HURRICANE Fly (43) clocked a seriously fast time once more when winning the Irish Champion Hurdle.

The early pace was good though not quite as strong as last time. Hurricane Fly dueled with old rival Jezki once more until that one ruined his chance with a blunder at the last flight. It looked like Hurricane Fly was just about to get on top anyway.

There’s not much left to say about Hurricane Fly. He’s won 24 of his 29 starts over hurdles and a record number of Grade 1s.

I’ve tried in the past to discern some pattern in Hurricane Fly’s form to explain his few losses. Mostly they seem to occur when he’s either in need of a run or a rest – neither of which is easy to predict.

You could argue that after two seriously fast and hard fought wins in a row Hurricane Fly will not be at his best for Cheltenham. You could also point to statistics which knock his chances of taking the big race for a third time.

The strongest negative statistic is that in the last 26 runnings of the Champion Hurdle, 17 horses have tried to repeat a previous win in the race in non-consecutive years. Only one won and just one more placed.

If the same proportion of champion hurdlers have attempted the feat in the entire history of the race then 49 attempts to win again in non-consecutive years have been made for just two successes.

One win was by Comedy Of Errors in 1975.

The other was by Hurricane Fly, who was also the only other horse to place in the race again in recent years when attempting another success after not winning the previous season.

So basically you could read the statistic as being negative, but Hurricane Fly has already defied them successfully. I’d be wary of saying definitively that two tough races will be enough to knock him off form.

The fact is Hurricane Fly is undoubtedly one of the best hurdlers of all time and goes into the Champion Hurdle on the back of two exceptionally fast Grade 1 wins.

Logically I’d have thought the bookies would have him as favourite rather than the 8/1 they’re currently offering.

The runner-up Jezki (40) moved really well almost all the way and looked set for success rounding the home turn. At that point Hurricane Fly had to be ridden along as the pace picked up slightly, and the only other horse going as well as Jezki was Arctic Fire who was several lengths behind.

However, running up to the last, things got a lot more competitive. Hurricane Fly had ranged alongside and seemed to be going just a bit better. Then Jezki blundered at the last, losing a lot of momentum.

Pretty soon Arctic Fire had rushed by, leaving Jezki to finish third by seven and a half lengths.

You could argue that Jezki would have continued dueling all that way to the line with Hurricane Fly but for his blunder at the last obstacle. But if Jezki had been full of running I’m sure he’d have recovered much more easily from the error. His rapid loss of ground suggests to me that his fuel tank was running close to empty.

It strikes me that Jezki’s big effort in the Ryanair Hurdle less than four weeks before may have knocked him a little off form.

FRESH

In this regard I think it’s interesting to note that a pattern has developed in Jezki’s form since his novice days: He wins when he’s fresh and loses when he isn’t.

I call this the rest pattern and normally it means a horse is at their best on their first two runs of the season and then with breaks of at least 35 days thereafter.

Jezki’s form under National Hunt rules when he’s been fresh in this way shows nine wins from 12 tries, with two of his losses being very good seconds to Hurricane Fly. He’s lost the three times he hasn’t been fresh in this way since his novice days.

The thing is there are more than 35 days until the Champion Hurdle, so Jezki shouldn’t fail for lack of freshness. I rather wonder if his enthusiasm for battle may have been dented by three hard fought losses in a row.

The statistics suggest it’s hardly a plus for a Champion Hurdle runner to go into the big race on the back of three or more successive losses. In the last quarter century only Hardy Eustace and Granville Again have managed to win the Champion Hurdle after losing their last three starts.

I’ve always had in the back of my mind with Jezki the possibility that he could fizzle out like his half-brother Jered.

Up until he was a six-year-old Jered was a star. He won a string of big races, including the Champion Novice Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival by eight lengths. Then he turned seven and started losing. From seven onwards the only race he won from a dozen tries was a minor novice chase. Jezki has just turned seven.

All in all therefore, despite the fact he won the Champion Hurdle last year, I’m slithering towards a negative view on Jezki for the big race.

The runner-up Arctic Fire (42) continues to impress. He’s a big, strong, deep-chested sort who looks more like a two and a half mile chaser than a two mile hurdler.

He moved well as he lobbed along at the back of the field. Then he started to gain ground nicely as he was swung out wide approaching the straight. He picked up in good style without ever looking like getting to the winner.

Looking at his physique, I’m now wondering whether fast ground really is the principal requirement for Arctic Fire. It could be he simply needs a strong pace up front to bring his stamina into play.

A big field tends to generate a strong pace, and Arctic Fire’s record in big fields is impressive. If that narrow loss in the County Hurdle had gone his way he would have won all four times he’s run in fields of 11 or more.

In the County Hurdle he was only narrowly beaten when attempting to give weight to a horse that won a Grade 1 next time.

In fields smaller than 11 Arctic Fire, has lost eight times out of eight.

Recent renewals of the Champion Hurdle have seen relatively small fields line up. But 22 of the last 26 Champion Hurdles have featured fields of 11 or more, and when I add up the horses who look to be committed to this year’s race I come up with at least 11.

It could simply be that two miles is not quite far enough for Arctic Fire to win a Grade 1 and that if he’s going take a top race this season it will be the Aintree Hurdle over two and a half miles.

However, he’s earned speed ratings from me big enough to win a Champion Hurdle on his last two outings in strongly run two mile events. The Champion Hurdle is likely to be just as strongly run and takes place on a much more testing track.

INVISIBLE

Somehow Arctic Fire seems to have become the invisible party in two successive three-way contests for Ireland’s top hurdle races. The press have focused on the rivalry between Jezki and Hurricane Fly.

The fact that Arctic Fire has been right in there fighting out the races with them doesn’t fit this simple narrative. As a result he’s an outsider in the Champion Hurdle betting at 16/1.

In the first of his battles with Hurricane Fly and Jezki, Arctic Fire came off third best.

In the second, he split the pair. With the ground likely to be fast, the field big and the gallop searching, I like Arctic Fire’s chances of continuing the progression and beating Hurricane Fly, Jezki and the rest in the Champion Hurdle.

The juvenile Fiscal Focus (23) moved well all the way until rounding the home turn. At that point the field was tightly packed and he took a slight bump from Hurricane Fly which appeared to cause him to lose his action. He fell back rapidly.

On his previous start Fiscal Focus had earned a rating of 36 from me when winning over the same course and distance. That makes him one of the very best four-year-old hurdlers. Logically he should have a real chance in the Triumph Hurdle.

The concern I have is that all three wins Fiscal Focus has scored have followed breaks of at least 62 days.

I find it hard not to link this with the fact that Fiscal Focus acquired a tongue tie for this race. (Tongue ties are used to help stop a horse ‘choking up’, that is sucking their tongue and soft palate together through the force of their breathing, thereby blocking their airway).

That being so, and seeing how tired he got so quickly, I’d like to see him given a big break until his next run.

If he skips the Triumph and comes back at Aintree or Punchestown instead I’ll be very interested in his chances of taking one of the top juvenile hurdles.