THE search for a cast-iron Derby favourite is a feverish pursuit that goes trial to trial and then, when you find one, there is a tendency to think, ‘Well that’s it then, this is the colt.’
That might have been the case for some with Bolshoi Ballet on Sunday when he bounded six lengths clear in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial which prompted a Derby market revamp.
No bookmaker will offer higher than 15/8 about the Leopardstown winner now and they’re probably right. Bolshoi Ballet is an impressive, trial-winning son of Galileo trained by Aidan O’Brien, and if there is a formula for a Derby horse in the last couple of decades, that’s it.
But there is still one more recognised trial and a top-class Dante Stakes remains a rich source for prospective Epsom glory. Golden Horn (pictured) announced himself in the 2015 Dante, when the search for a Derby favourite was in the last chance saloon, and the horse he beat, Jack Hobbs, chased him home at Epsom before going on to bolt up in the Irish Derby.
Authorized and Motivator were above-average Dante winners who became top-class Derby winners and even horses that don’t impress in winning at York have gone on to acquit themselves well at Epsom, most recently Libertarian (second in the Derby in 2013), Carlton House (third in 2011), Cape Blanco (second in 2010), Tartan Bearer (second in 2008) and North Light (won in 2004).
It’s true that the last decade hasn’t been as strong as the one before, with the Chester trials becoming more fashionable plus a couple of exciting Guineas-to-Derby routes taken, but this week’s Dante looks as strong as it has been in some time, and perhaps as informative as ever.
With 11 runners it’s the largest field since Wings Of Desire came out best in a 12-runner contest in 2016 and, with that, there are several strands of trial form coming together, an advantage the Dante has always had over other trial races because of its later place on the racing calendar.
Trial form represented
Flying Visit was two and a quarter lengths away from Bolshoi Ballet in the Ballysax Stakes and, for all that the O’Brien colt improved significantly from that effort, Jim Bolger’s raider will likely do as well.
Alenquer won the Classic Trial at Sandown, where he held off the late surge of Adayar, who went on to find Third Realm much too strong for him in the Derby Trial at Lingfield on Saturday.
Hurricane Lane beat Maximal on only his second ever start at Newbury last month and that runner-up filled the same position when running well behind El Drama in the Dee Stakes at Chester last week.
And Uncle Bryn finished third to Wirko in the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom last month, with that Godolphin horse going on to disappoint when fourth to Youth Spirit in the Chester Vase.
Of course it’s dangerous to draw solid form lines between races containing lightly-raced colts open to any amount of improvement at this stage of their careers but, one thing is for sure, the grading of all the trial races will be that bit easier when the dust settles this Thursday evening.
And we haven’t even mentioned High Definition. With all of the form mentioned above in mind, if this colt, for so long the elected Ballydoyle Derby horse, can win first time up as a three-year-old, coming off a minor setback as well, surely bookmakers will be scratching heads as to who should lead the Derby market.
Astonishing
What High Definition did in the Beresford Stakes last season, only his second ever start, was astonishing. Words actually can’t do it justice, so I’ve linked a tweet of the Racing TV video of the race video below.
An unbelievable finish to the Group Two Alan Smurfit Memorial Beresford Stakes at @curraghrace sees High Definition fly home with determination for Seamie Heffernan and Aidan O'Brien ???? pic.twitter.com/oidWg37RdX
— Horse Racing Ireland (@HRIRacing) September 26, 2020
Twelfth of 13 runners as late as the three-furlong pole where he traded as high as 99/1, the son of Galileo devoured the Curragh ground to remarkably win cosily. His “big, ranging stride” was all Aidan O’Brien could talk about after the race and you really get an appreciation for what his trainer was referring to when you watch the race back.
This is a big colt who has been given time to develop and he has absolute star potential. It’s very easy to imagine him powering up the Epsom straight but he’s got to prove his well-being and deliver on at least some of that potential on his first start as a three-year-old on Thursday.
Aside from all the trial formlines mentioned above, you also have Group 1 winner Gear Up in the race, plus the promising Royal Champion and Megallan, who represents the Golden Horn team. It could be some race.