STORM Elin made life tough for everyone at Navan on Saturday, Met Éireann reporting winds as high as 50km/h at times during the card, and it seemed to be a tailwind in the straight which suited horses on the pace and meant it was difficult to come from behind.
The only winner that really came further back in the field was Indiana Dream in the Durnin Workshop Beginners Chase and he ran out an impressive 13-length winner, always travelling strongly and overcoming a bad mistake at the fourth.
It was a visually-taking performance though not without caveats; his jumping is a little worry, and he is hardly one for an ante-post bet given his fragility, something his trainer commented on afterwards.
His margin of victory may also have been accentuated by the runner-up Saint Felicien not getting home while Hiddenvalley Lake looked his biggest danger when falling three out.
Another J.P. McManus-owned runner, Canal End, caught the eye in coming from off the pace to take third in the Bective Stud, Tea Rooms & Apartments Handicap Hurdle, the winner, runner-up and fourth all having been prominent throughout.
Strong in the betting
Despite coming from a yard that has been quiet, Peter Fahey’s last winner coming 47 runners ago on October 6th, he was very strong in the betting and made a smooth move from midfield on the final bend before not quite getting home.
It is hard to judge him too harshly on stamina grounds as this is one of the toughest tests over hurdles all season, run over three miles and a furlong at a stiff track, and he was stepping up from the minimum trip. A less-taxing race should see him to better effect.
He’s Ultimate is another that showed a little when fourth in the maiden hurdle won by his stablemate Caldwell Potter in a decent time, 12.7 seconds better than the preceding maiden hurdle run over the same trip.
He was not held up in the traditional sense as he raced around sixth position in the early stages but in Irish maiden hurdles that often constitutes a restrained ride.
Such races are rarely won by horses that are dropped out with the excellent Paul Fitzgerald (@Cav_TRF on X) putting together some stats on this recently.
From 1,854 Irish maiden hurdles from 2013 up to mid-October this year, just 6.3% of the winners came from mid-division or further back.
He’s Ultimate was having his first run since finishing second to It’s For Me in a point in April of last year, the third from that race now rated 132 in England, and might find more than normal improvement for this outing, especially with a step up in trip likely to suit.
ANOTHER reason why He’s Ultimate could improve for his run at Navan on Sunday is that his stablemates have been doing just that for most of the last month or more. Gordon Elliott did not have his typical high strike-rate with horses returning from a break in October and even into November, but they have been progressing a lot for a run since, all four of his winners at Navan last Saturday having their second outing of the season.
No Time To Wait was another that fit that profile when winning at Cork on Sunday and over last weekend his runners having their second start of the season registered the following form figures: 0113PP51321122.
No Time To Wait took a dramatic step forward from his initial start at Gowran, Timeform crediting him with 43lb of improvement on their ratings, for example, while Embittered, winner of the Foxrock Handicap Chase at Navan, was not far behind with 26lb of improvement for his first outing for the yard.
Fil Dor ran probably the best race of his life when runner-up to El Fabiolo in the Bar One Racing Hilly Way, another having his second start of the season for Elliott, and it is a micro-angle that is worth noting for another few weeks yet.
THERE were few Irish runners in Britain over the weekend, connections likely minding the weather forecast and not risking travel for meetings that could be abandoned, but Coko Beach ran a fine second in the Becher while Prince Zaltar filled the same spot in a handicap hurdle later on that Aintree card, picking up nearly £12,000 in prize money to make the trip worthwhile.
The Philip Rothwell-trained six-year-old shaped better than the result too, doing best of those held up, but while the horse himself is interesting, the year his trainer has had is more significant.
For casual followers of the racing that focus mainly on weekends, there can be a sense that Mullins and Elliott are the main, if not the only, show in town.
The former is a generational training talent, the latter a self-made success story, but there are many other competent and capable trainers in the country, and Rothwell has proved to be one of them this year.
Best year ever
2023 has been his best year ever, the only years that came close were in the early 2000s when he had 26 winners in 2007, 31 winners in 2008 and 28 winners in 2009.
His numbers dipped dramatically in the years since, to as low as just three winners in 2016, but there has been a big bounce back since 2020 and this year he has managed 36 winners in all, with a strike-rate of 7.8%, both career bests.
It is not hard to argue that those winners might have been harder to achieve in the era of mega trainers and Rothwell has also had to deal with more than his share of hardship this autumn, flood waters from Storm Babet back in October causing severe damage to his facilities, the trainer saying that ‘the bottom half of [his] gallop was completely destroyed.’
Nor has his big year come with highly-rated horses, the opposite in fact. His highest rated runner this year has a mark of just 128 per Horse Race Base while he has only five horses rated higher than 120.
Yet he has won multiple races with seven individual horses: Captains Nephew, Deons Diamond, Dorans River, El Champo, Prince Zaltar, Ricky Langford and Union Park.
Much-improved
The last-named of those was a non-runner in the Foxrock Handicap Chase at Navan on Saturday due to the heavy ground but has been a much-improved performer of late and shaped well on his recent start over fences at Cork, given a lot to do over a trip that was too sharp for him.
He looks handicapped to win again with the Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Chase, the opening race on the fourth day of the Leopardstown Christmas meeting, a possible target.
Rothwell has a decent record in that race too, having won it in 2021, and he had placed runners in 2019 and 2011.