ROYAL Ascot is always eagerly anticipated, and this year is no exception. It is a showcase for our sport providing top class action throughout. This year, the first day provides us with a superb renewal of the St James’s Palace Stakes featuring a clash between Notable Speech and Rosallion who are the best three-year-old milers we have seen this season.

An exploration of the Race iQ data that these two horses have produced in their careers so far gives us some insight into how they may perform on Tuesday.

The data does not provide us with conclusive evidence that one of them is vastly superior to the other, but as always in top class sport fine margins are critical. The obvious starting point must be the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket.

Notable Speech defeated Rosallion by a length and a half in a very strongly run race. Both raced towards the rear in the first half of the race with Rosallion making his effort a little sooner than Notable Speech. They both slowed down in the final two furlongs compared to the previous six furlongs as indicated by their Finishing Speed Percentages (FSP).

Notable Speech: FSP: 96.77%

Rosallion: FSP: 95.39%

This suggests that Notable Speech saw the race out a little stronger than Rosallion and that is derived from their finishing splits which were as follows.

Final Two Furlong Sectionals:

Notable Speech: 25.11secs

Rosallion: 25.55secs

This was a race that tested stamina rather than speed and it is clear from the data that Notable Speech outstayed Rosallion. Throughout each of the final two furlongs he was faster than Rosallion, the seventh furlong providing the greatest discrepancy.

Furlong Seven:

Notable Speech: 11.9secs

Rosallion: 12.17secs

That Notable Speech finished the race better does not mean that Rosallion failed to stay a mile. He was 0.35secs faster than Haatem (3rd) in the final two furlongs, and substantially quicker than the rest of the field. It was simply a case of Notable Speech handling the attritional nature of this race better than his nearest rival.

The point should be made that Rosallion was making his seasonal reappearance and may have lacked a bit of match practice, something that Notable Speech had from his prep runs at Kempton.

The data is clear. If we get a very strongly run race at Ascot Notable Speech may well come out on top again given that there has to be a doubt about Rosallion’s stamina. After all his sire was the top class sprinter Blue Point and there is little stamina influence on the dam’s side of the pedigree.

Tactics v attrition

This race did not showcase both horses’ main asset which is speed, and it is interesting to consider what may happen if the Ascot race becomes tactical rather than attritional.

Rosallion is quite a keen going sort with a lot of speed, and that speed got him out of trouble in a steadily run Irish 2000 Guineas. This race was run at a much slower tempo than the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket allowing Rosallion to save energy and then quicken from what was a poor position to catch Haatem who had got first run.

He recorded an FSP of 108.57% compared to 95.39% at Newmarket and whereas his fastest split at Newmarket came in the third furlong (11.21secs), at the Curragh he could harness his speed for a fast finish. His closing splits below compare his effort at Newmarket and the Curragh.

Final three furlongs at Newmarket and the Curragh:

Newmarket / Curragh

11.76secs 11.06secs

12.17secs 11.01secs

13.38secs 11.83secs

The difference is stark and is utterly pace related. Rosallion clearly has a sharp turn of foot that he could not utilise at Newmarket. To flash home in splits of 11.06secs and 11.01secs is impressive and it showed him in his best light. He was ridden patiently at the Curragh, which was nearly his undoing, but this suggests that connections were anxious to ride him to use his speed and see the trip out better than he had at Newmarket.

A tactical race at Ascot which becomes a test of speed would suit Rosallion a lot better than a very strongly run contest, and it may provide him with his best chance of winning. His brazen speed could be devastating.

This begs the question as to how Notable Speech would get on if the race does turn into a test of speed. To ascertain his suitability for this the data he produced before the 2000 Guineas, when winning at Kempton, is revealing.

He won a conditions race at Kempton on April 6th and in so doing launched himself into the 2000 Guineas picture. He was held up in this race which was steadily run, and much like Rosallion in Ireland, had to overcome the run of the race and did so by quickening smartly. He recorded an FSP of 113.86% compared to 96.77% at Newmarket. He was able to save energy for a fast finish and his final three furlongs were impressive. A comparison with Newmarket is below.

Final three Furlongs at Newmarket and Kempton:

Newmarket / Kempton

11.77s 11.60s

11.90s 10.93s

13.21s 11.08s

It is clear from this data that Notable Speech has a tremendous turn of foot, and whilst he was not trying to run down a horse as good as Haatem, the sustained speed he showed suggests that a tactical race that turns into a sprint at Ascot will not inconvenience him. Both he and Rosallion have a lot of speed, and both can quicken sharply. With that in mind a steadily run race may come down to jockeys’ acumen in getting a clear run and timing their effort.

If we analyse all their career runs in terms of raw speed Rosallion just comes out on top, but the margin is fine and could be overturned by any element of chaos that a horse race can produce. Below are the fastest furlongs that they have run in their careers and their top speeds which is interesting rather than predictive.

Top speed: 41.66mph

Fastest Furlong: 10.93secs (Kempton)

Top Speed: 41.79mph

Fastest Furlong: 10.90secs (Curragh)

Even though the data highlights the raw speed that both horses possess, the key to success on Tuesday may be stamina, as it was at Newmarket. The suspicion is that in a race run at an even or strong gallop over the stiff Ascot round mile where the FSP of the winner is 100% or less then Rosallion may struggle to harness the speed that he has for a fast finish, which is his main weapon, and find himself outstayed as he did at Newmarket.

The Race iQ data is clear that Notable Speech has shown himself to be the more versatile of the two. Where fine margins are so important his ability to see out the trip best may be the deciding factor in a fascinating contest.