Notable Speech defeated Rosallion by a length and a half in a very strongly run race.

Both raced towards the rear in the first half of the race with Rosallion making his effort a little sooner than Notable Speech. They both slowed down in the final two furlongs compared to the previous six furlongs as indicated by their Finishing Speed Percentages (FSP).

Notable Speech: FSP: 96.77%

Rosallion: FSP: 95.39%

This suggests that Notable Speech saw the race out a little stronger than Rosallion and that is derived from their finishing splits which were as follows.

Final Two Furlong Sectionals:

Notable Speech: 25.11secs

Rosallion: 25.55secs

This was a race that tested stamina rather than speed and it is clear from the data that Notable Speech outstayed Rosallion. Throughout each of the final two furlongs he was faster than Rosallion, the seventh furlong providing the greatest discrepancy.

Furlong Seven:

Notable Speech: 11.9secs

Rosallion: 12.17secs

That Notable Speech finished the race better does not mean that Rosallion failed to stay a mile. He was 0.35secs faster than Haatem (3rd) in the final two furlongs, and substantially quicker than the rest of the field. It was simply a case of Notable Speech handling the attritional nature of this race better than his nearest rival.

The point should be made that Rosallion was making his seasonal reappearance and may have lacked a bit of match practice, something that Notable Speech had from his prep runs at Kempton.

The data is clear. If we get a very strongly run race at Ascot Notable Speech may well come out on top again given that there has to be a doubt about Rosallion’s stamina. After all his sire was the top class sprinter Blue Point and there is little stamina influence on the dam’s side of the pedigree.

Tactics v attrition

This race did not showcase both horses’ main asset which is speed, and it is interesting to consider what may happen if the Ascot race becomes tactical rather than attritional.

Rosallion is quite a keen going sort with a lot of speed, and that speed got him out of trouble in a steadily run Irish 2000 Guineas. This race was run at a much slower tempo than the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket allowing Rosallion to save energy and then quicken from what was a poor position to catch Haatem who had got first run.

He recorded an FSP of 108.57% compared to 95.39% at Newmarket and whereas his fastest split at Newmarket came in the third furlong (11.21secs), at the Curragh he could harness his speed for a fast finish.