THE domestic action last week was curtailed by the weather. Naas survived the winter blast and provided some impressive performances in the shape of The Yellow Clay, Il Atlantique and Fun Fun Fun. The Yellow Clay was particularly impressive in a strongly run (Winning FSP: 103.78%) Lawlors of Naas Novice Hurdle (Grade1) and is now the 8/1 favourite the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival.
The relatively quiet week gives me an opportunity to take stock in terms of what we have seen so far this season in the context of the Cheltenham Festival which is just 60 days away.
I have identified some horses that we have seen lately who have both positive and negative data profiles with Cheltenham in mind.
Gold Cup
Galopin Des Champs put in the best round of jumping in his career to date when winning the Savills Chase at Leopardstown recording a jump index of 8.0. For context, he only registered a 7.3 when landing the Gold Cup last March.
He stormed clear of Fact To File who jumped better scoring 8.6 and gaining 6.9 lengths on Galopin Des Champs over the fences but Fact To File was still beaten seven and a half lengths. Just imagine what would happen if Gaolpin started to jump even better than he did here.
It was not a case of Fact To File being outstayed; it was a case of Galopin being too fast for his rivals. He recorded a FSP of 110.50% as he surged home, with each of his final two furlongs being faster than Fact To File and in the final furlong, he was the only horse able to record a sub 14secs furlong, more than a second faster than Fact To File.
The data tells us that this was a dominant demolition job by Galopin and even though Fact To File jumped better than him, he lacks the speed and raw ability to turn the form around at Cheltenham.
Banbridge in the picture
Banbridge threw his hat into the Gold Cup ring when winning the King George at Kempton where the step up to three miles on decent ground suited him. He is a fast horse whose final four furlongs at Kempton were 2.26s faster (FSP: 107.44%) than the runner-up Il Est Francais who was not stopping in front (FSP: 103.32%).
He is a fast and efficient jumper as evidenced by his jump index which over fences has never dropped below 8.1.
All this data suggests he will always be at his best when facing a test of speed at up to three miles on decent ground. Surely Aintree rather than the Cheltenham Gold Cup will suit him better.
Monty’s Star is prominent in the Gold Cup market after his return to action at Tramore behind Embassy Gardens. He had twice been beaten by Fact To File last season and he may have needed this return to action, but he was getting 6lb from the impressive winner Embassy Gardens who may be the better each-way prospect for the Gold Cup.
He has always been a good jumper and here he gained 5.19 lengths on Monty’s Star with his jumping. More impressive was the speed that he showed, suggesting he is more than a one-paced stayer.
He recorded an FSP of 112.87% in finishing the race quicker than Monty’s Star who was 0.90s slower than the winner in the final furlong.
Embassy Gardens makes some each-way Gold Cup appeal at 33/1.
VALUE may be found in the Mares’ Chase in the shape of Allegorie De Vassy. The exciting mare put her ring rusty seasonal reappearance behind her with a 25-length success in the Grade 3 mares’ chase at Fairyhouse on New Year’s Day.
She was allowed to bowl along in front and set a searching gallop meaning that she got tired in the closing stages recording an FSP of 95.55%, but it was too much for her toiling rivals who may have underperformed, but there is no doubt this was Allegorie De Vassy at her best.
She put up the best jumping performance of her career recording a jump index of 8.4 and gaining 12.63 lengths on the field with her jumping.
She disappointed in the Mares’ Chase last year and has been inconsistent in the past, but we know she can jump round Cheltenham as she recorded a jump index of 8.4 when second in the Mares’ Chase at Cheltenham in 2023. A price of 8/1 looks to be too big for her third tilt at the Mares’ Chase in March.
Ballyburn questions
The Brown Advisory Novices looks to be the target of Ballyburn now. The step up in trip from two miles likely to suit, but surely he is the wrong favourite at this stage because he seems to be far from a natural over fences and if you can’t jump it doesn’t matter what trip you run over.
Surely The Jukebox Man should be favourite based on their jumping data so far.
Both have run twice over fences and their jump index makes for an interesting contrast.
Ballyburn:
Punchestown 1st: Jump Index: 6.7, Lengths Gained Jumping: 3.39 Lengths
Kempton 2nd: Jump Index: 6.1, Lengths gained Jumping: -4.45 Lengths
The Jukebox Man:
Newbury 1st: Jump Index: 7.8, Lengths Gained Jumping: 4.48 Lengths
Kempton 1st: Jump Index: 8.3, Lengths Gained Jumping: 4.51 Lengths
At this stage, 4/1 Ballyburn, 6/1 The Jukebox Man would seem to be the wrong way round.
Champion Chase
The Queen Mother Champion Chase looks to be an intriguing contest at this stage with Jonbon heading the market at 9/4 after landing the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham and the Tingle Creek at Sandown.
The data is positive about the Tingle Creek particularly in terms of his jumping. He scored well on the Race IQ Jump Index which measures how efficient a horse is over his fences on a scale of 0-10 with a score of 7 representing an average jumping display. His score that day was 8.6 as he secured a comfortable success. He was not so good in the Shloer Chase where he scored 7.9 and therein lies the problem for Jonbon supporters. He simply doesn’t jump as well at Cheltenham as he does elsewhere.
The bare facts are that he has a record of one win from four starts at the track and his average Cheltenham score over fences is 7.15 compared to an average of 8.28 when racing elsewhere.
More is needed
His worst career jumping effort came at Cheltenham when recording a jump index of 5.7 in the Clarence House Chase last January where his jumping fell apart, losing 6.61 lengths on his rivals and a bad mistake at the 11th fence saw him lose a staggering 11.34mph and that one error seemed to drain his confidence as he lost a significant amount of speed over the subsequent four fences.
Jonbon will need to find a career best round of jumping at this track to win and 9/4 about him doing so is far from appealing.
On balance, I would rather take 11/10 about Galopin Des Champs in the Cheltenham Gold Cup than that 9/4 about Jonbon because the data suggests he is getting better which is ominous for his rivals.