ROYAL Ascot Trials Day at Naas last Sunday might live up to billing this year, and the track more than holds its own in producing winners at that prestige fixture: of the 441 Royal Ascot winners since 2010, 13 had their previous start at Naas, third overall among Irish courses, the Curragh a clear first with 42 winners, Leopardstown next with 14, Navan a distant fourth with four.

The influence of Naas has been growing lately, however, with seven winners at the royal meeting having their last start there since 2020 while its importance in the juvenile races is clear, eight of the 13 Ascot winners that prepped at Naas being two-year-olds, the straight track at both venues not dissimilar.

Of those two-year-olds that raced on Sunday last, Fairy Godmother would seem most likely to follow up at Ascot, well-backed to reverse previous course-and-distance maiden form with Sparkling Sea in the Coolmore Stud Irish EBF Fillies Sprint Stakes, winning by a neck. She was value for more than that as she had to wait for a run until the final furlong when she quickened up well in the middle of the track.

She would seem more Ascot material than the winner of the first, Treasure Isle, who was workmanlike in a conditions race but the pair, along with the winner of the Sole Power Sprint Stakes, Aesop’s Fables, had something in common, being Aidan O’Brien runners having their second start of the year and improving a chunk from seasonal debut.

Per Timeform ratings, Treasure Isle found 18lb from first to second start, Aesop’s Fables 16lb and Fairy Godmother 10lb, but even so Aesop’s Fables fell short of his official mark of 111, achieved via placed finishes in a pair of backend Group 1s.

Mitigating factors

There were a few mitigating factors that suggest he could improve further. The blinkers that seemed to bring about improvement last autumn were left off while he may have been at a disadvantage challenging up the centre of the track, the two outsiders that chased him home at odds of 14/1 and 150/1 looking to get the best of the ground on the near rail.

Aidan O’Brien said that this run may have still been needed, commenting that “he usually takes a few runs to get right … [and] we thought that it mightn’t happen today, but he might be ready for Ascot.”

It would be no surprise to see further improvement next month with the blinkers back on, though it is worth pointing out that sprints over the minimum trip are one of the few race types that O’Brien does not have a stellar record in.

Since 2008, the trainer is 11/119, a strike-rate of 9.2%, with his runners in group and listed races over five furlongs for three-year-olds and older in Ireland and Britain and backing them all would have resulted in a 60.59 points level-stakes loss.

Likely player

A more likely Ascot sprint player could be Lacken Stakes winner, Bucanero Fuerte, a likeable sort whose only blob was an explainable defeat in last year’s National Stakes when he went too hard.

He raced in the favoured part of the track last Sunday but there were other reasons to upgrade his performance; he was having his first run of the year against race-fit rivals while carrying a penalty, and he got little peace in the lead with Alabama pressing him for the first half of the race.

This win confirmed that he is a better horse than Givemethebeatboys, for all that one may improve for some headgear, as he finished ahead of him for the third time in three starts, and provided the ground is not rattling fast, he should have a decent shout in the Commonwealth Cup.

Away from the stakes races, there were some promising efforts in handicaps with Chicago Critic doing well to win the mile handicap for three-year-olds, coming from off the pace to beat four rivals that had been ridden handier, taking a big step forward for the better ground and being gelded.

Seasonal return

He had travelled strongly on seasonal return behind Purple Lily before disappointing in a Group 3 on his next start but that may have come too soon, and he got back on an upward curve here for a yard that does well with improving three-year-olds.

Of those behind him, the seventh Profit Refused showed enough to say she can win off 85.

Having her first start since last August when sixth in a race that worked out, she travelled nicely into the race only for the saddle to slip after which her jockey then had to nurse her home, but she still finished with running to give.

In the later mile handicap for older horses, the third Derry Lad made up a huge amount of late ground, and while part of that was down to the leaders slowing up after setting a strong pace, it was still a promising effort.

He won two valuable races in Britain that were part of the Skybet Summer Series last year, and could be headed back there soon.

NAAS was not the only track to offer Royal Ascot pointers last weekend, a couple of Leopardstown races on Friday evening are likely to have an impact on that meeting, one obvious, the other not so much.

The 2022 Ascot Gold Cup winner Kyprios won the Saval Beg Stakes in workmanlike fashion and unlike many of the Ballydoyle horses having their second start of the season seemed to have improved little from his first outing, his stablemate Queenstown getting two and a quarter lengths closer to him than he had at Navan.

Part of that is Kyprios himself, never the sort to win by far, while the run of the race was also relevant.

The pace was particularly steady, Timeform having Kyprios the fastest horse on the entire card over the final two furlongs, so a wide margin of victory was never likely.

The handicap for lady riders was more truly run and produced an impressive all-the-way winner in A Piece Of Heaven, returning better than ever after 168 days off.

There might be a temptation to knock the form, but the time was good, and Willie Mullins had a pair of good novice hurdlers in the field that were reverting to the flat while if anything the winner will be suited by going up in trip.

His trainer Barry Fitzgerald said he would be entered in all the Ascot staying races, and Irish horses with a jumps background have a fine record in those races, and not just when trained by Willie Mullins.

THE first major flat fixture of the year is the Guineas meeting at the Curragh and, as with many other classic weekends, Aidan O’Brien has been dominant.

In the last 10 years, but taking out the exceptional pandemic year of 2020, he has had 34 winners at this meeting, the next best trainer with nine.

One notable aspect to the profile of those winners is how few of them have come off a break if they already had a run in their careers: his record with horses returning from an absence of 60 days or more being three winners from 23 runners with just six places.

One of those winners was Adelaide in the 2014 Gallinule, but two others came in maidens, so if the Ballydoyle horses win the better races, it tends to be off a recent run.

Bear in mind

This is something to bear in mind with their runners in the Guineas this weekend.

Of the other yards, Jim Bolger, Ger Lyons and Johnny Murtagh have done best with nine winners apiece, Murtagh most notable in terms of profitability, backing all his runners resulting in a level-stakes profit of 28.5 points. Six of his nine winners came in handicaps.

Jessica Harrington and Joseph O’Brien have satisfactory records over the Guineas weekend, rather than better, seven and six winners respectively since 2014, but they have been among the hottest flat yards since the start of April this year.

Harrington with 18 winners from 88 runners and O’Brien 14 winners from 88 runners, good for clear second and third best of Irish yards.