ON Saturday at Newbury Nicky Henderson would have been a delighted and relieved man in equal measure. Iberico Lord under a patient ride from Nico de Boinville landed the Betfair Hurdle and Shishkin was on his best behaviour in winning the Grade 2 Betfair Denman Chase.

Both races make for interesting data analysis as does the Betfair Game Spirit Chase where under a change of tactics Edwardstone was a revelation. I will also be putting Brighterdaysahead in the Apple’s Jade at Navan on Sunday under the sectional microscope.

Shishkin: Betfair Denman Chase

The gallop set by Protektorat was a strong one given the heavy conditions. The even gallop is evidenced by his early sectionals. There is no hint that this was a stop-start gallop or a dawdle. Ignoring the first furlong which is slow courtesy of a standing start, he then took the field through the following fractions.

Furlong 2: 15.82secs

Furlong 3: 15.91secs

Furlong 4: 15.23secs

Furlong 5: 15.90secs

Furlong 6: 15.28secs

Furlong 7: 15.93secs

Furlong 8: 15.35secs

Off this even gallop Shishkin took over with half a mile to run and increased the pace recording three sub-15s furlongs. This increase in pace saw him record a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 103.01% meaning that he ran the last four furlongs 3.01% quicker than he ran the previous two and a half miles.

This is further evidence of a good even gallop. Hitman second, Protektorat third and Sam Brown fourth all recorded an FSP over 100% suggesting that they all finished the race well and presumably all gave their running. Off a decent gallop, if any of them had been below their best it is unlikely that they would have finished the race as well as they did.

In terms of jumping, Shishkin gained 9.24 lengths over the 18 fences. A solid round of jumping bar the third fence where he made an error losing 0.45 lengths on the field. Through the Race IQ jumping envelope which is set at being 30 metres before a fence and 30 metres after a fence, he slowed down by 4.58 mph courtesy of that mistake. He was much quicker through the envelope at all the other fences.

Protektorat put in a moderate round of jumping according to the data, losing 2.97 lengths through the race and over the last four fences he lost a lot of speed. A deceleration of 5.48mph at the second last is notable.

Iberico Lord: Betfair Hurdle

A contested early pace led to this competitive handicap being very strongly run. The first four were sensibly ridden well off the pace. After the first three furlongs the winner Iberico Lord raced in 13th, the second L’Eau Du Sud was 11th, the third Go Dante was 10th, and the fourth Doddiethegreat was 19th.

The winner, the second and the fourth were able to finish the race relatively strongly courtesy of saving energy early in the contest. They recorded FSP’s of 103.55% 101.37% and 100.86% respectively. The other 16 finishers all finished weakly recording FSP’s under 100% suggesting that a searching gallop in testing conditions was too much for them.

Iberico Lord finished the race well, recording 55.65secs for the final four furlongs compared to the runner-up who finished in 56.87secs.

In chalking up that number, Iberico Lord was the only horse to dip under 14secs for the penultimate furlong. He was clearly well suited to a hold-up ride in a strongly run race.

Race IQ jumping data shows that Iberico Lord jumped well gaining 7.83 lengths.

The interesting one is Faivoir in fifth who jumped best in the race gaining 7.98 lengths and raced closer to the pace than the principals under an inexperienced amateur. The County Hurdle at Cheltenham would be an interesting target.

Edwardstone:

Betfair Game Spirit

Back to his favoured trip of two miles and under a change of tactics, Edwardstone routed his rivals making all the running and jumping superbly. The Race IQ data tells us he gained 15.41 lengths through the race, his best jump at the second last where he gained 3.52 lengths.

He put his rivals to the sword, all whose jumping fell apart. The only other finisher Funambule Sivola lost 5.44 lengths through the race.

In his last two races over two miles where he was held up, his Race IQ jumping data is remarkably different. As shown below.

Tingle Creek: +2.46 lengths

Shloer Chase: +3.5 lengths

Game Spirit: +15.41 lengths

Letting him bowl along in front seems to have had a positive impact on his jumping.

In making all and racing quite freely, the gallop was strong with Edwardstone recording an FSP of 101.16%, but it is likely he could have finished the race faster than that if he had been pressed.

He is a fast horse and perhaps using his speed rather than trying to preserve it will serve him well in the Champion Chase.

Apple’s Jade Mares Novices

Hurdle: Brighterdaysahead

Brighterdaysahead is unbeaten in five starts and this was an impressive win. She was totally dominant. She raced close to a moderate gallop, the pace not picking up until the field had completed 12 furlongs.

Thereafter, she was much faster than her rivals. Her final four furlongs were 61.93s which was 2.06secs quicker than Pastorale in second.

This strong finish courtesy of the steady pace allowed her to show her speed over a trip four furlongs further than she has gone before. An FSP for her of 106.88% could have been over 110% if she had been asked for maximum effort.

Brighterdays ahead clearly has plenty of pace and the trip was seemingly no problem for her, nor were the hurdles, as she skipped around gaining 5.08 lengths on the field through the race.

She is a bright prospect whose speed should not be underestimated.