are 1636U.
Galia De Liteaux is also high on the shortlist and better to have Dan Skelton onside than not? For all that her form is hit and miss, and at times she did not seem to find as much as she promised.
I think one of the forgotten horses in the top section is Stattler. Past winner of the National Hunt Chase, his campaign since has been hit and miss but you can argue he has not been campaigned to advantage. Surely 50s is well overpriced and at the odds, he’s worth adding to the each-way lot. It would be a fitting end to a Mullins year for Patrick to win the Grand National?
As regards trends, I may be in a no-go area with a grey and a mare on my side. From 1951 Nickel Coin, through Nicolaus Silver in 1961 and Neptune Collonges, it spans a long spell of National history. But stranger things have happened!