EVENTS at Irish Champions Festival got in-depth coverage throughout this paper last Saturday, but reflecting on the meeting a week on, there was something notable that didn’t happen: the participation of Paddy Twomey runners.

The Twomey yard has been among the most upwardly mobile in Irish flat racing this decade and it was disappointing they had only one runner over the weekend, Purple Lily in the Blandford, and she ran a satisfactory third without suggesting there was a whole lot more to come.

The trainer’s MO at this point is clear; in the main, he does not run horses that can’t make the frame, but there are times when this sort of campaigning could be too conservative.

None of this is to suggest Twomey is having a bad season; a bit like the run of Purple Lily, it is grand rather than anything better.

Twomey seemed well aware of this in an RTV interview with Donn McClean prior to ICF, commenting that his season has ‘gone okay [but I would] like to have a few more winners… [we are] down to 25% strike-rate or something’.

Compared with previous years, and going back as far as 2020 when the yard started performing to a high level, the numbers (which take in all Irish flat runners that calendar year) are largely similar, any dip likely to be explained by variance (see table below).

Twomey suggested in the same RTV interview that he felt he had more than his share of placed horses, though this is not borne out by the numbers, as he has had 19 winners with 19 runners-up and 10 thirds, whereas someone like Johnny Murtagh has a stronger case for feeling unlucky with 34 winners, as against 54 runners-up and 45 thirds.

Nor is it a case of more horses, more problems, the idea that sustaining a high strike rate becomes more difficult as the number of the horses grows, as Twomey has had four fewer individual runners this year than last, allowing there is over a month of the flat season to go.

Not as good

The most obvious explanation, if one is needed, is that this year’s two-year-olds are not as good as last year’s and are well behind the older horses in terms of races won.

In 2024, Twomey’s juveniles have supplied him with two winners from 19 runners, a strike rate of 10.5%, whereas all his other runners have won 17 races from 61 runners, a strike-rate of 27.9%.

In that group of two-year-olds, there are 10 individual horses, the two winners being American Bar at Listowel in June and J’adore Chris at Roscommon in August. The group is largely made up of expensive purchases; eight of them cost at least €98,000, with four of them making €200,000 or more.

There are likely other juveniles left to run, perhaps plenty of them, as the trainer said he had as many as ‘55 or 60’ two-year-olds in this paper back in April, with the hope that more would be added at the breeze-ups, but they will need to do better if his typical high strike rate is to be maintained.

Last year’s juveniles were a stronger crop. As a group, they won 15 of their 45 starts with 10 of the 18 individual runners winning a race, though their achievements this season have been only satisfactory, albeit that they have encountered misfortune.

Of those 10 individual winners, two moved yards (Juxtaoposition, Gunzburg), with another two being dead (Noche Magica, Letsbefrankaboutit), two more (King Cuan, Porters Place) are yet to have a run this year.

Deepone had one start, in the Ballysax, leaving A Lilac Rolla, Purple Lily and One Look. A Lilac Rolla won the Priory Belle before twice being placed at Group 1 level, Purple Lily won a conditions race at Naas in March and has followed up with a number of good efforts in Group races, notably finishing third in the Irish Oaks.

One Look has been the disappointing one, at least in light of her wildly impressive win on debut in the Goffs Million, winning two of her six starts at three, the main one being the Ruby Stakes at Killarney.

Outlandish

The thing that is always mentioned with Twomey is his strike rate and it really is outlandish when compared to every other flat yard in the country. Since 2020, his strike rate with Irish flat runners is 27.8%, the next best trainers with at least 100 runners being Aidan O’Brien on 21.8% and Ger Lyons on 16.7%.

Pure strike rate numbers have their limitations, however, and I write this as someone who refers to them extensively in this column each week. These numbers can mislead in both directions and examples of this are everywhere.

Take the trainer with a yard full of horses that will never win a maiden. That trainer is effectively making themselves at least zero from three with every horse for their necessary maiden runs before they have a realistic chance in a handicap.

At the other end of the scale is the trainer that has a horse to sell and needs to run well on its early maiden starts as a shop window.

The horse does this, either winning or hitting the frame, and the trainer has done his job and gets the horse sold, but is now losing one of their better inmates, which might lower future strike-rate.

Better record

Less common are examples of where high strike rates can be inflated, but they potentially exist.

No trainer has a better record in conditions races than Paddy Twomey; since 2020, he is 22 wins from 52 runners in them for a strike rate of 42.3% and he stated that he ‘wants to win every race they can’ in the previously mentioned interview.

It is hard to argue that he hasn’t maximised an individual case like One Look in terms of winning prize money as her efforts this year suggest that she is a high 90s filly rather than better and to win €610,000 in one stroke has to be regarded as success.

But looking at the broader picture, nothing matters more in racing than the big races and many of these big races happen outside Ireland, whereas Twomey has only ever had 16 runners in Britain, including just one in 2024.

His approach to training, and moreso placing, is unique, with the emphasis seemingly on winning any race rather than the bigger races, and is thus difficult to assess as we haven’t seen it before, but there are times when it feels like the horses should just run in the best races.

LAST week’s meeting at Naas was an unusual one, the only all-juvenile card in Ireland, and versions of it have been around since 2016, the fixture throwing up some good winners over the years, including Saxon Warrior, Magna Grecia and Japan.

The big Ballydoyle hope this time, Galveston, disappointed in the maiden for unraced horses, but it is possible we saw a good prospect win the previous race, Cercene for the Joe Murphy yard.

She had run a cracker on debut at Gowran in late July, albeit not learning much, getting behind early and still second last of 16 turning in, pulled to the centre of the track and making up lots of late ground to finish third.

Educate

After missing a couple of engagements due to ground, she returned after a 54-day break here, after connections had walked the track, and Gary Carroll was keen to educate her, the filly breaking well but taken back to midfield, never getting cover and again forced to challenge alone up the middle of the track with nothing to bring her into the race.

She seemed to struggle with the ridges in the straight, but fairly flew home in the closing stages; visually it looked the best final furlong of the day and that was backed up by her being the only runner on the card to dip under 12 seconds for the final furlong.

Comments from Joe Murphy jnr suggest they hold her in high regard and has been working back from the Weld Park Stakes with her and, while that may come too soon, she does look stakes class.