13:30 Virgin Bet Cheltenham Festival Money Back Handicap Chase 2m 78y
There are plenty to consider here despite the small field, with a narrow vote going to Gold Des Bois on value grounds.
The selection was well behind Pay The Piper at Musselburgh last time, but he lost all chance with an uncharacteristic blunder at halfway there, and is better judged on his previous close third to Malystic over course and distance, where he looked a shade unlucky when unable to get a run in the straight.
He had Mackenberg and Xcitations behind him that day, and is weighted to confirm the form, so shouldn’t be a bigger price than that pair, as he is at present.
It’s also worth noting the importance of good going to Gold Des Bois, who is just 1-19 on ground softer than good, but has won three from 10 on officially good ground. With no rain forecast and the watering cycle finishing on Thursday, the going should dry back to good for this fixture, and that will suit the selection ideally.
15:15 Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Handicap Chase 3m 2f1y
Does He Know looks, at first glance, to face a stiff task in conceding 16lb and more to all his rivals in the Grimthorpe Chase, but on closer examination his chance appears to be a solid one in the likely conditions, and he rates a bet despite his impost.
Once again, the prevailing good ground is very much in his favour, and his lifetime record on good or quicker ground reads: 121111213, compared to 21R8510F on a softer surface.
His latest run was an excellent third in the Grade 2 Denman Chase on ground described by Timeform as firm, and the more the turf dries out, the more it will favour this class act.
The main danger at the trip could be Castle Robin, as the Likeable Cooper’s Cross has stamina to prove beyond three mile.
13:50 Bet365 Morebattle Hurdle 2m 51y
I’m a big fan of Lorna Fowler’s Colonel Mustard, who heads the weights for the Morebattle Hurdle, and while he has his share of weight, he is a pacey sort who ought to be well suited by the track at Kelso.
Third to Sir Gerhard in Grade 1 company last term when ridden by a rider unable to draw his claim, he improved further to finish an excellent third in the County Hurdle won by State Man last March before failing to stay two and a half mile in Grade 1 company at Aintree.
Since then, Colonel Mustard has shown useful form over fences, and will pay his way in that environment, but he remains very fairly treated over hurdles given what his Cheltenham conquerors (First Street was runner-up) have achieved since.
Kieran Buckley can claim 3lb from the 12 stone he’s been allotted, and while a career-best will be required, he’s sure to be spot-on for this as he attempts to annex the £100,000 bonus on offer for winning this race and the County Hurdle.
14:25 Bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 2f 25y
Emmet Mullins was on the mark at this meeting last year, and he has an intriguing runner in this Grade 2 hurdle in the shape of point-to-point winner Feronily, who has been placed in two of the strongest bumpers run at Leopardstown this season, finding only Ile Atlantique too strong before finishing third to A Dream To Share at the Dublin Racing Festival.
It’s unusual for Irish trainers to switch bumper runners to hurdles mid-season, but while winning a maiden hurdle would be a cheap way of losing novice status for 2023/24, the idea of running such a promising sort in graded company makes plenty of sense.
Failure to win preserves novice status for the following season, while winning makes the pill much easier to swallow.
The son of Getaway won his only start in points as recently as late-November, so I don’t see the transition to hurdles now as being problematic, and he looks a very exciting recruit to the jumping ranks.
15:00 Bet365 Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f 189y
Dancewiththewind carries the colours of Geoff and Elspeth Adam – veterans on the Scottish scene who won some big prizes with Pat’s Jester some 30 years ago – and is trained by Harriet Graham and Gary Rutherford, who also have the popular Aye Right for the Adams.
Off for almost exactly two years after winning his first two starts in handicap hurdles, Dancewiththewind needed a couple of spins to get him back to peak fitness, but he looked better than ever when winning a 14-runner event at Wetherby on St Stephan’s Day by a length and half from Brentford Hope.
That race went under the radar on a very busy day, but it looked a strongly contested event for the grade, and that notion has been backed up by subsequent results, with no fewer that five of the unplaced horses winning next time out.
Upped 3lb for that, Dancewiththewind won with his head in his chest over course and distance last time from Ginger Mail, and the handicapper again appears to have underrated that effort, as he is now just 4lb higher for that effort, which seems very lenient.
He steps up to two and a half mile now, and all his hurdle wins have come at the minimum trip, but as an Irish point winner with a stout pedigree, he should have no issue with the longer trip, and could well improve further for the test.
15:35 Bet365 Premier Chase (Listed) 2m 7f 96y
This looks an excellent spot for Coral Gold Cup winner Le Milos, who looks the likeliest winner of an intriguing event.
The Shunter has stamina to prove, and also needs to make the frame here to gain qualification for the Grand National, and my thinking is that connections would rather be sure that he can be placed than throw caution to the wind looking for a win in a race of limited importance in the grand scheme of things.
Zanza is also declared at Newbury, and is a specialist at that track, so is opposable even if turning up, and it may be that Wishing And Hoping could help boost exotic returns as he is likely to be handed an easy lead, and while having something to find on the figures, is likely to have every advantage in terms of the run of the race.
Gold Des Bois 1:30 Doncaster – 1pt win at 10/1 (general)
Colonel Mustard 1:50 Kelso – 2pts win at 7/1 (general)
Dancewiththewind 3:00 Kelso – 2pts win at 5/1 (general)
Last week’s selections include Kitty’s Light, selected at 11/4