THE Cheltenham Festival rarely fails to deliver and did so in some style 12 months ago, with the opening day producing top-notch winners of in the Grade 1 races in the shape of Marine Nationale in the Supreme, El Fabiolo in the Arkle, Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle and Honeysuckle in the Mares’ Hurdle.
The problem the upcoming Festival must overcome is the absence of three of those superstars.
Honeysuckle got the farewell send-off she deserved as she trotted off into retirement, but the loss of both Constitution Hill and Marine National as poster-boys for the latest Cheltenham spectacular is a big blow, particularly coming within a week or so of the big event.
Will the meeting – for once – fall flat, or can we expect spectacular performances and/or thrilling finishes to save it from ignominy. Who will light up Prestbury Park on those four days of pilgrimage?
The shock defection of an under-the-weather Constitution Hill doesn’t exactly open the Champion Hurdle up, but it does guarantee a bigger field than would have been the case, and that increases the chances of a bit of intrigue.
STATE MAN is almost as warm a favourite now as Constitution Hill was, having been seen as the champion’s only danger on form. He’s won back-to-back Irish Champion Hurdles and his only defeat in nine outings in Grade 1 company since landing the County Hurdle in 2022 came when beaten into second in this race last year.
He’s followed an identical path so far this season, again winning the Morgiana, Matheson and Irish Champion Hurdles with comfort, and looked at least as good as ever when slamming Bob Olinger at Leopardstown last month.
He may be a little better than he was last year, but he merely needs to repeat the level of form he’s been showing for the past two seasons to be the probable winner of this race, with none of his rivals getting within 10lb of him on official figures.
Irish Point has been earmarked for the Stayers’ since winning the Christmas Hurdle over three miles at Leopardstown at Christmas, but with connections also represented by Teahupoo in that race, and the door now ajar here, he looks set to cut back in trip.
The negative is that he looked short of the best as a novice over this trip last term, with his best effort by some way coming when landing the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle over two and a half miles at Aintree.
It can be argued that a defeat of the likeable Magical Zoe at Down Royal in November when conceding that mare 13lb is as good as anything he’s ever achieved, however, and plenty of Champion Hurdler winners have dropped down in trip to win, notably Istabraq, Faugheen and Annie Power.
Not So Sleepy belied his age to win the Fighting Fifth at Sandown, but Hughie Morrison’s veteran has had his chances in this race and it’s hard to believe he could eclipse the feat of those legends Hatton’s Grace and Sea Pigeon by winning the race at the age of 12.
Iberico Lord has been supplemented after wins in the Greatwood and Betfair Hurdles this season, and has attracted support, but my each-way money is already down on outsider Colonel Mustard.
The Colonel has been placed behind State Man in both the County Hurdle and the Paddy Power Champion Hurdle at Punchestown, and while beaten by Nemean Lion in the Kingwell at Wincanton, is just the sort to run above himself back in Grade 1 company.
Predictions
1. STATE MAN
2. Irish Point
3. Colonel Mustard
Champion Chase
Energumene is another champion missing from this year’s Festival, and that leaves the Champion Chase looking somewhat at the mercy of the pair who dominated the Arkle 12 months ago.
On that occasion, EL FABIOLO beat Jonbon by five and a half lengths, and the pair have since gained five wins between them in Grade 1 company. El Fabiolo has been unbeaten in three subsequent runs, including when thumping Dinoblue by eight and a half lengths in the Dublin Chase.
Jonbon has been busier, winning at Aintree and Sandown last spring, and adding the Shloer Chase and Tingle Creek before Christmas. He was let down by his jumping when only second in the Clarence House Chase (rerouted to Cheltenham and missing El Fabiolo as a result) last time, and while both horses can make mistakes, Jonbon’s have proven costly, whereas El Fabiolo has so far shrugged them off in an unblemished chase career. 
I’d actually rate Edwardstone a bigger threat than Jonbon, despite finishing behind that rival in the Shloer and the Tingle Creek.
Alan King has been too negative in his tactics with the 2022 Arkle hero but got it right when the 10-year-old made all to destroy his rivals in the Game Spirit. That approach improved his jumping and he could put either or both of the market leaders on the back foot if repeating that front-running effort.
The worry is that King may revert to a more patient approach, and Edwardstone ran a moody race when held up last year.
Runner-up last year, Captain Guinness had a heart issue when flopping behind Dinoblue at Christmas but looked back on song when a tenderly handled third to El Fab at the DRF and is fancied to grab a place once more at a track that suits.
Predictions
1. EL FABIOLO
2. Edwardstone
3. Captain Guinness
Ryanair Chase
The Ryanair saw a fine finish last year when former Festival heart-throbs Envoi Allen and Shishkin fought out the finish and the former is back to defend his crown. He has every chance on the pick of his form, and ran a cracker when beaten a neck by Gerri Colombe in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal in November, in which Conflated finished a close third after leading most of the way.
