THOMAS Brown (36-pace adjusted 39) did really well to take a trial for the Neptune Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day after a bad mistake two out.
The error was almost certainly forced by the markedly increased pace of the race as the runners set off down the hill.
Thomas Brown couldn’t get himself organised in time at the speed he was going. He lurched over the flight and lost the lead and a good deal of momentum. With the runner-up not stopping, it’s not surprising Thomas Brown went 47/1 in running at one point.
It was stamina that came to Thomas Brown’s rescue on the run-in. It enabled him to stage a rally that saw him catch the runner-up.
It’s obvious that Thomas Brown needs to be stepped up to three miles.
Trainer Harry Fry’s indication that his next run will be the Albert Bartlett Hurdle over that distance sounds a smart plan.
It’s interesting to note that Thomas Brown’s two losses since his debut have been on the two occasions he’s encountered soft or heavy ground.
He got beaten a distance when he ran on heavy, with his jockey reporting that he was never travelling.
This being so, Fry’s plan to lay him off until the Cheltenham Festival has an added bonus in that it will almost certainly ensure he avoids soft or heavy going.
Thomas Brown is a pretty athletic sort for a stayer and can clearly produce a fair bit of acceleration.
LONG-STRIDING
The runner-up Robinsfirth (36-pace adjusted 39) on the other hand is a tall, long-striding, old fashioned three-mile chasing type. The moderate early pace over just two and a half miles can hardly have suited him.
Given Robinfirth’s size and the fact he’s had leg trouble, I imagine trainer Colin Tizzard will want to avoid fast ground with him.
That makes the spring festival meetings, especially Cheltenham, look doubtful targets.
The thing to do probably is to kick on with him now while the wet weather prevails, hope to win something decent, and focus on his novice chasing season next term. He could be a real star over the bigger jumps.