THE masochist in me decided that the two races to look at ahead of final declarations for Christmas would be the two big Leopardstown handicaps, one old, the other new, though readers would be forgiven for thinking the Grade 1s might have been easier to sort.

The readiness of the Willie Mullins runners in the Paddy Power Chase is an interesting starting point for that race. Mullins has won the race three times since 2008 with each of those winners running in the previous 45 days, his three further placed horses having done the same.

The best any of his 18 runners returning from a longer break in that period managed was 11th.

My shortlist for the race comprises the two Martin Brassil horses, plus Hgranca De Thaix, Midnight Our Fred and Toss Again. Panda Boy is back for a third go at the race and should again do well though I suspect the Troytown was ideal for him while Desertmore House should finally get some good ground and shaped well over hurdles lately.

Distance suits

The step up to three miles should suit Hgranca De Thaix though some rain would help him, Midnight Our Fred was really impressive at Gowran last time while Toss Again has had a recent breathing operation and shaped with promise in a couple of runs in spring.

The new Neville Hotels Premier Handicap Hurdle run over two and a half miles on December 29th looks an excellent race and while plenty have chances, Sir Allen looks the pick of the prices currently around 25/1.

He was a good juvenile hurdler before dropping in the weights in his second season over hurdles, often shaping like a step up in trip would suit, and after coming back to form on the flat this autumn, looked an unlucky loser in the Brown Lad.

That Naas form could be important to this race with The Busy Fool also having a chance while No Looking Back is an outsider of note, his trainer having a good record in Christmas handicaps, and his last run in the Morgiana surely needed.

J.P. McManus’ runners round out my shortlist, with both Comfort Zone and So Scottish having obvious claims.

THE value of the form of the open races from Cheltenham were covered here on Saturday and now is the turn of the novice hurdlers and bumper horses.

They can often be the most interesting races to assess because not only are those horses going against older opposition, but they are often changing codes too.

A reminder that winners coming from a race does not necessarily mean it is solid form; for instance, the likes of Handstands and Jingko Blue have emerged as good novice chasers from what was the Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle last season, but neither ran their race on the day so can’t be used as boosts to the form.

This is not to say that Ballyburn has dodgy form as he was in a league of his own that day and ran a fast time but not many behind Ile Atlantique ran to their best then.

The Albert Bartlett has proved to be surprisingly deep form in recent months, given it didn’t look that strong on the day, weakened further by the favourite disappointing.

The first five home then pulled clear of the sixth and the four of those to run since all won on chase debut, two of them at graded level, while the seventh and eighth also won first time over fences.

Good prospect

The runner-up, The Jukebox Man, who shaped best for much of the way, looks a particularly good prospect judged on his first start at Newbury.

Things are nothing like as positive for the Supreme form. Aintree and Punchestown suggested it was a decent race with Mystical Power and Firefox fighting out Grade 1s but perhaps that was a form bubble and both of those have been beaten recently.

Slade Steel has been beaten twice at odds-on over fences while Asian Master has also been beaten although further should suit that one.

It remains relatively early days and these are young horses, but the initial signs are on the negative side.

The Triumph Hurdle is not a novice hurdle per se, but it should be pointed out that the four-year-olds are a strong crop generally, the winner Majborough looking a high-class prospect at Fairyhouse recently but at a lower level four-year-old handicap winners popping up with regularity like Wodhooh at Cheltenham and Jeaniemacaroney at Thurles recently.

Bumper blip

The 2023 Champion Bumper produced 19 horses that won over hurdles subsequently from 21 runners, the exceptions – bizarrely – being A Dream To Share and Fact To File, but the returns from the 2024 race have so far been nothing like as positive.

Jasmin De Vaux landed the odds at Navan on return in workmanlike fashion while Romeo Coolio disappointed in the Royal Bond having seemed to arrive between the final two full of running.

Sounds Victorious and Fishery Lane were both beaten at odds-on in maiden hurdles, though perhaps needed the run, and the best prospects from the race currently seem The Yellow Clay (for whom things went wrong on the day) and Bill Joyce.

MAIDEN hurdles are as much an Irish Christmas tradition as the 12 pubs and midnight Mass, and 14 of them will take place over the four days of Christmas racing.

Though many of those races will have big fields, punters tend to find them manageable when compared with handicaps as the meaningful contenders can usually be discerned quickly, something that is helpful at a time of year when it is hard to know what day it is.

Of the 148 maiden hurdles run at Leopardstown, Limerick and Down Royal in the month of December over the last 10 years, 130 were won by horses that started 8/1 or shorter with the big yards predictably dominating.

Willie Mullins is 35 winners from 116 runners (30.1% strike-rate, -26.65 level stakes), Henry de Bromhead is 24 winners from 112 runners (21.4% strike-rate, +61.16 level stakes albeit with a 50/1 winner) with Gordon Elliott 19 winners from 149 (12.8% strike-rate, -74.8 level stakes).

Elliott does poorly in Leopardstown maiden hurdles (four winners from 74 runners), perhaps because most of his best novice hurdlers have already won their maidens at other tracks pre-Christmas, and it should be pointed out that Leopardstown is the National Hunt track where he has the lowest strike-rate off any Irish track since 2014.

In that period, he has hit at a rate of 10.1% while having returns of 20% or higher at four tracks: Down Royal, Downpatrick, Thurles and Clonmel.

Christmas handicaps

As to the handicaps, there have been 200 December handicaps across the three Christmas racing tracks since 2014 and while the big three of Mullins, Elliott and de Bromhead won 52.7% of the maiden hurdles in that time, that number falls to 12% of all handicaps.

No trainer has registered more than 11 handicap wins in that period so they are much more open and there are a few names to keep in mind.

Eric McNamara has had six winners from 56 runners with 13 places for a level-stakes profit of 10.71 points, five of those winners at Limerick and he has had a winner in all but one of the last six years.

Oliver McKiernan has five winners from 30 runners along with 13 places for a level-stakes profit of 16.67 points, while Eoin McCarthy is four from 20 with eight places, all four of his winners coming in handicap hurdles at Limerick since 2020.

Seamus Fahey has done well with a small team, four winners from 12 runners with 6 places, for a level-stakes profit of 43 points.