York Saturday
2:55 William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap 5f
Jawaal is tempting given he’s done me a few good turns and barely came off the bridle despite finishing down the field here at the Dante meeting.
He will do better with the benefit of that outing, but I’m not sure the lowest stall is ideal for one who would prefer to be covered up for a late run.
I backed Zargun in that contest, and he also caught the eye, looking rusty after a break, but staying on again after threatening to drop out. He’s been dropped 2lb for that creditable effort, and was placed in this race 12 months ago from a higher mark.
Scott Dixon’s gelding is also coming out of the same stall as he was last year, and while he’s not one to hold his form for long, he looks on the cusp of a big run, and makes most appeal at the weight at a track where he has a record in big-field handicaps which reads 3326.
He’s also entered here on Sunday, and it would be interesting to see whether Dixon will ask him to back up quickly.
3:30 William Hill Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) 1m 5f 188y
Glenartney was a frustrating filly last year, in that she rarely if ever had her ideal conditions, namely a trip beyond a mile and a half and some ease in the ground. She was pulled out of the Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster due to quick ground, and the same thing happened on her next intended outing at Newmarket.
She did get soft ground at Doncaster in November, but the 10-furlong trip was much too sharp, and she could only stay on past beaten horses in the straight.
A prep run on quick ground at Goodwood last month will have put her spot on for this more realistic assignment, and she finally gets a combination of trip and ground which promises to suit her.
This isn’t the strongest race of its type, and I’ll be disappointed if Glenartney can’t go very close.
Goodwood Saturday
2:15 William Hill Festival Stakes (Listed) 1m 1f 197y
I’m inclined to forgive Majestic Dawn a poor run at Chester, as he did too much at a track which didn’t seem to suit, and he is the clear pick of the field in this listed contest based on the balance of his form.
He would certainly be a much shorter price if he came here without that Chester run, but I’m more than happy to write that off, while suggesting that it will have done the primary job of getting him closer to a physical peak for this assignment.
Stormy Antarctic won this last year, and would be a danger with a repeat, but he didn’t really repeat that form later in the season, and is not getting any better as he approaches veteran status.
Haydock Saturday
2:00 Cazoo Hell Nook Handicap 2m 45y
The booking of Tom Marquand for Merveillo takes the eye. It’s assumed that the horse was bought for €160,000 from the yard of Christophe Ferland to go jumping, but although he represents J.P. McManus and Jonjo O’Neill, he is being campaigned with good flat handicaps in mind, and this doesn’t appear to be a sighter for Market Rasen in August.
A listed winner at Toulouse when making most of the running last season, Merveillo was held up on his return/debut for Jonjo when fourth at Newbury, and he should do better under more positive tactics.
It’s hard to say how strong the race he won was, but he ran into an exceptional sort for the grade when third to Manobo at Saint-Cloud, and even judged on that effort, he looks reasonably treated. Given the prospect of further improvement, he looks much too big at a general price of 33/1.
2:35 Cazoo Silver Bowl Handicap 1m37y
Mighty Ulysses should prove hard to beat given his profile, and a plethora of pace in opposition should ensure this race is truly run. That contested pace is probably a negative to the chances of City Runner, but a big price makes up for that concern to a large extent, and he didn’t get the credit he deserved for an excellent second in the Esher Cup at Sandown last time.
He missed an engagement at Chester to come here, and I think he remains on a winnable mark having gone up 2lb for the Sandown run behind Wanees.
Well placed in a front-running role in that race, he was still confirming himself an improved horse since stepping up to a mile, and he gained a handicap mark for race run over shorter.
Despite being by Caravaggio, he clearly has a fair degree of stamina, although he found the Esher hill draining him having looked sure to win with a furlong to go.
This track ought to suit, and he should be as effective tracking a strong pace as dictating a modest one.
3:10 Cazoo Sandy Lane Stakes (Group 2) 6f
El Caballo and Go Bears Go dominate the betting, and while the latter has the better turf form in the book, I would expect Karl Burke’s colt to prove that his recent progress has been down to physical development rather than a reliance on all-weather surfaces.
An impressive winner of the three-year-old contest on All-Weather Finals day at Newcastle, he has seen that form franked when Tiber Flow won the Carnarvon Stakes last weekend.
El Caballo is an imposing colt who has clearly developed well from two to three, whereas many of last year’s sprinting juveniles need to prove that they have trained on so well.
Go Bears Go looked as good as ever when winning the Pavilion Stakes at Ascot, and is much respected here, while Flaming Rib will appreciate the return to six furlongs after beating King’s Lynn over five at Chester.
He’s drawn on the opposite wing to his main rivals, but is a danger to all if that doesn’t prove a handicap (never easy to predict at Haydock, which has differing home-straight combinations to work with, each with their own idiosyncrasies).
3:45 Cazoo Temple Stakes (Group 2) 5f
Winter Power is much better than her rivals when on-song, and she should not lack fitness despite making her reappearance. She is suited by a speed-favouring five furlongs, and can fail to see the trip out on a stiff track, as she showed in the King’s Stand last year.
I’d leave her alone at Ascot, but Haydock should be ideal, and I can’t find a runner to touch her if she runs to form.
It’s quite possible that she will break this race up, forcing her forward-going rivals to do too much in pursuit, and paving the way for the hold-up horses to come through at the finish.
As such I will play her in forecasts to beat a few who fit the bill; Moss Gill has the ideal profile, albeit with a problematic draw, while King’s Lynn will have benefited from a pipe-opener at Chester, and always does his best work late; Mondammej is ideally suited by coming late off a strong pace at the minimum trip, and this race could suit him perfectly despite his massive odds – I’ve had a small each-way bet on him at 66/1, and will have him under the favourite in a forecast as well.
Recommended
Zargun 2:55 York – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (general – 4 places)
Glenartney 3:30 York – 1.5pts win @ 11/2 (general)
Winter Power to beat Mondammej/King’s Lynn/Moss Gill 3:45 Haydock - 0.5pt SFC x 3