SEE The World (35-pace adjusted 39) put up a truly extraordinary performance to win a bumper at Wincanton last Thursday week. He appeared to have thrown the race away but then recovered in amazing style.
Rounding the home turn See The World was absolutely cruising along in the lead, 0.53 of a second in front of his pursuers. He then hung violently left across the track and basically ran out.
He ground to a halt and his jockey, Aidan Coleman, looked down to check if his equipment had caused the problem. Realising it was the horse that was at fault, Coleman booted See The World back into action.
By the time he got going again See The World was 4.40 seconds behind the leader. The move cost him 4.93 seconds.
Once he got rolling, Sea The World fairly ate up the ground, closing in on the leader quickly. From the point he ran through the final jump he was fairly flying. From there he got home in just 13.1 seconds, compared with the 15 seconds taken by the next fastest winner from the last.
If I base my speed rating on the time See The World ran until he veered off the course I come up with 35. If I base it on his final time minus the 4.93 seconds he lost I also come up with 35.
My methods dictate I have to adjust that rating to take account of his amazing sprint finish and that gives me an adjusted rating of 39 - the biggest I’ve ever given a bumper winner before the Cheltenham Festival.
I don’t like adjusting my ratings to take account of what a horse might have done. But in this instance there are two clear indications of how fast See The World would have run but for nearly running out.
Trainer Emma Lavelle said: “He did what we hoped would do. He’s always been a horse we thought a lot of at home and he’s basically very straightforward. We didn’t know if he would handle that very heavy ground. He is a very good-moving horse, so I’m pretty sure he’ll prefer better ground.”
Lavelle added: “It was an extraordinary performance, to stop like that on the home turn and then get going again and finish like he did. I think the engine is probably even bigger than we thought.”
Normally you’d be trying to figure out which of Willie Mullins’ entrants is likely to win the Cheltenham Festival Bumper. After this performance, my money is definitely going to be riding on See The World.
In that regard Lavelle said: “After a performance like that you immediately think we’ll only get one chance of going for the Champion Bumper… I think he just needs a lead, which you’d hope he’ll get at Cheltenham. He is obviously a baby, so is it right to go to Cheltenham with him? We’ll see. I’ll have to chat with the owners and then see which way we’re going to go.”
As I write this Paddy Power have marked up See The World at 25/1 for Cheltenham, with the other bookies offering 20/1. I love those odds and reckon he should be favourite.