THE Christmas fixtures at Limerick got short shrift here last week, the focus instead on Leopardstown, but with the main meeting at Naas last Sunday abandoned due to fog, there is time now to look back at those four days.
Most of the big races there have been well-covered already so perhaps attention on some – hopefully – more subtle eye-catchers from the mid- and low-grade races are the way to go, allowing that the ground there was typically testing and some of these might need time to overcome their exertions.
There were some expensive types in good colours in the opening maiden hurdle for mares on December 27th but not all of them performed to market expectations though the beautifully-named Pallas Athene is worth forgiving as she overdid it on the pace, the race sectional from three out here was nearly five seconds slower than the next slowest hurdle race on the card despite them getting the freshest ground.
It looked a big advantage to be played late here and the trouble that the winner Judiceuse Allen met on the turn-in might have been to her advantage as it meant she was the last to make her move while the third, Hurricane Bailey, shaped with lots of promise and is the one to take from it.
Big move
She was played late herself but not late enough, being held up early but making a big move to lead two out before running green down to the last and headed in the final 100 yards, hitting 1/3 in running. This was a big effort on her first start and attracted support for a yard that does very well with their small team.
There were a few to shape better than the result in the two-mile handicap hurdle won by Johngus later on the same card, the winner seen to good effect having been ridden forward off a steady pace.
The runner-up, The Truant, was given a lot do and finished better than anything, shaping best on the day, and should in theory be able to win now his mark has dropped back in the mid-90s but it is concerning that he is only 1/34 lifetime and perhaps the less-exposed fourth, Lorca, is more interesting.
A winner on the flat for Andrew Balding in 2021, he was making his handicap debut here having shown a little on his third run over hurdles at Thurles in November when fifth to Westport Cove but was sent off a big price under an inexperienced rider.
He too made up plenty of ground from rear without getting a hard time and he did the bulk of his running down the chewed up inside part of the track, this the second last race on the card.
This meeting did not seem to have the pronounced inside/outside bias that can sometimes be the case at Limerick, but the inner rail did look the slower part of the track towards the end of the December 28th card, and a couple of runners from the last two races ran well in the circumstances.
Better ground
The closing bumper on the third day of the meeting took place on ground that had been well-used, and Paddy Mullins led most of the field in racing off the rail in search of better ground.
The winner, The Story So Far, raced on that part of the track and was well-suited by the emphasis on stamina but the sixth, Barton Snow, appeared stretched by the trip while racing down the inside.
He had caught the eye on his previous start in a Galway maiden hurdle that worked out well and it was a similar story here, racing keenly in rear but moving strongly into the race to hit the front going best two furlongs out, before weakening late, though not before trading at 6/5 in-running.
This run was much better than it looked, the extended trip not really suiting, and the ground slow enough, and there are races to be won with him.
The final one to note is a much more obvious unlucky loser, Now Is The Hour, in the two-mile, three-furlong maiden hurdle on December 29th. Gavin Cromwell’s runner was the subject of a sustained gamble from 18/1 into 9/4 and looked the winner when sent on going best turning in only to fall at the second last.
Conor McNamara, rider of the winner, Thegraveyardbookie, who came from off the pace, suggested afterwards that the leaders had gone too hard and that is backed up by the times, the field by far the slowest from three out of the five races over hurdles on the card, but that is not to say that Now Is The Hour would not have won anyway, and he should be able to made amends provided he is given time to get over this.
Note smaller trainers in the lower grade handicap hurdles
MUCH of January’s racing is mundane, not that there is anything wrong with that; the Gold Cup cannot be run every week, and the sport’s USP is the fact it is always there, high quality or low, though I am not sure we quite need more of the latter on Sunday evenings in January.
There is nothing more ordinary or ubiquitous in Irish racing than low-grade handicap hurdles, but they are also some of the most competitive races around and give smaller trainers a chance to win with less chance of running into one trained by Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott.
Looking back at all low-grade Irish handicap hurdles since the 2018/’19 season and taking in races where the top-weight was rated 109 or less for a total of 1,331 races, Mullins had just 38 runners in all with Elliott having 368. The bottom three ratings bands for such races in Ireland are 80-95, 80-102 and 80-109.
No trainer won more of these races than Gavin Cromwell with 58 winners, followed by Phillip Rothwell with 39, and Elliott with 32, while the top five is rounded out by Eric McNamara (28 winners) and Matthew Smith (23 winners.)
Profitable
Both McNamara (+81.08 points) and Smith (+52.25 points) were profitable to level-stakes as were the likes of Declan Queally (17.1% strike-rate, +20.25 level stakes), Jim Dreaper (15.1% strike-rate, +21.83 level stakes) and Robert Tyner (14.1% strike-rate, +21.25 level stakes).
A final name to note is Eoin McCarthy. He has won 22 such races in the period given above, good for joint-seventh overall, the bulk of them coming since the backend of 2020.
He has not had the best of luck in these races of late with one winner and 10 placed horses in them since Rathnaleen Kal won back in early August.
He had a few horses run well in defeat over Christmas at Limerick, but none was more eye-catching than Wholelotofbusiness in a maiden hurdle on St Stephen’s Day, so much so that the stewards inquired into his run, and he will be interesting when sent handicapping.