IRISH-trained horses have won four of the last five renewals of the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch, and Irish trainers are strongly represented again in the 2023 renewal this afternoon.

Willie Mullins has been responsible for three of the four, he had the 1-2 in 2018 and he fielded the runner-up in 2021, Burning Victory, who came out second best in a duel with Buzz in the only renewal in the last five years that didn’t go to the Irish.

It’s an impressive record in a race that went to the Irish just once (Leg Spinner, Tony Martin, 2007) in the 26 years that ran from Vintage Crop to Low Sun.

Irish trainers are responsible for 10 of the 34 declared runners for this afternoon’s contest. Gordon Elliott’s horse Pied Piper has been all the rage since it was confirmed that Ryan Moore would ride, and that is obviously a potent trainer/jockey combination.

National Hunt class

Gordon Elliott has previous too when it comes to big flat handicaps, and Pied Piper is a classy hurdler - a Grade 2 winner and only just beaten in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham in March off a hurdles rating of 154. The Caldwell Construction gelding ran well for a long way in a qualified riders’ race at Killarney in August on his first run back since Punchestown - that should bring him forward nicely for today - and he could be well handicapped now on the flat, racing off a mark of 96.

The Shunter, Emmet Mullins’ sole representative, could also be well handicapped on the flat on a mark of 94. J.P. McManus’ horse is 10 now, but he is a classy National Hunt horse, and he ran well at Gowran Park last time, his first run since Punchestown, over an inadequate 12 furlongs. He should appreciate the step back up in trip today.

The Jessica Harrington-trained The Very Man will probably be staying on better than most, while Noel Meade’s two, Jesse Evans and Sheishybrid, both go there with chances. The latter could be the over-priced one of the two, last year’s Ulster Cesarewitch winner who ran well to finish second to Grand Providence in the Cesarewitch Trial over today’s course and distance last month. She gets to race off the same mark of 84 today, she is 6lb better off with her conqueror that day for a one-length beating, and she is over twice the price.

Strangely, at the time of writing, none of the Willie Mullins quintet is shorter than 20/1, although that may change, because Rachael Blackmore’s ride Jackfinbar was starting to attract some support yesterday afternoon.

By contrast, Vino Victrix was on the drift, and he may now be the value of the race. Hughie Morrison’s horse put up a big performance to finish second to the Charles Byrnes-trained Run For Oscar in the race last year.

Luck in running

He was unlucky on two counts that day. Fundamentally, he was unlucky to bump into a well-handicapped and primed-to-the-minute rival, and he was also a little unlucky in running. He didn’t have an awful lot of space on the far side three furlongs out, he had to engineer racing room for himself. He wouldn’t have beaten Run For Oscar even if he had been able to start his run earlier, but he probably would have finished at least a little closer than he did.

He hasn’t won since then, but it is probable that Hughie Morrison has had today in mind for him since this day last year. It is a positive that he has dropped down to a mark of 90, that he is 2lb lower than he was when he finished second last year. It is also a positive that he shaped encouragingly in his latest race, when he stayed on well to finish a close-up fourth in a two-mile handicap at Goodwood.

The aforementioned Grand Providence was less than two lengths in front of him that day, she has obviously enhanced that form since by winning the Cesarewitch Trial, and he meets her on 8lb better terms.

He is obviously proven at the track and at this time of year, we know that he stays this extreme trip, and he goes well on easy ground. He has probably been building up to today for a while, he has a nice draw in stall 12, and he could put up another big performance in the race.

Sprinting selection

Laugh A Minute could also put up another big performance in the Coral Sprint Trophy at York. Ado McGuinness’ horse ran really well in this race two years ago when he finished second behind Volatile Analyst. He didn’t have a lot of racing room through the closing stages of that race either, the winner moved across in front of him onto the far rail inside the final furlong, and he had to switch. He closed all the way to the line, going down by an ever-decreasing half a length in the end.

He raced off a mark of 92 that day, he is off a mark of 95 today, and he is eight now, he is not obviously progressive. But he is in the form of his life now. He was very good last time at the Curragh, keeping on well to just get up and nab Harry’s Hill in the Joe McGrath Handicap, a race in which he finished fourth in 2021 before coming on to this race.

He is remarkably versatile in terms of distance, the Joe McGrath is a five-furlong dash, but he has won twice over six and a half furlongs, and he wasn’t beaten far by Dunum in the Ahonoora Handicap over seven furlongs up the hill at Galway on soft ground during the summer. He goes well on soft ground too. Six furlongs on soft ground suits him well.

He has never won at York, but he finished placed there twice as a juvenile when he was with Roger Varian, so we know for sure that he handles the track, and his low draw in stall two is probably a positive. Ado McGuinness’ horses are running well, he had another good winner at Dundalk last Friday with Harry’s Bar, and Adam Caffrey is good value for his 5lb claim. He has built up a good relationship with Laugh A Minute too, he was very good on him last time in the Joe McGrath

Handicap.

Vino Victrix, 1 pt each-way, 2.40 Newmarket, 14/1 (generally)

Laugh A Minute, 1 pt each-way, 2.25 York, 14/1 (generally)