THERE is nothing major to report from the open Grade 1s at the Dublin Racing Festival as it was very much as you were among the established top-rated horses in each division.
Galopin Des Champs won (4/11, eight Grade 1s now), El Fabiolo won (4/11, four Grade 1s), State Man won (2/5, eight Grade 1s), and none did anything to harm their Cheltenham chances but nor did we learn anything of note.
Galopin Des Champs had quite an easy race by staying chase standards, allowed a handy lead at a steady pace, El Fabiolo put in his trademark handful of messy jumps before winning easily, while State Man does what he does, aided by the second favourite resenting having to make the running.
There were perhaps one or two pointers among the beaten horses, however. Fastorslow jumped much better than Galopin Des Champs, Race IQ’s jumping metric showing him gaining 12 lengths on the winner through the race, but J.J. Slevin didn’t want to use that advantage as it would have meant lifting the pace and instead took back after each good jump, happy to take a lead.
He will likely make more use of that jumping in the Gold Cup and he could improve for this run having come off a 69-day break and missed a target since his John Durkan win, though the favourite sets a very high bar.
Consistency
Dinoblue may not be at the level of El Fabiolo, but continues to impress with her consistency over fences, yet to finish out of the two in nine runs over fences, though the likely move up in trip at Cheltenham remains an unknown.
Captain Guinness took a step back in the right direction when third in the same race, seemingly over the atrial fibrillation he suffered from at Christmas, an issue that he also had as a novice chaser.
The two mile and a furlong trip that chases are run over at Leopardstown has long seemed to stretch him, as he has often travelled well into the straight only to weaken from there, but the Champion Chase distance just short of two miles is more his thing and he could well hit the frame again.
As for the Champion Hurdle, the predominant thought after Sunday was how small the field for that race will likely be.
There are 18 entered now but any more than five turning up on the day would be a surprise.
IF there was calm among the proven stars at the DRF, there was tumult in the novice scene, particularly the chasers, with both Marine Nationale and Gaelic Warrior running far below expectations.
It is difficult to be too dogmatic about either performance with nothing having emerged to explain their disappointing efforts, both surprising given neither has run a bad race in their respective careers.
Marine Nationale carried his head a little awkwardly in the finish, something he had also done on racecourse debut, and with him wearing a tongue-tie and having had a breathing operation, it is logical to think that his wind is catching him out.
None of this stopped him winning before, however, so perhaps the soft going was another contributing factor.
Despite connections saying he is best on a sound surface, he coped with slower ground over hurdles, but Barry Geraghty has pointed out that fences make a going preference more pronounced.
Harder
The reason for Gaelic Warrior’s poor run is even harder to discern. He jumped fine, if to the right, for the first three-quarters of the race before having an awkward landing four out which seemed to halt him completely, quickly left behind by Fact To File before jumping slowly at the next two and unseating at the last.
Perhaps it was the pace that did for him. Visually, he didn’t seem to be setting a mad gallop but time comparisons with the Leopardstown Chase, the handicap of the same trip later on the card, might suggest otherwise.
Chavez made the running in that 25-strong field and seemed to go a good clip, yet Gaelic Warrior was still 8.2 seconds faster than that one to the third last, while carrying more than 2st more.
Suspicion
As to the actual winners, sectional times suggest that Il Etait Temps did well to win from off the pace, the race finishing speed percentage of 107% well above a Leopardstown chase par around 100-101%, though the suspicion is that he is a specialist at this venue, indeed at this meeting.
The best three runs of each of his seasons so far have come at the DRF and the Dublin Chase next season already makes sense as a suitable race. His trips to Cheltenham have not been as fruitful, looking an unpleasant ride when pulling too hard in the 2022 Triumph before never getting into a rhythm in last year’s Supreme.
It is easy to knock the pure form of Fact To File’s two chase wins. His main market rival at Christmas – Minella Cocooner – seemed badly in need of the run while his win here came in a match the referee blew up before three out.
Positves
He does have two major positives in his favour, however. His times, both last weekend and at Christmas, were excellent when compared with other races on the card while Willie Mullins also took the unusual step to send him straight over fences and miss out a novice hurdle season.
One could easily argue that that those pluses are well-factored into his ante-post prices for later targets.
