THE Lawlor’s of Naas Novice Hurdle has been a largely predictable race, even before it was elevated to Grade 1 status; since 2000, and prior to last Friday, there have been 10 winning favourites and only one winner sent off bigger than 7/1.

That shock winner was McKinley at 33/1 in 2015, and he had some similarities with Readin Tommy Wrong as he beat a much better-fancied stablemate, his price influenced by his being pulled up on his last start little more than a week beforehand.

Neither McKinley, nor the beaten favourite that day, Tell Us More, achieved much afterwards, McKinley winning just two of his remaining 13 starts, a beginners’ chase later that year and a Sandown handicap hurdle the following April when Willie Mullins was chasing a British trainers’ championship.

There is a temptation to file this year’s result in a similar bin and put Readin Tommy Wrong down as a fluke winner but that might be a mistake.

Willie Mullins opined after the race that the winner benefitted from a good ride – ‘he got a very cute ride and let the main protagonists fight it out before taking it off them in the end’ – and the race hardly unfolded as the Closutton team planned.

Chapeau De Soleil, who was proven at the trip, went to the lead but he planted at the early hurdles and soon found himself in rear, while Ile Atlantique, stepping up in distance, had to make his own running.

That was not ideal for him, nor did he hurdle well, and a forcing ride down in trip might see him to better effect but the pace was even rather than frantic, and he won just two of his six starts, with his defeats for Mullins coming at prices of 2/5, 2/1 and 6/4.

Readin Tommy Wrong, on the other hand, is unbeaten in four starts for this yard and had broken his maiden over hurdles in November at a time when Mullins was relatively quiet, that form proving strong since.

Nor did he have things go his way here. It is difficult to come from off the pace on the round track at Naas, yet he did so here despite hurdling awkwardly at times, but every time Daryl Jacob gave him a squeeze in the second half of the race, he quickly came back on the bridle in the manner of one with more to give.

Perhaps his running during last summer when he won two bumpers in 16 days was held against him, but Patrick Mullins remarked after the second of those that he was ‘a winter horse but we couldn’t get him out’ and this form looks quite solid with the consistent Lecky Watson seven and three-quarter lengths behind in third.

He was not unfancied here, backed from 33/1 into 16/1, and in a confusing novice hurdle picture he might be underrated. It is unclear what Cheltenham race he might go for given his relative low profile; he seems unlikely to shorten so there is no need to do anything with him just yet.

The disappointment of the race was Firefox, and it was hard to see any in-race excuses for him; he jumped and travelled well but made little impression from two out having moved to challenge after the turn in.

He seems to have gotten sharper since making his debut over two and a half miles so perhaps stamina was the issue, but his pedigree (half-brother to The Bosses Oscar) would not support that.

Maybe his stable is just not going as well as they were before the New Year and Gordon Elliott did comment on the poor performance of some his horses last Saturday at Fairyhouse, with one of his fancied runners (Magic Dawn) pulled up and found to be coughing post-race.

THURSDAY’S Goffs Thyestes Chase is the race that stops a county, and no trainer has done better in the valuable contest than the local Willie Mullins, who has won six times since 2012.

Smaller yards had a good record in the race before that period and perhaps another local trainer, Pat Fahy in Leighlinbridge, can strike a blow back against the overlords.

Fahy has had just one winner recently, Champagne Admiral at Leopardstown over Christmas, but that does not tell the full story about his current form; since the start of December he has had eight placed horses at prices of 25/1, 125/1, 12/1, 22/1, 10/1, 11/2, 5/1 and 22/1.

One of those was Stormy Judge who looked a handicap chaser on the up a few years back, winning the valuable race for novices at Navan in March 2021 and placing in the Leinster National the following year, before being pulled up when sent off favourite for the Scottish Grand National on ground quicker than ideal.

After 588 days off, he returned in November and has had three runs over hurdles at trips short of his best, but has improved with each run, finishing fifth in a competitive handicap at Leopardstown on December 28th, looking as if a stiffer test was needed.

He will face a different test here jumping fences, but his chase mark has dropped 7lb since that Ayr run and he could be well-treated.

THE search for ‘the’ Willie Mullins Arkle horse has been like the hunt for Red October of late, and the entries for the race, released earlier this week, provide only a degree of clarity, the trainer with seven of the 24 engaged.

Facile Vega looked the standout going into Christmas but disappointed at Leopardstown, the ground a possible excuse, and it feels like we have been scrambling round for a replacement since.

It will not be Mister Policeman judged on his slow jumping Naas run last week, and his sole Cheltenham entry at the moment is the Turners, his trainer mentioning applying blinkers since is another negative.

Blood Destiny may not be it either, based on his Punchestown effort, though there is a possibility that his fast jumping will be more use to him at two miles than over further.

Hunters Yarn has possibilities if overcoming a tendency to clout one, though he did have a ceiling over hurdles while Il Etait Temps did run with credit at Limerick over Christmas on ground that would have been much softer than ideal.

Uncle Phil is another worth mentioning after his impressive Dan Moore win, in a time 7.4 seconds quicker than Hunters Yarn on the same card, while his jumping on Saturday was excellent, albeit slightly to the right which is not ideal for Cheltenham.

All this confusion seems to add up to Mullins having a lot of runners in the Arkle in the hope, rather than the expectation, of beating Marine Nationale, who was superior to a number of those mentioned above over hurdles.

Mullins has had 19 of the 124 total runners in the Arkle since 2010, with Henry de Bromhead and Nicky Henderson the others to break double figures, but prior to 2022 he never had more than a single runner.

In the last two runnings, he has run three and four horses however, and something like that would seem likely again come March, though one wonders if perhaps his ideal type – Impaire Et Passe – is still over hurdles.