HEADING into spring, Aidan O’Brien had what seemed the strongest group of three-year-olds of his storied career but things have not gone to plan in the early classics, his five runners in the Guineas in England and France doing no better than fourth, City Of Troy and Henry Longfellow particularly disappointing.

Their performances led to consternation, but could it simply be a case that they are needing a run? O’Brien commented post-Newmarket that he had treated City Of Troy as ‘too much of a god’, apt given his name, in spring while he seemed aware that Henry Longfellow was not fully ready ahead of ParisLongchamp last weekend.

His comments in Sunday’s Racing Post (‘Henry Longfellow is just about ready to start off. We’ve been happy with his work, but we do feel he will come forward from Sunday. We haven’t trained him like there’s no tomorrow, so he will improve.’) were more like something he would say ahead of a good horse returning at the Curragh in March or April.

It has been a very wet spring in Ireland and trainers could be forgiven for being behind schedule with fitness though the raw strike-rate stats for O’Brien are inconclusive.

Second time out

His first-time out record with runners in Ireland and Britain up to last Sunday is 16 winners and 36 places from 69 runners, respective win and place strike-rates of 23.2% and 52.2%, while those horses second time out at eight winners and 19 places form 30 runners, win and place strike-rates of 26.7% and 63.3%.

There is improvement there but not massively so, but ratings rather than raw strike-rate capture it better.

Using Timeform ratings, 26 of his 30 second-time-out runners have improved for a run with the progression sizeable in most cases; the average improvement was 9.3lb with the median 8.5lb.

There have been some big jumps forward, and often in defeat, with six horses finding at least a stone better form while also getting beaten: Everlasting, Queenstown, Greenland, Port Fairy, Agenda and Rubies Are Red.

Maybe the stars of last season have not trained on but drawing that conclusion off one run might be premature, and this is hardly a new pattern with the Ballydoyle runners.

THE flat action has stepped up this past week, not least in the handicap scene, with a couple of premier contests at Cork and Naas worthy of analysis.

The Mallow Handicap over seven furlongs may not have been as strong as anticipated and the going change likely played a part; trainers declared their runners on slow ground, but ice-cream van weather saw it dry out all the way to good and four of the 19 declared horses came out.

Perhaps a few of the others might have done likewise had the race not been worth €59,000 to the winner. Horses like Janoobi, Stag Night and Tosen Wish among those that would have preferred it softer, the last-named in particular looking in need of a stiffer test.

That said, Kings Time was a good winner for the rampant Jessica Harrington yard and the comments from the trainer afterwards – ‘[he is] a very big horse who has now matured into his frame’ – suggests there could be more to come.

He is unexposed for his age, having had just six starts in three seasons, and deserves credit not only for winning on his first run since last August, but also for coming from behind off a steady pace for a straight track premier handicap, both Course Track and Timeform having his finishing speed around 107% when something closer to 102% could be expected.

No better record

Harrington mentioned Ascot handicaps for the winner afterwards and while those races can be very competitive, often drawing fields of 20 or more runners, few have a better recent record in such races from a small number of runners.

Since 2017, she has won four such races from 17 runners, and while two of those winners came at the weaker Shergar Cup, Njord and Villanova Queen were successful at premier meetings.

The ground was also drying out at Naas on Saturday but even so the sprint track rode more like a slow ground fixture, riders keen to get to the near side rail which caused its share of carnage for hold up horses.

Eclipse Emerald got a clear run at things to win the Declan Landy Fencing Handicap, the runner-up Kortez Bay not so much, the pair of them franking the Curragh maiden form of Follow Me that had already been boosted by Betsen.

The interesting ones were those that met trouble in behind, however. The fourth Ohailbhic looked at worst the second-best horse on the day, and perhaps the match of the winner. Held up in last, he travelled strongly but got no luck at any point before finishing strongly, his final furlong the fastest of all in the race.

The seventh Verified looked on a stiff mark but he looked sharpened up in first-time blinkers and was another that met significant trouble, never getting to open up until the final half furlong. Six furlongs on decent ground seems his thing.

PUNCHESTOWN marks the end of the jumps season for the big-name winter horses but for others it is the start of a summer campaign, a launching pad that will take them to tracks like Killarney, Roscommon, Tramore, and – of course – Galway.

The Grade 1 performers from that meeting were covered here over the last few weeks but there were other notable efforts from the lesser races, with the headline horse to consider being Perceval Legallois for the Galway Plate.

He looked well-handicapped on his DRF effort in February, and had every chance before falling at the last. He and the eventual winner had pulled clear at the time, but there were questions over whether he would be able to show it when turning up for the novice handicap chase at Punchestown.

Coming off an absence of three months, his jumping was a concern as he had fallen in two of his previous four chases, but he was strong in the betting and was given a ride that suggested neither fitness nor jumping was an issue, Mark Walsh sending him to the lead and looking to make all.

His jumping was electric and came while setting a fast pace, the time for the race comparing well with the other chases over the same trip on the card, and he was unfortunate to run into an even better treated rival that also jumped brilliantly in Hgranca De Thaix.

A previous winner over fences at Ballybrit, with previous form at the summer festival too, he looks ideal for the Plate.

Handicap ideal

Another horse with Galway in mind could be Enniskerry. Well-backed for the Plate last year, he travelled strongly into the race before not getting home and finishing seventh, he was having his first start since in the two-mile handicap chase at Punchestown when placing third.

He travelled as well as any and just couldn’t reel in two that raced on the pace on a day when it was difficult to come from behind, his jockey not hard on him when his winning chance was gone. Something like the two miles, two furlongs handicap chase on the Sunday of Galway would look ideal, for all he would have plenty of weight.

Walk on

The two and a half mile handicap hurdle on the Saturday of Punchestown was run at a steady pace and Western Walk was better positioned than most in the front half of the field but even so he looked to hit the front too soon on the run to the last before finishing fourth, not ideally suited by racing wide on the final turn either.

His record since joining Jonathan Sweeney has been one of improvement despite having nearly a year off in that time, and he looks well-handicapped after getting just a 1lb rise for this.

Don’tstopthemusic was one of the most impressive bumper winners at Punchestown but the horse that chased him home, Coral River, deserved to finish closer having met trouble down the inner, the ground on that part of the track seemingly slower as the rain came.

He should be well able to pick up at least a summer bumper, especially with the Tom Mullins yard back among the winners lately.