THERE can hardly have been a card last season that produced more subsequent big race winners than Hatton’s Grace day; not only did six Cheltenham Festival winners run that day but there were also winners of the Galway Hurdle, the Manifesto Chase and the Punchestown Stayers Hurdle to mention a few.
Basic probability suggests that is unlikely to be the case this time around but perhaps a couple of Gordon Elliott-trained novice hurdlers are the most notable ones to take from the weekend.
The Royal Bond looked an ordinary running relative to previous years, not least because the Willie Mullins team was weak, but Farren Glory won despite conditions being less than ideal and looked a cut above the rest for all his winning margin was only a length and a half. Both his previous hurdles efforts had come around two and a half miles, his win at Clonmel suggesting he would be best kept to that trip and if anything upped in distance, but he still coped with the drop to two miles despite losing his position before the turn-in and making a mistake at the last.
Staying type
This was not the sort of trip a staying type should be able to get away with, but he did so anyway, and it was interesting to hear Elliott say afterwards that he is unlikely to go for what would seem the next obvious target, the Future Champions at Leopardstown on December 27th.
The trainer said: “Leopardstown might not be the track for him on quick ground”, perhaps an early attempt to lobby for watering, and it is not the first time he has made such a comment in recent years.
Farren Glory created only ripples in the Cheltenham ante-post markets, however, compared to the win of Firefox in Saturday’s two-mile maiden hurdle.
Everything right
The betting suggested a head-to-head with Ballyburn and the race quickly developed into same, nothing else getting involved despite the slow pace, and Firefox did everything right here, jumping and travelling well, only needing to be pushed out in the finish.
He had fitness and hurdling experience on his side, unlike the runner-up Ballyburn, who might be a more interesting horse to consider.
A drifter in the market through the day, he was nothing like as sharp as Firefox in the race, over-racing and making a mistake two out, for all he kept on well late.
Perhaps the run was badly needed though Mullins tends not to train that way with his top novice hurdlers, the ones that are going to go on to Cheltenham success typically winning, and winning impressively, on their first start over hurdles for him.
In the last 20 years, he has won 15 Grade 1 novice hurdles at Cheltenham and only Ebaziyan, a 33/1 winner of the Supreme in 2007, failed to win on his initial start over hurdles for the trainer.
It is possible that something has changed this year and some of his are taking a run more than the past but another possibility - that Firefox is just a very good horse – seems at least as likely.
THE standout clash from last weekend was between Impaire Et Passe and Teahupoo in the Hatton’s Grace, and in a race that tends to produce repeat winners, it was the proven performer rather than the potential star that came out on top.
That was no great surprise given one was sent off 85/40 and the other 4/5, the late betting bringing them closer together, but the way the race was run, emphasising speed, might suggest they would have finished the other way around.
The runners in the Hatton’s Grace completed the sectional from three out at least a second faster than the three other hurdle races on the card, despite those races being run over half a mile shorter, yet it was still that horse that had been running over staying trips rather than the prospective champion hurdler that came out on top.
Inefficient manner
That does not tell the whole story however as Impaire Et Passe seemed more in need of the run and raced in an inefficient manner, always keener than Paul Townend wanted, while Jack Kennedy was able to control the race despite racing behind his main rival, pressing him to the front sooner than ideal.
It would be wrong to say that Impaire Et Passe lost nothing in defeat here because this run did seem to put a cap on him, something that had not been apparent in his previous five-run unbeaten streak, but this was still an excellent effort though.
Where he goes next is unclear. A drop back to two miles seems the obvious route but whether connections want to have him and State Man getting into a battle, with a likely clash with Constitution Hill on the horizon, remains to be seen.
The interesting postscript to the Hatton’s Grace was the surprising revelation from both trainer and owner of Teahupoo that their charge would not run again until Cheltenham.
Teahupoo has proven a robust sort since arriving in Ireland, running regularly, but Elliott said afterwards that the Galmoy may have taken the edge off him ahead of the Cheltenham last season, and his record of six wins from six starts after a break of 50 days or more might give that some credence.
I am no expert in the biorhythms of horses but being fresh in early winter and spring can be two different things though this is an intriguing plan worth trying though perhaps a more basic preference is more central to him showing his best.
He has won all seven starts on ground Timeform rate as soft or worse judged on times, their description in last season’s Stayers Hurdle only good-soft, and he will need plenty of rain ahead of that race again in 2024.
Letsbeclear - give him another chance
ONE doesn’t like to take too much away from the winner of any race, but it was hard not to think that the third Grade 1 of last weekend, the Drinmore, was a sub-standard affair, and I Am Maximus won through the frailties of the rest.
He deserves credit for winning against race-fit rivals over a trip short of his best but only Found A Fifty seemed to turn up and his jumping was no better than okay, while Sharjah underperformed after a mini-break on ground that was likely too soft.
Likely winner
Letsbeclearaboutit, in some ways, is the most interesting runner to consider, not least because he went through 95% of the race looking the most likely winner, leading over the second last going well before emptying tamely, though not without trading 1/3 in-running.
There seem to be four possible explanations for this effort. Perhaps he is simply not as good as he looked at Cork last time or maybe there was some physical issue, such was the rapidity with which he stopped, though nothing has been reported since.
He might prefer a shorter trip, something that seems unlikely based on his hurdle form, though Gavin Cromwell had been making noises about him showing more pace since going chasing and entered him in the Grade 1 over two miles and a furlong at Leopardstown on St Stephen’s Day. The theory that might have most credibility however is that he didn’t run to form because of a third quick run.
His Cork win was deeply impressive and came in a fast time so may have taken a lot out of him and I might be inclined to give him another chance, provided he does not return to the track too quickly for his next start.