GORDON Elliott has owned the Down Royal Festival of Racing recently, his eight winners this time around three behind his best of 11 last season, but up there with any of his previous tallies at the meeting.
It is fair to point out that no one really takes him across the two days and the SPs of his eight winners support this; seven were sent off 11/10 or shorter, the exception a 4/1 winner in an 18-runner handicap.
There is no doubt that he runs his best horses here, however. Of the eight winners, two were already Grade 1 winners, three more Grade 1 runners-up, another was a Grade 2 winner, while the final two came in bumpers.
His highest-rated horse of all, the 170 chaser Gerri Colombe, did get beaten in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase, looking troubled from an early stage, seemingly not travelling heading out on the second circuit.
He has been consistent throughout his career, however, and appeals as the type to bounce back, while he was not far off winning a Gold Cup in spring.
Run was needed
With his best efforts in his two chase seasons coming at Cheltenham and Aintree, he looks a horse that gets better as the season goes on, while his late weakness on the show, drifting from 2/5 to 8/11, suggested the run was needed.
His under-performance left the way clear for Envoi Allen to add to his superb record at the meeting, the speedy three miles just what he wants, while Hewick was done for toe in the final stages, having returned from a summer break in good form.
John Hanlon mentioned the Betfair Chase for Hewick in the days afterwards, provided the ground says decent, and a bet on him for that is closely tied to the weather, not only for Hewick himself but also for his rivals, a number of those ahead of him in the betting like Grey Dawning, Royale Pagaille and L’Homme Presse all better suited by soft.
Forecasts can change quickly, but the race is only a fortnight away and the weather has yet to turn with the long-term outlook largely dry, while his form is up there with most in the race.
One thing that would suit him at Haydock is the increased emphasis on stamina – the time for the Down Royal race on Saturday was 6.03, while last year’s Betfair Chase (run on good to soft) took 6.41.
Elliott’s other proven chaser at Down Royal on Saturday was Found A Fifty, who started his campaign in good style, conceding a stone to a race-fit Galway Plate winner rated 147 and jumping very well.
He is inclined to go right at his fences, but thus far it has not hindered him on left-handed tracks, while he provided another boost to the Arkle form.
That race may not have looked the strongest beforehand, the favourite Gaelic Warrior having run no race on his previous start, but it has worked out well since.
Most interesting
Perhaps the most interesting Elliott runner over the two days was Brighterdaysahead, not so much for what she did, but the very fact that she was there, running at the minimum trip over hurdles, connections having done a volte-face with her seemingly headed for a season over fences around intermediate distances.
I am inclined to be positive on this change of plan, as it is not something that has been done lightly, especially with the raft of options available to a mare like Brighterdaysahead.
Elliott’s interview following her win in the Bottlegreen Hurdle was fascinating in this regard.
He started by saying that the Champion Hurdle was not out of question, as she has ‘a high cruising speed’ before introducing the idea of his being pigeon-holed as a trainer – ‘I get tarred with training a more staying type of horse’ – adding that she might only have one or two runs before Cheltenham.
Trainer motivation is interesting here. Is Elliott looking to prove a point here or is Brighterdaysahead showing him more speed than had previously been the case? I strongly suspect the latter, though his record in the Champion Hurdle adds another layer to the discussion. He has run seven horses in the Champion Hurdle in his career, four of them making the three, though a number of that group (Apple’s Jade, Teahupoo, Zanahiyr and Irish Point), if not all stayers, were at least effective over further.
Friday’s race may not have told us an awful lot about Brighterdaysahead, as her main market rival Daddy Long Legs raced too keen and hurdled poorly, while her stablemate King Of Kingsfield was ridden with the next day in mind, having missed some time in the run-up to the race.
Pressure on
One notable aspect was that Sam Ewing was not going to allow the race to develop into a sprint, keeping the pressure on the leader early before taking over the lead after three hurdles.
It seems connections learned from their most recent attempt at the minimum trip in the Dawn Run, a race that looks suspect form, the pace notably steady and Brighterdaysahead much too keen, herself and Jade De Grugy showing what they could really do on their next starts.
I would not use that race in any way to judge what Brighterdaysahead can do at two miles in a more strongly-run contest, and it seems likely we will see her in such a race sooner rather than later against the geldings, even if she has to make the pace herself.
The market reaction to all this, in the Champion Hurdle at least, was quite muted, the expectation being that she will take on the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham, but a big performance in one of those two-mile Grade 1s at Leopardstown could change all that.
KALA Conti was the biggest price of the Elliott winners at Down Royal, but the most interesting aspect of her performance in winning the Eventsec Handicap Hurdle on Saturday might be her age, as she became another four-year-old winner of an open handicap hurdle in 2024.
This pattern came into focus at the Punchestown Festival, where there were two such winners, along with Eagle Fang landing an all-aged novice hurdle, and continued in the Galway Hurdle, where four-year-olds finished first and second.
So far in 2024, four-year-olds have a win strike-rate of 10.9% in open handicap hurdles in Ireland for a level-stakes profit of 48.51 points and an actual over expected of 1.40 though this isn’t backed up by their place strikerate, which is 21.2% versus 23.9% for all other ages.
Still, it might be something to bear in mind, not only in handicap hurdles between now and the end of the year, but also to consider how the best of their age group will perform against older rivals.
Top table
Majborough and Sir Gino looked at the top of the table at the end of last season, though Kargese should not be forgotten; she was kept busy last season, building on her Christmas run to win at the DRF before shaping like the best filly for a long way in the Triumph.
She spoiled her chance by over-racing at Aintree before bouncing back at Punchestown, doing well to come from off a steady pace to win going away.
It is also worth pointing out that one of the Supreme favourites, Salvator Mundi, is from this cohort. He finished second to Sir Gino on debut in France in April 2023, but was off for 11 months before a decent effort when sixth in the Triumph.
Willie Mullins then gave him a maiden hurdle run at Tipperary in May, where he won by 62 lengths, and it would be no surprise to see him reappear in something like the Royal Bond.