AS a time analyst, there are few things I like more than two championship races being run at the same distance, on the same course, within a short time of each other.
I got just that last week, when the Juddmonte-sponsored Cheveley Park Stakes and the Middle Park Stakes on Saturday allowed for direct comparisons between superior two-year-old fillies and superior two-year-old colts at six furlongs at Newmarket within a 35-minute window. The wind was gusting, but in other respects conditions were exactly the same.
The Cheveley Park went to Alcohol Free in a time of 1m 10secs, while the Middle Park went to Supremacy in 0.27secs (nearly two lengths) quicker. Sectionals (my own: I still do not trust the ones provided officially) show that the two races were run in broadly similar and largely efficient fashion. To a large degree, what you saw was what you got.
The result is a 111 timefigure for Alcohol Free, which puts her up with the best in her division (Miss Amulet now rated on her 110 here), and a 117 for Supremacy, which makes him best in class by a narrow margin (Lucky Vega now rated on his 115 here). I make it that there was only 0.03secs between the two (in favour of the filly) in the final two furlongs.
Worthy leader
It will be slightly disappointing if there are not still better performances to come from a few youngsters this term – perhaps in the Dewhurst Stakes, Fillies’ Mile and Futurity – but Supremacy is a worthy leader at this stage, and he put his speed to good use from the front here. Lucky Vega still has prospects, including at seven furlongs or a mile in time, while Minzaal (106 here, 111 previously) looks an out-and-out sprinter.
Good though Alcohol Free was in winning the Cheveley Park Stakes, she was not quite as good as Isabella Giles had been in the Rockfel Stakes over a furlong further the day before. Isabella Giles burnt up the turf in a wind-assisted time of 1m 22.55secs, just 0.18secs outside US Navy Flag’s juvenile course record.
That makes for a base time rating of 108, but Isabella Giles ran her last two furlongs in a fleet-footed 22.75secs (Alcohol Free managed just 23.40secs the following day) and gets raised to 114 as a result. Isabella Giles is anything but slow, then, but she does seem likely to stay a mile.
Good prospect
The much-touted La Barrosa had been less impressive when winning the Tattersalls Stakes on the Thursday by comparison, 2.74secs slower overall and 1.27secs slower in the last two furlongs than Isabella Giles went on to be (the latter with a bit more help from the wind, admittedly). That translates into a possibly generous sectional rating of 106 on La Barrosa, though he did have to overcome trouble in running and looks a good prospect.
The Royal Lodge Stakes over a mile at Newmarket on Saturday turned into a late sprint, which New Mandate was well equipped to win (22.43secs for the final two furlongs).
A modest overall timefigure becomes a useful 106 rating for the winner once those splits have been allowed for, though runner-up Ontario (104) looks more a staying type and remains open to improvement.
Overdrive
Be that as it may, Ontario must now be regarded as some way behind High Definition in the Ballydoyle pecking order. The latter took the Group 2 Beresford Stakes at the Curragh on Saturday by three quarters of a length from Monaasib, but looked in trouble for a long way (touched 99/1 in running) before going into overdrive late on.
Those late splits take High Definition up to 113 (Monaasib on 108), though it has to be wondered if he will be vulnerable at a mile, never mind seven furlongs, at the top level as a two-year-old. High Definition does look like being very smart next year, however.
Elysium’s win in the Weld Park Stakes at the Curragh on Sunday came in a modest overall time (23lb slower than 97-rated Van Gogh) but with some quick late splits, and she enters the juvenile top 100 with a rating of 101 now.