LAST weekend at Punchestown was one to restore the faith of National Hunt followers, a faith that has sometimes been knocked in even the most ardent believers, and assessing the outcome and future impact of the two brilliant Grade 1s depends on how you weight the two Ps: potential and proven form.

It was potential that came out on top last weekend, though it may not always be that way under different conditions, but supporters of the younger horses will be thrilled with how they performed starting out in open company.

Brighterdaysahead had a run going into the Morgiana, but she did plenty wrong in her jumping, going left through and jumping few hurdles cleanly, notable mistakes at the fourth and again three out. The only time she was straight at a hurdle was when State Man drew alongside her at the last and that was by far her best jump, while ironically the runner-up made an error there, one of very few in his recent runs.

Brighterdaysahead overcomes some less than fluent jumping to win the Unibet Morgiana Hurdle \ Healy Racing

Having something on her outside might be help for Brighterdaysahead, if she goes right-handed again, and it looks like she will be better with a lead, something both Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy commented on afterwards.

Even knowing that she is not ideally suited by making the running, they have twice sent her forward this season, looking to avoid the slow gallop that played a part in her sole defeat thus far in the Dawn Run Novices, though it could be argued that she has to prove she handles Cheltenham too.

I am not really expecting her to meet State Man again the short term. Elliott seemed cool on the idea of Leopardstown, saying the track might be “too sharp” for her, and the two-mile Grade 1 hurdle there on the final day of the Christmas meeting is on the inner track.

She avoided the track entirely last year and had a mid-season break and something similar seems planned this time around, keeping her fresh not only for Cheltenham but also Liverpool, the Aintree Hurdle perhaps the most suitable race in the calendar for her, over the same course-and-distance as her signature novice hurdle performance.

Stellar renewal

If the Morgiana was a good race, it feels right to call the John Durkan a great one, four horses coming clear, two of them all potential, the other two proven.

There was much discussion in the run-up to the race about the fitness of various runners and one thought afterwards was that Willie Mullins’ version of needing the run might be different to everyone else’s. He has now won this race eight times in the last 10 years, and each of the eight was coming off an absence of at least 200 days. Something to bear in mind for next year. It seems likely that Spillane’s Tower will improve more than those from the big yards, his trainer saying both before and after that he had not been on grass since the previous Punchestown Festival, though Fact To File has had fewer lifetime starts, eight versus 13 for Spillane’s Tower.

Galopin Des Champs and Fastorslow are just one year older than Fact To File, but have more ‘chase miles’ in the legs, though the former especially is more proven over stamina-sapping trips, both Fact To File and Spillane’s Tower looking fast by staying chase standards.

If this reads like I am going round in circles on the John Durkan and which horse will come out on top next time, then you are correct, as I don’t have a strong view on that, potential and proven closely matched, but the third P – price – might be most important of all.

The Gold Cup market has reacted to the performances of the two McManus runners to the point where they are passed at this point; if a punter backed them before Sunday’s race, then they are in a good position, but the prices look right now. Perhaps the horse to go with in that market is the one that had his form enhanced in absentia, Monty’s Star. He got not one but two form boosts in the John Durkan, having been beaten by the McManus pair in his last two starts and, while there is a chance that Fact To File and Spillane’s Tower will be stretched by three miles and two furlongs, he seems sure to relish it; 20/1 at the moment looks a bet.

It might also be worth forgiving Fastorslow this effort, should he be supplemented to the King George.

He may have been beaten at a short price and only finished fourth, but I would argue he achieved more in form terms here than when winning the race last year; that was a slow-paced contest that told us little, whereas this was more truly-run.

He may have won first-time-out last year, but again that was not a race to draw conclusions from and his broader form suggests a horse that improves for a run.

He is unlikely to face any of the three that beat him at Kempton and would have the best form on offer.

HENRY De Bromhead had good success in maiden hurdles last weekend at Punchestown, winning all three such races, each of his winners nicely backed.

There is a seasonality to this, as it is very much his time of the year in maiden hurdles. From the start of the 2019/20 jumps season to last weekend, De Bromhead has won 164 maiden hurdles in all (third among all trainers), with his two top months being November (26) and December (22).

From January through to March, his monthly tallies dip to just eight, eight and four, his strike rates reflecting the same. In November and December, he wins maiden hurdles at an 18.1% rate, but in the next three months that drops to 13%.

Gordon Elliott follows a similar pattern. He has won 267 maiden hurdles (second overall), and his top three months were November (43), October (40) and December (34), with January a distant fourth. 43.8% of all his maiden hurdle winners came in the last three months of the year, with his win strike rate being 20.4% in that time, 16.6% in all other months.

Willie Mullins (282 maiden hurdle winners) follows a different pattern. January is his top month with 52 wins, which takes a bit of doing given how little racing there is at that time of year, and he does well in these races into February and even March. His win strike rate in the first three months is 42.8%, while in the other nine months of the year it is 31.9%.

As to De Bromhead’s individual winners from the weekend, Butch Cassidy is the one that stands out. The trainer made an interesting comment post-race that he had not been able to run him in a schooling hurdle beforehand, yet he was still strong in the market.

Butch Cassidy (far side) continues a strong run of maiden hurdle winners for Henry de Bromhead \ Healy Racing

With that in mind, his jumping should sharpen up from this, but he showed an excellent attitude to beat a rival that had won two bumpers.

Looking back at his bumper win at Ballinrobe, he did well to come out on top, as the tight track didn’t suit and the form has been franked by the runner-up, who since moved to Paul Nicholls and won the bumper on Badger Beers day at Wincanton. Butch Cassidy looks graded novice hurdle material at this point.