THERE is certainly a case for a smoother start to the flat season, as every season it seems to stutter into life after the start at Doncaster and finds itself playing a secondary role to high-profile National Hunt action.
It only manages to get a foothold at the Craven meeting at Newmarket after the Grand National. This means that races can go under the radar or at least not be given the focus they deserve.
This week I will look at some performances on the flat that may have been lost in the build up to the Grand National and analyse what the data is telling us.
The focus of my attention will be at Leopardstown on Sunday, but I will also have a look at one race from Kempton on Saturday.
According to the finishing times the ground at Leopardstown was very testing. Officially described as heavy it produced times that were well under standard with the best overall time being posted by Battle Cry who stopped the clock in a time 10.81secs slower than standard.
When it comes to the Ballysax Stakes, it would be easy to underestimate the winner, Dallas Star, because he was returned as a 50/1 shot. The data shows that his price was irrelevant, his performance excellent.
P.W. McGrath Ballysax Stakes (Group 3): Dallas Star
There was no hiding place in a race that was strongly run in the prevailing testing conditions.
The winner made the running for the first half mile before being taken on and headed by Deepone who took over for the next half mile with Dallas Star then rallying against the far rail to get back to the front two out.
The early pace was the strongest that we saw on the card with Seamie Heffernan riding a positive race on the winner from stall three. His second furlong of 12.47secs and third of 13.02secs were the fastest early splits on the card.
Just as the winner may have wanted a breather, Deepone took him on and pressed the pace and this duel ensured that Dallas Star was on empty in the final two furlongs recording a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 93.58%.
This means he ran the last two furlongs 6.42% slower than he ran the pervious mile. His final two-furlong splits in marked contrast to early splits of the race at 15.25secs and 16.61secs.
It is legitimate to ask why no horse could run him down given how slowly he finished. The answer lies in the strong early pace that got all of his rivals out of their comfort zones a long way from home.
Quite simply, he just kept going better than his rivals and had the benefit of the rail to race against. A look at how slowly the other horses finished the race is revealing.
1. Dallas Star: 93.58%
2. The Euphrates: 93.24%
3. Illinois: 92.63%
4. Deepone: 90.56%
5. Ocean Of Dreams: 86.11%
The interesting figure belongs to Deepone who attended the strong early pace but could not finish anywhere near as well as Dallas Star.
Deepone was legless through a final furlong of 18.22secs compared to the 16.61secs recorded by the winner.
Dallas Star may have had a fitness edge on some of his rivals but this was a thoroughly game and strong staying performance from the winner who will always be best on soft ground and will stay further.
Ballylinch Stud ‘RedRocks’ Stakes (2000 Guineas Trial) Group 3: Battle Cry
Battle Cry looked a bit exposed coming into this and this was not a strong renewal of this race but he found some improvement to win for the first time in pattern company.
He will need to find a good deal more to win in better company. Pace in a race is always more important than position and this was a good example of that.
Battle Cry raced in last place (eighth) for the first five furlongs, seemingly poorly placed but he was being rated evenly by Ryan Moore as evidenced by his FSP which was recorded by Race IQ as being 100.16%.
This outlines that he ran the race evenly and, rather than quicken, he simply ran even splits through the race which took him to the front as others faltered. Every horse in the race bar Battle Cry finished the final two furlongs slower than they ran the previous five.
A penultimate furlong of 13.26secs took him to the front, this compared to the runner-up (Samuel Colt) who also came from the rear of the field and recorded 13.58secs. Such a relative strong finish was a function of a well-judged ride more than anything else.
My Mate Alfie shaped well in third place. He travelled strongly in first time headgear but was committed too far from home. Through furlongs four and five, he shot to the front moving to the lead from fourth place.
He was fastest in the race through the fourth furlong recording a 13.17secs split. This effort took its toll, and he finished weakly recording an FSP of 94.33%. The blinkers clearly fired him up and he would be of interest in the headgear back at six furlongs.
3. Virgin Bet Best Odds Daily British EBF Conditions Stakes: Notable Speech
One horse at Kempton on Saturday was eye-catching in terms of analytics and that was the win of the unbeaten colt Notable Speech.
This horse is emerging as a live 2000 Guineas horse, the data he has produced in his three starts showing that he has a smart turn of foot.
In all three of his starts he has been poorly placed in steadily run races but each time his potent acceleration has got him out of trouble.
On his debut at Kempton in January he quickened from fifth to first. His final two furlongs recorded as being 10.95secs and 11.13secs. This gave him an FSP of 113.59%.
On his second start again at Kempton he quickened from fifth to first in a slowly-run race recording a final two furlongs of 11.13secs and 11.60secs to give him an FSP of 109.17%. This weekend he did much the same flashing home in splits of 10.93secs and 11.08secs with an FSP of 113.86% reaching a top speed of 41.75mph. He is clearly a very fast horse who settles well and has a sharp turn of pace.
These three wins may well predicate a tilt at the 2000 Guineas where he would not be out of place although he does have to prove that he is as effective on turf. He is an exciting prospect.