YOU can see why Baradar has found himself at the top of the market for this afternoon’s Peroni Nastro Azzurro Victoria Cup at Ascot. George Boughey’s horse ran a big race on his seasonal debut in the Lincoln.

He travelled really well through his race, he made good ground on the far side, away from the stands-side rail, and he looked a likely winner when he joined the front rank, travelling well, on the run to the furlong marker.

His run just flattened out through the final 200 yards, but he still put up a big performance in finishing third from his low draw. He was the only horse drawn in single figures to finish in the first five.

He goes well on soft ground, he gets to race off his Lincoln mark of 97, and the drop to seven furlongs today should be ideal for him.

But he is short, and in the back of your mind is the fact that, on his only run to date at Ascot, in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last year, he finished 28th of 29.

That was on fast ground, today’s ground should be much more to his liking, and Doncaster form often transfers well to Ascot, and there is every chance that he will go very well again today but, at a bigger price, Fresh may represent better value.

Big performance

James Fanshawe’s horse put up a big performance in finishing fourth in the Victoria Cup last year. The first three home that day raced, respectively, from stalls 27, 26 and 28, and all three raced down the stands’ side. Fresh raced out in the centre from stall 11.

He travelled well to the two-furlong marker, and he picked up smartly out in the centre when Danny Tudhope asked him to.

He was a little marooned out there though, as Vafortino and Accidental Agent duelled towards the stands’ side, with River Nymph finishing off his race well, even closer to the stands’ rail.

Fresh was beaten in the Wokingham next time, but he won his next two, both competitive handicaps over today’s course and distance.

For all that, he still gets to race today off a handicap rating of 102, the mark off which he won over today’s course and distance in September and just 4lb higher than last year’s mark.

He has had a run this season too, he stayed on nicely to take fifth place in a six-furlong handicap at Kempton four weeks ago, and that should set him up nicely for today’s race, a target that his trainer has surely had on his radar since the end of last season.

He is effective over six furlongs, but this seven-furlong trip is probably his optimum now. And he goes well at Ascot and on easy ground. He has won three times and finished second twice and third once and fourth once in 10 runs at Ascot.

And his draw in stall 11 of 23 is just about high enough in a race in which high numbers have been favoured in recent years.

Vafortino is a player too, even allowing for the fact that he is 6lb higher in the handicap than he was when he won it last year, and that Benoit De La Sayette’s claim has been reduced since by 4lb. Rainbow Fire comes into it, he is only 4lb higher than he was at Haydock last time, when he ran out an impressive winner of a good seven-furlong handicap, as does his Kempton conqueror Kingdom Come, now three for three on all-weather, if he can be as good on Ascot’s turf as he is on Kempton’s artificial surface.

Fresh is six now, and no horse aged older than five has won the Victoria Cup since Excellent Guest prevailed 10 years ago, but the Clipper Logistics horse has lots in his favour, and his Kempton comeback run was highly encouraging.

He should be able to step forward from that today and, if he does, that would give him a big chance.

Fillies’ handicap

Earlier on the day, Timeless Melody could be the answer to the mile fillies’ handicap.

She was runner-up in a fillies’ maiden at Kempton last April over a mile and three furlongs on her second and final run for Godolphin and Charlie Appleby to the exciting and sadly ill-fated William Haggas-trained filly Hello Jumeirah.

Off the track after that for over a year, and joining William Haggas after she was sold at the horses-in-training sale in August, she showed a really willing attitude in winning a seven-furlong novice stakes at Leicester last month on heavy ground.

She battled on resolutely that day to overhaul the leader Mexicali Rose – now rated 78 after running well at Nottingham last week – with the pair of them finishing miles clear of their rivals.

The handicapper has given her a mark of 80 for this, her handicap debut, and that looks more than reasonable. We know that she can operate on testing ground, and she raced last time as if she would improve for the step back up to a mile.

Timeless Melody, 2.05 Ascot, 7/2 (generally), 1 point win,

Fresh, 2.40 Ascot, 8/1 (generally), 1 point each-way,