That was a stirring contest, and it may be not a popular view, but I don’t think the form is very strong with Gerri Colombe put very much in his place by Galopin Des Champs in the Savills Chase at Christmas. Conflated unseated at the last in that race and did the same in the Irish Gold Cup, while he fell two out in this race two years ago.
Envoi Allen is also inclined to throw in a couple of low jumps every round and his jumping was imperfect even in winning last year, so he has a bit to prove having been rested for four months coming into this race.
On good ground BANBRIDGE will take the beating here having beaten the ultra-consistent Pic d’Orhy at Kempton in January on his first start since landing a Grade 1 novice at Aintree in April.
He had Stage Star well behind him in the Manifesto and that rival has since won the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November. Pulled up in the mud here in January, Stage Star could bounce back, but does need to.
He won the Turners here a year ago under a superb Harry Cobden ride, but that race was missing Banbridge, withdrawn at the 11th hour due to soft ground. Punters backing him will be painfully aware that he won’t be risked in similar circumstances.
Protektorat hasn’t really stayed the three and a quarter miles of the Gold Cup for the last two years and while he is vulnerable at the top level over three miles these days, he has place claims back in trip with his aggressive style better suited to this two miles and five furlongs trip.
Another dropping back in trip is Ahoy Senor, and although called a few names of late, has hinted that he’s as good as ever of late, and was still bowling along in front when falling at the sixth last in Galopin Des Champs’ Gold Cup. He only seems to find his form in the spring, and having jumped better the last twice, could spring a shock.
Predictions
1. BANBRIDGE
2. Ahoy Senor
3. Protektorat
Stayers’ Hurdle
The Stayers’ is once again the most open-looking of all the championship races at this year’s Festival, and like last year, Teahupoo is the market leader, and a little stronger in that position with news that stablemate Irish Point will likely revert to two miles for the Champion Hurdle. 
He’s a horse who looks at his best when the mud is flying, and if the going is quick enough for Banbridge in the Ryanair, it could be too lively for Gordon Elliott’s six-year-old, who was a creditable third last year.
FLOORING PORTER was only fourth a year ago having had a serious training setback at the turn of the year, and he’s been chasing this season with the National Hunt Chase as his aim. Connections have decided to have another go at the Stayers’, however, and I believe they’ve made the right choice, with this race no deeper than it was a year ago, and Flooring Porter a dual winner, but still younger than the defending champion, Sire Du Berlais.
He is a better hurdler than a chaser and looks to have lost little of his old spark, so is taken to regain his crown.
Sire Du Berlais tends to be slow to come to hand, and he only made his return in the Boyne Hurdle at Navan, suggesting the 12-year-old will still be short of fitness as he runs over hurdles at the Festival for a remarkable seventh time.
Crambo is the best of the locals according to the betting having stepped up to Grade 1 company with a narrow win over Paisley Park in the Long Walk at Ascot.
Noble Yeats also beat Paisley Park in the Cleeve Hurdle, but in receipt of weight and while both need to improve again, Crambo has the more progressive profile, and could provide Fergal O’Brien with a first Festival win after plenty of near misses.
Predictions
1. FLOORING PORTER
2. Teahupoo
3. Crambo
Galopin rules supreme but Corach rambler is the each-way value
Gold Cup
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS came of age in this contest last year, staying on strongly to beat Bravemansgame convincingly, and although beaten twice at Punchestown either side of his summer holidays by Fastorslow, he gained his revenge on that rival in the Irish Gold Cup last time, although his most impressive effort came when beating Gerri Colombe and Capodanno by 23 lengths and a head in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.
A deserving favourite, Galopin Des Champs has shown that he handles Cheltenham on several occasions, being a most unlucky loser of the Turners as a novice before his Gold Cup win, and he also took the Martin Pipe as a novice hurdler.
He wasn’t foot-perfect at Leopardstown, however, and took time to warm up in this race 12 months ago, so there is a minor concern about backing him at cramped odds, and his Punchestown defeats do show that he’s beatable when not 100%.
Fastorslow travelled as well as Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup but was outstayed from the last and his Achilles heel is probably his stamina for the longer trip if the ground was soft.
He was a non-runner due to the ground in the Savills Chase, after all, and doesn’t want a bog, so while he is clearly one to consider, a bigger danger may come from Corach Rambler, who beat Fastorslow when winning his second Ultima last season and promises to be better suited to the demands of the New Course, given his undeniable stamina.
It’s unusual for a Grand National winner to develop subsequently into a Gold Cup horse, but we’re living in strange times and Lucinda Russell has managed to guide Corach Rambler to the top without damaging his engine, and he was far from knocked about when a creditable third to Royale Pagaille in the Betfair Chase when last seen.
His trainer quickly decided to put him away for a Gold Cup challenge after that race, and she rested him in similar fashion before his Ultima wins in 2022 and 2023.
Predictions
1. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS
2. Corach Rambler
3. Fastorslow