THERE are times when Willie Mullins has punters in knots with his words, particularly when undecided on a future target, but his post-race interviews – when not asked about where a horse might run next – can be revealing and the one he gave to Kevin O’Ryan on Racing TV after Saturday’s Opera Hat at Naas was a good example.
O’Ryan opened by suggesting that Paul Townend always looked to have matters in hand on Allegorie De Vassy, but Mullins was not so sure, saying that he thought she was in bother over the first five fences and was ‘not jumping at all.’
The trainer went on to say that ‘the front two took each other on and probably set it up for us’, expanding that point on IrishRacing.com by adding ‘it might not have been as flashy as we thought it was.’
On a weekend where some inconsistent horses put their best foot forward, Allegorie De Vassy was clearly on a going day but the way Riviere D’etel and Maskada, her two main market rivals, were ridden looked to play a part.
The decision to go forward on Riviere D’etel made sense as she was coming down in trip, but I am less sure about the tactics on Maskada who looked well suited by taking a lead last season, her wins in the Tim Duggan and Grand Annual coming from off the pace.
Perhaps she is not the same mare this term, but I would like to see her under different tactics before making a final call.
Riviere D’etel was strong in the market through the day, backed from 7/2 into 7/4, and seems on good terms with herself now, though one wonders if the Irish spring festivals might suit her better than going to Cheltenham.
She prefers to go right-handed and there are valuable chases for mares at both Fairyhouse and Punchestown, the Easter meeting’s proximity to Cheltenham another thing that might be given consideration.
Suspect
Allegorie De Vassy will surely go to Cheltenham for a race she finished second in last year, and there will be no Impervious to take on this time, though her backers are asked to take a price that looks suppressed by a recent win that even her trainer considers suspect.
A final interesting comment in the Mullins post-race interview came when O’Ryan asked about his decision to drop the winner down to two miles and the trainer responded that there was no great design about it: “It’s just the race, if you don’t run there, where do you run? If you have a three mile mares or two mile mares, you come here.’
Mullins was offering an insight into the structure of the programme for chasing mares, the idea that there aren’t many options and if trainers want to keep them to their own sex, they can’t be picking and choosing which trip and track they want to run at.
That thinking applies to Dinoblue, currently a short-priced for the Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase, who is unproven over two and a half miles and has looked particularly effective over shorter the last two seasons.
She will be running in the Cheltenham race because it is confined to mares, rather than because the distance suits her, and though official ratings have her clear of the rest, she could be vulnerable to a stronger stayer.
GORDON Elliott played a disappointingly small part at the Dublin Racing Festival, winning just a handicap hurdle and having only a few horses run well in defeat, with only Found A Fifty really getting involved in the Grade 1 races, but he was back among the Graded winners at his beloved Navan on Sunday.
A starting price of 1/3 suggested that Brighterdaysahead had little to beat in the Apple’s Jade Mares Novice Hurdle, other than some blacktype hunters, but there were plenty of positives to take from the performance.
Her overall time was nearly 12 seconds faster than that of Hiddenvalley Lake in the Boyne Hurdle while she was also giving 7lb to all her rivals, coming off a break having missed some time, so there could be improvement to come.
The most impressive thing was her improved hurdling, however.
Having made significant errors on her previous start at Down Royal, she was much more fluent here and there should be no need to ride her as wide as she has been ridden the last twice in the future.
That could be important in the Dawn Run which typically attracts a maximum field of 22 novice mares, and the market response to her win here was surprisingly muted, cut only a tick or two for that Cheltenham race.The stiff extended two miles there will suit, and she does travel well, though I wonder if connections will give any thought to swerving the race entirely and heading for Fairyhouse instead.
Winning at Easter
Three of the last four winners of that race – Ashroe Diamond, Brandy Love and Honeysuckle – avoided Cheltenham before winning at Easter and there are other reasons why it might be a more suitable race.
It is a Grade 1, unlike Cheltenham, while the prize money is broadly similar, and Brighterdaysahead would not have to carry a penalty as she would in the Dawn Run.
It is closer to home and over a trip that may suit her better, with a smaller field likely too, and there is a fair chance that many of the Cheltenham runners won’t turn up given it is only 17 days later.
Enigmatic American Mike benefits from red hot Ten Up pace at Navan
They got to the third last 24.1 seconds quicker than the runners in the handicap chase over the same trip that was the next race on the card, and understandably neither of the front runners had anything left, and set it up for those ridden off the pace.
One of those was the winner American Mike, an enigmatic sort who Gordon Elliott said afterwards leaves him scratching his head more than any other, going on to add that he had even considered running him over two miles before coming here!
He looked well-suited by this stiff test of stamina, however, and the Irish Grand National was suggested as his next possible start. That is a race novices do well in though his jumping would be a concern.
The runner-up Nick Rockett was a little disappointing given he raced in the right position in rear and looked to be coming with a winning challenge as American Mike either wavered or idled between the final two fences, but Nick Rockett’s jumping had not always been fluent during the race.
Strike rate
One side point to the two Willie Mullins runners getting beaten here is that Navan is one of the champion trainer’s worst tracks in terms of win strike rate.
Since 2015, and considering National Hunt races only, his bottom five win strike rate tracks are Down Royal (19.4%), Leopardstown (21%), Galway (21.9%), Navan (22.2%) and Bellewstown (22.2%).
Those sorts of figures are the envy of every other yard but his top win strike rates per track are in the mid 30%, low 40% in some cases with the best five being Tramore (42.3%), Clonmel (41.2%), Sligo (41.2%), Tipperary (37.6%) and Thurles (35.7%).