OF course, nearly all eyes will be on Leopardstown this weekend, but a few may be on Sandown, and it might pay to keep at least one of them on Gustavian in the Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase.
Anthony Honeyball’s horse is 10 now, but he has been in really good form this season so far.
He finished third in the Badger Beer Chase at Wincanton on his seasonal return, and he can be marked up significantly on the bare form of that run, given that he was hampered when The Changing Man fell in front of him at the second fence down the back straight. Also, he raced in mid-division from early that day in a race that was dominated by the prominent racers.
In the end, he did well to keep on as well as he did to finish third.
Disappointing next time in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle, he bounced back to form last time at Aintree when he went down by just a neck to a progressive rival in Fortunate Man.
Visibility was compromised at Aintree but, from what we could see, Gustavian led from early, and it appeared as if he rallied after Fortunate Man had headed him somewhere around the final fence.
He went down by a neck in the end, with the first two finishing well clear of their rivals.
Fortunate Man ran well at Windsor next time to finish second to Planned Paradise off a 5lb higher mark.
Gustavian gets to race off a mark of 126 today, 4lb higher than his Aintree mark, still 11lb lower than his peak and 3lb lower than his hurdles mark, and that gives him a real chance.
He has never run over fences at Sandown, but he jumps well, and his usual prominent racing style is an asset at Sandown on the chase track.
He goes well on soft and heavy ground too, and he stays this trip well.
Over-priced
At Musselburgh, the Bet365 Scottish Champion Chase looks competitive, but Fidelio Vallis has plenty in his favour, and he looks a little over-priced.
Harry Derham’s horse goes well at Musselburgh, his record there reads 221, the 1 recorded on New Year’s Day last year over today’s course and distance, when he stepped up to this extended two-and-a-half-mile trip at the track for the first time.
Off the track after that until he returned in the Sir Peter O’Sullevan Handicap Chase at Newbury’s Coral Gold Cup meeting at the end of November, he only finished sixth last time in the fog at Chepstow’s Welsh National meeting, but he travelled well up with the leaders to the top of the home straight that day, before coming under a ride after the fifth last fence, and fading from there.
He is obviously going to have to do better than that here, but there is every chance that he will.
This race may have been his target for a little while, and his trainer’s horses are running into form again after having had his gallop washed away by Storm Bert.
Harry Derham has had two winners and three seconds from his last six runners.
Fidelio Vallis is down 2lb for his last run to a mark of 140, 9lb lower than his peak. Track, trip and ground are all in his favour today, and the fitting of cheekpieces for the first time could elicit a little more improvement.
Recommended:
Fidelio Vallis 2.50 Musselburgh - 1pt win 9/1 (generally)
Gustavian 3.42 Sandown - 1pt win 5/1 (generally)
Donn recommended Cheltenham winner Gowel Road at 7/2 in last week’s column