I DID not have a good Cheltenham, betting-wise, in 2022.

Bits and pieces went okay but that was all, and my main opinions - like Saint Sam in the Arkle, Dinoblue in the Dawn Run and Pied Piper in the Triumph - were wrong and I was always in a losing battle as a result.

With anything in betting, a sense of perspective is needed. A single Cheltenham Festival with 28 races is a minute sample size and it very possible to do things right and still lose, badly. The problem with last year is that I’m not altogether sure I was doing things right or at very least I missed some things that I shouldn’t have. So, what were those things?

I was too unwilling to play the Willie Mullins ante-post guessing game, perhaps as a result of past scarring, emotional and financial, from late changes in targets. Instead I decided to file a lot of it in the ‘too hard’ drawer as I didn’t want my head wrecked trying to decipher the trainer’s interviews where he extemporised about horses going this way or that. And that is before we even get into takes from assorted assistant trainers, retired jockeys or amateur riders!

The reality is that this guessing might be one of the only shows in the ante-post betting town, however. Mullins has averaged 6.8 winners per Festival in the last five years but he had 10 last year and, despite injuries to some of his key horses, might be stronger than ever this year, or at least the opposition looks thinner.

Trying to figure out where his novices might run is the main angle and, looking back, there were some good edges to be had last year. Sir Gerhard was 4/1 for the Ballymore after the Dublin Racing Festival where he left the impression he was a staying type and, after a few Supreme murmurings, he finished up in the longer race at a SP of 8/11 and the result was never in doubt.

Punters could also have taken the view after the DRF that Galopin Des Champs – who was only marginally slower than Chacun Pour Soi over the same part of the track on that card despite racing over half a mile further – was a fast horse and the Turners had to be his Cheltenham race. He didn’t win that race but his early backers suffered an all-time bad beat.

In 2023, the novice hurdles seem a little easier to sort with Facile Vega marked down for the Supreme from a long way out and others being worked around him. The novice chasers are a much more complex puzzle with many movable pieces such as Appreciate It, James Du Berlais and Gaillard Du Mesnil. Guessing which goes where can be a frustrating game but it has its rewards if punters can take the mental torture.

February might be the shortest month but, for punters leading into Cheltenham, it can feel as if time is passing at glacial pace. Most of the horses that are headed for the Festival have had their final run already and there can be tendency to overrate what is happening at the moment. This is a trap I feel into last year with the likes of Teahupoo for the Champion Hurdle and Beacon Edge for the Brown Advisory.

Both of those horses ran very well on their pre-Cheltenham outings at Gowran and Navan respectively but were not mapped in March. A good run in February can actually be a detriment to chances at the Festival. Not only have such horses likely had a hard race on ground that has been softened all winter but the market reaction also brings in recency bias as others are on the sidelines.

All horses are individuals, of course, and some prefer a recent prep run but there is a sweet spot in terms of preparation for Cheltenham and a February run probably isn’t it, as the table below shows. In this study, I looked at all the Festival winners from the last five years and it is clear that a reasonable break is the best prep.

This is not to say that all horses who run in February should be discounted. There is one meeting that stands out as a glaring exception, the Dublin Racing Festival. DRF, however, is early in the month and is run at a track that typically produces better ground that is the norm for that time of the year.

Say what you want about the depth of the graded races at the meeting, but it still a rare occurrence that the handicaps don’t draw full fields and they are competitive to say the least. One good judge I know says that you are best taking a five or 10-year view with how you are doing on these races rather than looking a single year’s results, which was reassuring to me after last year when I had some frustration via the likes of HMS Seahorse, Ashdale Bob and Colonel Mustard.

Irish-trained horses remained dominant in the handicap hurdles last year via Brazil, Commander Of Fleet, State Man and Banbridge, but one factor I did not take enough account of was the British handicapper dropping their older horses more rapidly in the weights after defeats.

This directive was announced in September 2021 as a means of rebalancing the ratings between Ireland and Britain. Coole Cody and Third Wind were the main beneficiaries of this leniency as they won the Plate and Pertemps Final.

Coole Cody, at 11, became the oldest winner of that race since 2008 and was competing off a mark only 2lb higher than he won off at the December meeting, while Third Wind was 5lb below the rating he raced off when a decent third in a Warwick qualifier in January.

That facet of handicapping will still be in play in 2023 but there are also other wrinkles to consider for the handicaps. Only the top four finishers in Pertemps qualifiers will now make the final, which could work against the Irish horses; there are only two qualifiers run in Ireland, both before the new year, and possible runners in the race might need to travel to England to qualify.

Perhaps more impactful will be the new ‘State Man’ rule. State Man won the County Hurdle after three hurdle runs, subsequent events showing that he was at least 25lb well-in, but this year novices running in Class 1 handicaps in Britain need to have had four hurdles runs.

That placed a time pressure on Irish trainers looking to get their novice hurdlers qualified for handicaps at the meeting and Willie Mullins, for one, is not a man to be pressured. It will be interesting to see how he, and others, adapt.