THE Dublin Racing Festival has some of the strongest betting markets of the entire year in Ireland and as ever the final price, as represented by Betfair Starting Price (BSP), tends to be the best source of truth in terms of accurate probabilities and can be a useful tool to consider.
Many of the prices in the open Grade 1s were quite static throughout the entire market cycle due to the presence of long odds-on shots but there were some interesting moves in some of the other races.
Predators Gold sat around 6/4 and 13/8 for much the morning in the Nathaniel Lacy before being sent off a BSP of 2.03, with his three stablemates all weak in the betting, and perhaps lacked the experience to win here. The youngest in the field at five, he should have more to offer.
Justified
There was a strong move for Il Etait Temps (BSP 8.34) in the Irish Arkle, the winner having been more than double that price when betting opened, and the support for the meeting specialist was justified.
A Dream To Share (BSP 1.92) was another that was a strong late mover, 5/4 having been freely available during the day, the market weighting his form as the pre-eminent bumper horse of last season strongly even with his absence since.
Given a lot to do, he couldn’t pick up in the same manner he had in his graded wins last season though this was likely the slowest ground he had encountered thus far.
In Sunday’s Tattersalls Ireland 50th Derby Sale Novice Hurdle, Ballyburn remained largely the same price all day and the big mover was his stablemate Jit Langy (BSP 27), a general 66/1 shot the previous day.
This was his first start since the previous May when an easy winner of a Tipperary maiden hurdle having made all, but he got a contrasting ride here, dropped out near last.
He made a mistake at the usual three out but made up some late ground and should step forward from this first run in 262 days.
Handicaps
In the handicaps, Canal End (BSP 6.95) was one that was notably strong in the three-mile hurdle given his stable are going through a quiet period, and he shaped better than this finishing position of seventh, racing too keenly near the lead and not lasting home.
There are races to be won with him when Peter Fahey starts firing again and he did win at the Fairyhouse Easter meeting in 2023.
Final feature
The market called both Heart Wood (BSP 7.41) and So Scottish (BSP 7.89) right in Sunday’s big handicaps, the latter looking to hit the front too soon in the Timeless Sash Windows Handicap Hurdle, while a final interesting feature of the weekend’s markets was the support behind the form of the novice handicap hurdle won by Ataboycharlie at the Christmas meeting.
Ataboycharlie himself was strong at BSP 7.4 before falling two out in the penultimate race of the meeting, yet to be asked for his effort though had raced closer than ideal to the pace, while both Park Of Kings (BSP 9.2) and Black Bamboo (BSP 15.1) from the same contest were well-backed before hitting the frame up in grade on Saturday.
The fourth from that race, Dollar Nolimit, halved in price at Punchestown the previous Monday so it might be form to watch, with the seventh Ca Plane Pour Moi one to keep in mind.
Having raced in the rear of mid-division, he got shuffled back after three out just as the first three home were making their moves from a similar spot and never got a chance, but finished off well despite a slow jump at the last and was better than his finishing position.
THERE were any number of potential Cheltenham winners on show over two days of the DRF, some obvious and others not so much, with one that falls into the latter group perhaps being The Yellow Clay for the Champion Bumper.
The Donohue Marquee Future Stars Bumper he contested has an excellent recent record of producing horses to run well at Cheltenham, the last five winners finishing:12211 in the Champion Bumper, and with this year’s winner Jeroboam Machin ruled out for the rest of the season, he looks the one to take from it.
He may only have finished fourth on the day, but he shaped second best and there is even a case that he could have improved past the winner.
This was his first start since the previous March when he won two four-year-old only bumpers and while both of those races were weak, he took a big step forward in form terms here, while also shaping better than the result.
Sent off 40/1 and ridden in mid-division near the rail, he moved as well at the strong-travelling winner into the straight but couldn’t get out, eventually having to be taken back to rear from where he quickened up sharply without getting a hard time, finishing as well as anything bar the winner.
There should be improvement for his first run in 314 days and he was in against mostly race-fit rivals here, while he was also carrying a double penalty and racing on ground slower than ideal, Gordon Elliott commenting in a stable tour back in the autumn that ‘I don’t think he’s going to be in love with proper heavy winter ground. We brought him away to work at Tipperary last week and he went in one of the later schooling races and he hated the ground.’
That is typically not an issue at Cheltenham, and he looks overpriced for the Champion Bumper at around 16/1 though I would want the non-runner, no-bet concession given he has already missed time this season.