THERE are many hypotheses surrounding the point at which the National Hunt season really starts. Some say that it’s on the day after Punchestown, some say it’s at Listowel, others say that it’s on Mercedes Benz Chase day at Chepstow, or it used to be anyway, when the BBC cameras would roll into town and you’d see horses jumping fences on television for the first time since Galway Plate day.
There’s the Down Royal theory and there’s the Charlie Hall theory and there’s the whenever-the-rain-falls theory, which is on dodgy ground this season. The final theory, chronologically speaking, is the Paddy Power Gold Cup theory, that the National Hunt season starts with the Mackeson Gold Cup or the Murphy’s or the Thomas Pink, depending on your vintage or your priorities, and here we are.
The presence of Protektorat at the top of the handicap for today’s feature puts a slightly unusual hue on the race, pushing, as it does, five of his 14 rivals out of the handicap.
He has a chance too, Protektorat. It goes without saying that Dan Skelton’s horse is the class horse of the race, the Ryanair Chase winner just eight months ago and rated 12lb and more superior to his rivals today.
Had the ground been a little softer, he would have been interesting at the price. That said, he might not have been available at the price, had the ground been a little softer.
Ginny’s Destiny has had this race as his target for a while now, and it makes sense that he heads the market. As a front-running Paul Nicholls-trained second-season chaser set to be ridden by Harry Cobden, making his seasonal debut in the Paddy Power Gold Cup having come via the Turner’s Chase and the Manifesto Chase last spring, and set to race off a handicap rating of 155, his profile is remarkably similar to that of last year’s winner, Stage Star.
Likeable attributes
He has a lot of the attributes that you look for too, as a second-season chaser who has good form at Cheltenham and who has been targeted at the race. But he is probably shorter than he should be. He is shorter than Stage Star was last year in a less competitive race, and Stage Star was the previous season’s Turners Chase winner.
Ginny’s Destiny’s stable companion Il Ridoto is interesting at a bigger price. He is 3lb out of the handicap, but he is still able to race off a handicap rating of 141, which is 2lb lower than the mark off which he was just nutted by Fugitif in the December Gold Cup on the New Course 11 months ago.
He was well-beaten on his debut this season, but that was in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow, over hurdles. The fact that he has had a prep run is a positive historically, and that run should leave him spot on for today. He is interestingly-handicapped.
The three-strong Irish challenge is up against it, if history is a guide, with only one Irish-trained Paddy Power Gold Cup winner (Tranquil Sea in 2009) since Michael O’Brien sent Bright Highway over to win the race in 1980.
The first-time blinkers, replacing cheekpieces, will have to rejuvenate Janidil, if he is going to be competitive, and the chances of Let’s Go Champ and Hartur D’Arc are more obvious.
Winner of a good handicap chase over the intermediate trip at the Punchestown Festival, Let’s Go Champ ran better than his finishing position suggests in the Galway Plate, and the slight drop back down in trip should suit Henry de Bromhead’s horse. He is nine years old, but he has raced just five times over fences. There could be more to come from him.
More to come
There could be more to come too from Hartur D’Arc. Winner of his maiden hurdle for Tom Gibney, he stayed on well to win the Leinster National at Naas in March on his second run for Gavin Cromwell.
The marathon trip on heavy ground found him out in the Irish National, and he goes there with a chance. Significantly, his trainer had nine winners at Cheltenham last season.
At the prices, however, Imagine is the most interesting. A talented novice hurdler for Gordon Elliott and fifth in the Martin Pipe Hurdle at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival, he was impressive in winning his beginners’ chase at Fairyhouse last November, when he had subsequent Kim Muir and Mildmay Chase winner Inothewayurthinkin behind him in second place, and this year’s Galway Plate winner Pinkerton back in third.
He wasn’t as impressive as you would have expected a long odds-on shot to be in winning the Grade 2 Craddockstown Chase at Punchestown next time, but he battled on bravely to get home in the end by a half a length from Lucid Dreams, who was impressive in winning a match next time and was raised to a mark of 144. Back in third in the Craddockstown was Uncle Phil, who won the Dan & Joan Moore Handicap Chase next time, with Lucid Dreams finishing second, and was raised to a handicap mark of 150.
Imagine gets to race off a British mark of 145 today, and that gives him a real chance.
He has the potential to go beyond that mark now. He was well-beaten in a Grade 3 chase at Punchestown in January the last time he raced, but that just wasn’t his running.
If he was still with Gordon Elliott, he would probably be much shorter than he is for today’s race, but Harry Derham is doing really well since he started training two years ago, and he has his horses in good form this season.
Fresh
Imagine hasn’t had a run yet this term, but he goes well fresh, he has won on his seasonal debut in each of his three seasons racing, and it looks like this race has been his target for a little while.
He ran a big race in the Martin Pipe Hurdle on his only run to date at Cheltenham, he goes well on goodish ground, and he could go well again today.
Doyen Quest sets a good standard in the three-mile handicap hurdle 35 minutes later. Dan Skelton’s horse did well to get as close as he did to Josh The Boss, coming from well off a moderate pace, in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow on his seasonal return, and the third horse from that race, his stable companion Take No Chances, came out and won the listed mares’ hurdle at Wetherby’s Charlie Hall meeting two weeks ago.
He has to prove his stamina for this test, however and, at a bigger price, Gowel Road is more interesting.
Winner of the intermediate handicap hurdle at this meeting three years ago, Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horse ran a big race over today’s course and distance on his debut this season, giving best only to The Wallpark.
That horse is seriously progressive, that was his fourth win on the spin and he wouldn’t have to improve a lot to take his place among the top-staying hurdlers this season, and Gowel Road finished a good second to him, coming away from the rest of his rivals.
He goes well on good ground, he goes well at Cheltenham, and his trainer’s horses continue to be in good form. He could go well again.
Recommended
Imagine 2.20 Cheltenham 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (generally)
Gowel Road 2.55 Cheltenham 1pt win @13/2 (generally)