THE big one-mile handicap at Sandown this afternoon, the Listen To BetMGM On talkSPORT Handicap, is not quite the Royal Hunt Cup. It’s around a bend for starters, and you only have to sift through about half the number of horses that you will have to analyse on Wednesday or before. The other upside is, if you are going to Sandown today, you don’t have to wear a top hat.

There are lots of positives about Dual Identity in today’s race. He goes really well at Sandown for starters. In five runs there, he has won three times and finished second once.

Two of those wins were over 10 furlongs, and he does see out that trip well, but his latest win, just three weeks ago, was over today’s course and distance. He showed a fine turn of foot to hit the front on the far side before keeping on well all the way up to the winning line, always holding Magic Memories’ challenge. Magic Memories enhanced the form of that race to an extent when he won a handicap at Yarmouth there on Wednesday, albeit at a lower level, off a 1lb higher mark.

The ground was soft that day at Sandown, an ability to stay further than the one-mile trip was not a liability to carry into the race. And it may be that Dual Identity got away with the drop in distance because of the emphasis that the ground placed on stamina at the distance. That was his first win over a mile.

Pacey pedigree

But he showed a lot of pace that day, and his pedigree says that he should probably be better over a mile than he is over 10 furlongs. His best sibling is Ayaar, who won four times over seven furlongs and who won a Spring Cup over a mile, finished fifth in a Royal Hunt Cup over a mile, and fourth in a Victoria Cup over seven furlongs. His half-sister Albany Rose won four times over five or five and a half furlongs. It may be that William Knight’s horse will have the pace to be able to cope with today’s distance on better ground.

His draw in stall three is probably a positive. The fact that the last 10 winners of this race were drawn in stall 10 or lower is a little bit of a red herring, and the race doesn’t always attract a big field. When Trais Fluour won it from stall 10 in 2021, he was actually in the outside box. When Via Serendipity won it from effectively stall five in 2022, he was in stall five of seven.  

But Dual Identity’s inside draw should allow Neil Callan drop him in early and save ground around the turn before ideally angling out early in the home straight. He is up 4lb for his last win to a mark of 97, but that is only 2lb higher than his peak rating, and he goes into the race in the form of his life.

Dancing danger

Dancing Magic is a big danger. Roger Teal’s horse ran well for a long way in the Spring Cup on his debut this season. Weak in the market beforehand, he and the ultimate winner Metal Merchant were the only two horses who were still on the bridle at the two-furlong marker. His run flattened out thereafter as lack of a recent run probably took its toll.

He is short though, and he was beaten at Chester’s May meeting, and he bolted before the start of a one-mile handicap at Epsom’s Derby meeting last time.  It is remarkable that he still hasn’t won a race, because he has put up good performances in good races. He finished fourth in the Futurity Trophy and in the Autumn Stakes as a juvenile, and he finished third in the Craven Stakes as a three-year-old last year. His turn may not be far away, but it looks like his chance has not been under-rated by the market.

By contrast, The Coffee Pod’s chance in the Churchill Tyres Supporting Macmillan Sprint Handicap at York may have been a little under-rated.

Best of low draw

Richard Hannon’s horse ran better in the three-year-olds’ Dash at Epsom last time than his finishing position in ninth place suggests. Slowly away, he was well back in the field early on, and he was keen, and he didn’t appear to be at home on the downhill run. Fourth last as they raced inside the two-furlong marker, he moved towards the favoured stands’ rail and he finished off his race well.  As well as that, he raced from stall seven, the eight horses who finished in front of him all raced from double-figure draws. He did best of the low-drawn horses.

He should be happier today, stepped back up to six furlongs, the distance over which he recorded his only win. He should be happier back at York, the track at which he has recorded his only win, over today’s course and distance. His low draw is a positive, a low draw is usually a positive on York’s straight track, and he is down another 2lb for his Epsom run, down to a mark of 80, which is 6lb lower than his peak rating last year as a juvenile.

Middleham Park Racing have two in the race.  Ziggy’s Condor is the better-fancied of the two according to the market, and Richard Fahey’s horse is a player, but it was a similar story when they met in a novice stakes in September at York, a real horses-four-courses course, and The Coffee Pod came out on top that day.  He looks over-priced today.

Recommended

Dual Identity, 1pt each-way, 2.05 Sandown, 6/1 (generally)

The Coffee Pod, 1pt each-way, 3.35 York, 22/1 (generally)