Friday, 1.30pm

JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 1f

Before the introduction of the Fred Winter in 2005, this attracted a big field. The average field size in the preceding decade was 26, which has halved to 13 in the last decade. The ‘old’ Triumph involved plenty of luck in running and there were lots of upsets – six of the last 10 winners before the Fred Winter was introduced went off double figure prices. Since the Fred Winter only four of the 19 winners had a double digit SP.

The Triumph has gone from a lottery to a predictable race and some key trends flow from that. Graded form is key, only one of the last 14 winners not having contested a graded hurdle. Most of the Grade 2 juvenile hurdles are shallow races and if you get beaten in them you’re unlikely to be winning a Triumph. It pays to concentrate on the winners of those Grade 2s.

Given their age, its unsurprising juveniles typically develop more during the season than older horses and so the graded races after the turn of the year tend to be the best guides. Horses that were unbeaten over hurdles and had won a graded hurdle since the turn of the year are 8/24 since 2005 - 28pt (117%) profit a positive for ante-post favourite Sir Gino.

Friday, 2,10pm

County Hurdle (Premier Handicap) 2m 1f

Dan Skelton is a fine example of a niche trainer. He’s 6/115 at the Festival overall but his niche is handicap hurdles, where he’s 5/45 – 55pt (122%) profit, (by contrast he’s 0/30 in handicap chases). Generally at the Festival, Dan’s been more of a trainer of two-milers than stayers in the handicaps and four of those wins have come in the County. It’s worth noting that two went off 33/1, when Dan had a much more fancied runner.

The other key trainer here is Willie Mullins. Six of Willie’s 11 handicap wins have come in the County, three of which weren’t his first string. The rule meaning novices need to have run in four hurdles to qualify is most likely to impact Willie, (his last two winners State Man and Saint Roi would have been ineligible under the new rule). Others are adapting their race planning to get novices qualified but that’s not Willie’s style and so his challenge may not be as strong going forward.

Friday, 2.50pm

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle (Grade 1) 3m

This is by far the most unpredictable of the novice/juvenile Grade 1s. Nine of the last 10 winners have gone off between 11/1 and 50/1 and from outside the front five in the market. In those 10 renewals 17 horses have gone off shorter than 5/1 and all 17 have been beaten. You need an incredibly strong rationale to be backing a horse at a short price in this. The long shots tend to be defensively priced ante-post so it’s a race to be betting on during Festival week as the winners tend to be bigger prices then.

Despite its unpredictability, there are strong trends, notably that hurdles form at three miles or over gets under-bet. Punters tend to think winners of such races are slow old boats and latch on to horses with sexy profiles over shorter. This is a tough race and stamina is at a premium – winners of a graded hurdle over three miles plus are 6/47 – 43pt (91%) profit.

Qualifiers so far amongst the entries are Shanagh Bob and Search For Glory. As ever, the trend shouldn’t be interpreted literally – the best Irish trial, the Dorans Pride, is now run over two miles and seven furlongs and Loughglynn should be included in that list as his run at the Dublin Racing Festival was too bad to be true.

Friday, 3.30pm

Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) 3m 2f 100y

The Gold Cup is a really tough race. Every year you hear that a horse that ran in it ‘should improve for the experience, especially as they are a year older now.’ I’d argue the opposite – most horses regress for a Gold Cup run and I’m usually looking to back a horse that hasn’t run in the race before, (since 1990, 24 of the 33 Gold Cups have been won by horses having their first run in the race).

As racing’s blue riband where the best horses are primed for the day, it’s not surprising that the Gold Cup is a predictable race. Nineteen of the 23 winners this century have come from the first three in the SP market – 16pt (21%) profit. If you combine those two factors to get the shortest priced horse having their first run in the Gold Cup, qualifiers are 11/26 this century – 29pt (111%) profit. At the time of writing Fastorslow looks the most likely candidate.

The Broadway is the good Gold Cup trial you’d hope it would be. The previous season’s Broadway winners are 4/12 this century – 22pt (179% profit). That’s a positive for The Real Whacker and, on the basis trends shouldn’t be interpreted literally, also Gerri Colombe.

However, that all said, class tells. Where you have a horse that has shown elite form that season, defined here as earning a Racing Post Rating of 180+, they get under-bet despite going off at or near the front of the market. This century such horses are 6/13 – 7pt (54%) profit. Galopin Des Champs repeated his Gold Cup winning form in the Savills Chase earning another RPR of 184.

Friday, 4.10pm

St James Place Open Hunters Chase 3m 2f 110y

There are predictable races and unpredictable races at the Festival. The Hunters Chase is a dichotomy. It’s quite common for there to be a stand out performer in the division. Seven of the 23 favourites this century have won and in the last 30 renewals seven horses have won the race twice.

There doesn’t look to be a stand out this year and so we could be ripe for another upset. Eleven of the 23 winners this century have gone off between 16/1 and 66/1, the two 66/1 winners coming in the last four years.

I think the reason for rank outsiders winning (when there isn’t a stand out performer in the division) is that beyond a few high profile hunters, this isn’t a race that punters give much attention to. The remaining runners are often therefore much less accurately priced than the outsiders in other races.

Friday, 4.50pm

Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase (Grade 2) 2m 4f 110y

After just three renewals it’s too early for trends specifically on this race, but it’s worth looking at the three mares races in total – in the context of Willie Mullins. Willie dominated the early renewals of all three races, winning nine of the first 11 Mares Hurdles, the first five Dawn Runs and the first two Mares Chases.

As those races have bedded down other trainers have started catching up – Willie is 0/17 in the last five Mares Hurdles, 0/12 in the last three Dawn Runs and last year was the first time he didn’t win the Mares Chase.

Of course Willie is still the number one trainer in all three races but he’s the leader now not the dominator and markets tend to be priced up as if that hasn’t changed.

Friday, 5.30pm

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicapt Hurdle 2m 4f 110y

Of the eight all-aged handicaps at the Festival, the Martin Pipe is the one that has been most dominated by inexperienced and progressive hurdlers. Nine of the 15 winners had run in five hurdles or less and seven were novices, (only Killultagh Vic would have been ineligible under the ‘four runs for novices’ rule). This hasn’t been a plot race – last time out winners are 8/92 – 23pt (24%) profit.

For many of the conditionals this is the only ride at the meeting and with the adrenalin flowing they tend to go quickly – stamina is at a premium at the two-and-a-half-mile trip. Don’t discount runners with form over further as being too slow.

Nine of the 15 winners had already run over further over hurdles and looking at horses that had won over the furthest they’d tried over hurdles, (provided it was further than the Martin Pipe trip,) has been a good guide. They are 6/57 – 35pt (61%) profit.