Beverley Saturday
2:05 Hilary Needler Trophy EBF Fillies’ Conditions Stakes 5f
There was a time when the lowest draws had a significant advantage over the minimum trip at Beverley, but changes to the start mean that while it’s still hard to win from a wide draw when the going is good or quicker, the benefit of the draw is not linear. To demonstrate, there have been 15 runnings of the Hilary Needler since 1997 with 10 or more runners, and the three lowest stalls have won just two of those despite often being favoured by the market.
I like to go against the field here, with narrow preference for Nad Alshiba Snow who made a very pleasing debut when second to Moving Force over course and distance last month despite being very weak in the market. This is the first horse that Mick Appleby has trained for leading owner Jaber Abdullah, and the change of policy is surely connected to how well Appleby did with Big Evs last year.
Big Evs was also beaten narrowly on his debut at Redcar and like him, Nad Alshiba Snow looked like she would benefit from that initial experience. A robust filly with a sprinting physique, she has the scope to improve markedly on that form and should be able to get a prominent pitch from stall seven.
Over Spiced is feared most having shown both speed and a willing attitude to beat a pair of subsequent winners at Leicester on his second start. The excellent Jo Mason keeps the ride and Over Spiced also has no excuses with the draw, with stall four statistically as good as any berth at track and trip.
2:40 Bet365 Two Year Old Trophy Conditions Stakes 5f
The colt’s equivalent is not a betting race. Moving Force makes some appeal having beaten Nad Alshiba Snow here last time, but the race favourite is an unraced and well-bred colt who cost €460,000 at the Arqana Breeze-Up Sales and is impossible to assess for those who prefer to make their judgments based on competitive racecourse form.
3:15 Bet365 Handicap 7f 96y
This is more like it – a handicap for older, exposed horses with the ground expected to ride on the quick side of good and I’m keen to give Billyb another chance after shaping better than the result on his debut for Craig Lidster at York.
He was one of a group which helped force a stronger pace than ideal on the Knavesmire which saw the hold-up horses sweep through late to win. Those who pressed the pace weakened late with Billyb faring best in hanging on for a share of the prize money in fifth, with the next home of that leading group finishing 11th, indicating just how well Billyb did not to weaken out of things.
The five-year-old has a decent chance of getting across to the inside rail from stall four and if he can do so, he will increase his chances of winning markedly. Two of the three on his inner have a habit of missing the break while On The River, who can lead, is better suited by a much softer surface.
Haydock Saturday
1:50 Betfred Passionate About Sport Achilles Stakes (Listed) 5f
It’s hard to oppose the Nunthorpe hero Live In The Dream who would merely need to repeat his latest half-length second of nine to Kerdos in the Temple Stakes over course and distance to win. That run came on ground with plenty of ease in it and he will be better on the anticipated quick ground here. The son of Prince Of Lir has the ability to go hard and then quicken off the front, an attribute only the best sprinters possess, and that should see him burn his rivals off by the furlong pole.
With Believing and Commanche Falls better known for their exploits over six furlongs and Korker and Marshman inclined to lose ground at the stalls, I’d fancy Democracy Dilemma and Tees Spirit to keep closest tabs on the favourite and that pair could boost the returns on exotic bets.
2:25 Betfred ‘Play Fred’s £5
Million’ Handicap 1m 3f 175y
Not many of the runners here arrive in obvious form, and I thought this was less competitive than the numbers would suggest. With Charlie Johnston getting an across-the-card treble on Thursday having been quiet for a while, it’s hard to ignore the claims of Knightswood, who has been placed off similar marks on two of his three starts this season.
He is likely to give huis running again and is much more reliable than stablemate Struth, but I prefer the claims of Divina Grace, who ran right up to her best when a length-and-a-half third of 11 to Ayyab at Goodwood last time. That was her seasonal reappearance and she had finished 2023 on an upward curve, winning at Bath and Newmarket on fast turf, and there must be a chance she can continue that progress, particularly with underfoot conditions firmly (pun intended) in her favour.
3:00 Betfred Nifty 50 Lester
Piggott Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) 1m 3f 175y
Being married to Lester Piggott’s daughter means that this contest is high on the list of group race trophies that William Haggas wants on his mantelpiece and having won the inaugural running of the contest in its current guise with Sea La Rosa, he’s taken to score again with another daughter of Sea The Stars, with Sea Theme his only representative.
Sea Theme was unraced at two but quickly developed into a smart performer at this trip last season, winning the Listed Galtres Stakes at York from a pair of older fillies, both of whom won at that level on their next starts.
She got very warm and seemed to lose the race in the paddock when last seen in the Princess Royal Stakes at Newmarket, but it should pay to ignore that run and focus on her form at York, which gives her a big chance, even without further progress. Given this is just her fifth run, however, it would be a surprise if she didn’t improve on her three-year-old form, and I can’t imagine she will arrive here short of fitness, given the personal prestige of this event.
3:35 Betfred John Of Gaunt Stakes (Group 3) 7f 37y
I’m convinced that Point Lynas can win a group prize this year, and Haydock should suit his style. The worry is that he’s one of three readily identifiable front-runners in the John Of Gaunt and it’s easy enough to imagine a scenario where the leaders cut their own throats.
Whether being drawn widest of that trio is a blessing or a curse is another question I’m struggling to answer, but I’d rather back Point Lynas and be wrong than miss him and be proven right. Small stakes, then, seems the sensible approach.
Recommended:
Nad Alshiba Snow 2:05 Beverley – 1pt win 11/1 (general)
Billyb 3:15 Beverley – 1pt win 9/1 (general)
Live In The Dream to beat Democracy Dilemma 1:50 Haydock – 0.5pts Exacta
Live In The Dream to beat Tees Spirit 1:50 Haydock – 0.5pts Exacta
Divina Grace 2:25 Haydock – 1pt win 9/2 (general)
Sea Theme 3:00 Haydock – 1pt win 6/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)