THE Dublin Racing Festival provided the all-conquering Willie Mullins with the chance not only to win some top-class races but also to learn more about some of his horses as regards the Cheltenham Festival.
In winning all eight Grade 1s he must now have a clearer picture of how his Cheltenham challenge is looking. The data from these races at times merely affirmed that the best horse in the race prevailed and did so in a straightforward manner.
That was not the case with every race and I will be putting four of those Grade 1s under the sectional and Race IQ microscope.
Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup (Grade 1)
Galopin Des Champs got the job done in the Irish Gold Cup. Workmanlike at best would be my visual impression as he outstayed Fastorslow after the last fence to win by four and a half lengths. The race was run at a steady gallop in the early stages allowing for a strong finish.
The first mile saw Conflated take the field along through tepid fractions of 17.32s 17.09s 16.99s and 17.45s, this allowed for energy conservation and a fast final four furlongs from Galopin Des Champs where he recorded a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 114.38%.
This means he completed the final four furlongs 14.38% quicker than he ran the rest of the race. Fastorslow also came home strongly, his FSP being 113.36%. Where the analytics becomes more revealing is when we look at the Race IQ jumping data.
Galopin Des Champs did not jump well and it is to his credit that he was able to win given that he only gained ground on his rivals at five of the 17 fences. At all the others, he was consistently outjumped by Fastorslow.
His cumulative ground loss over the fences was 3.14 lengths compared to Fastorslow who gained 8.19 lengths. The discrepancy of 11.33 lengths is stark and is an indication that if Galopin Des Champs had just jumped better, he would have won easily and by further.
To put this round of jumping in context, a comparison with his win in the Savills Chase is useful. In that contest, he beat Gerri Colombe by 23 lengths and his jumping was miles better than it was in the Irish Gold Cup. He gained ground at 14 of the 17 fences that day and his cumulative lengths gained through the race was 9.86 lengths.
The comparison of the two races in terms of jumping is revealing and is displayed below.
In both races his best jump came at the final fence which is a point of interest rather than indicative of a trend, but there is an argument that he jumps better when his jockey is proactive at the fences. What is for sure is that if he can win as he did at the weekend jumping poorly, then his Cheltenham rivals will be in big trouble if he gets his jumping act together.
Ladbrokes Novice Chase
(Grade 1)
This was reduced to a two-runner affair with Grangeclare West not able to take part, having been cast in his box overnight. Nonetheless, Fact To File and Gaelic Warrior are two very useful novices. This race is worthy of analysis in terms of what happened to Gaelic Warrior who unseated Paul Townend at the last when already well beaten.
I think the race revolves around the fourth last fence where Gaelic Warrior made a mistake and slipped slightly on landing, thereafter he seemed to lose all fluency.
The Race IQ jumping data tells us that Gaelic Warrior jumped marginally better than Fact To File until that fourth last. Up until that point, he had gained ground on his only rival at six of the eight jumps. After that mistake he lost ground at every single jump until he unseated at the last.
Up until the eighth fence Gaelic Warrior gained 1.14 lengths jumping over his rival, after that fence he lost 3.4 lengths. Clearly that mistake had a huge bearing on the outcome.
We should therefore be cautious to write Gaelic Warrior off while acknowledging that Fact To File is a tremendous prospect.
Tattersalls Ireland 50th Derby Sale Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
Ballyburn is favourite for the Sky Bet Supreme Hurdle at Cheltenham after winning at Leopardstown on Sunday in the Grade 1 novice. In a race that was strongly run, he was always prominent taking up the running after a mile and surging to an impressive seven-length success.
He is a relentless galloper and will stay further than two miles. Rather than quicken, he maintained an even gallop recording an FSP of 100.82%, the sectionals he posted were relentless.
A final four furlongs of 60.36s was 1.25s quicker than the runner-up Slade Steel, that discrepancy achieved largely with a strong final furlong where Ballyburn was the only horse in the race to dip under 16.00s.
A look at his sectionals for the final mile shows no noticeable change of gear but he can maintain a strong gallop which saps his rivals of a finishing kick. As he finished his race off evenly, his nearest pursuers were tiring as evidenced by their Finishing Speed Percentages. The FSP’s for the first five home are below.
Irish Champion Hurdle and Dublin Chase (Grade 1)
The data as regards the wins of State Man and El Fabiolo in the Irish Champion Hurdle and the Dublin Chase respectively suggests that both simply got the job done in an efficient manner.
If you wanted to be ultra critical, State Man could have jumped a bit better than he did. He lost 1.01 lengths through the race at his hurdles whereas in the Grade 1 Matheson on his previous start he gained 0.01 lengths on his rivals.
El Fabiolo cannot be criticised. He gained 3.82 lengths on the field jumping and finished his race very strongly. His final four furlongs being 6.33% quicker than the previous 12. He was 1.87s quicker than Dinoblue in the final furlongs recording an easy success. He will be very hard to beat in the Champion Chase.
4. Stick with Facile?
Goffs Irish Arkle (Grade 1)
A very steadily run race that turned into a sprint. The steady gallop allowed all horses to finish the race relatively strongly. Il Etait Temps was strongest recording an FSP of 111.38% getting ahead of Found A Fifty only inside the final furlong. The winner recorded a quick final furlong of 14.44s compared to the runner-up who finished the race in 14.94s.
Don’t give up on Facile Vega. If he had jumped better, he may well have won. He finished third, beaten three and a quarter-lengths, yet according to the Race IQ data, Il Etait Temps gained 3.99 lengths on him over the fences. A stronger gallop and a better round of jumping would make him a player for the Arkle in March.