IT’S the age-old question, from a betting perspective, when Auguste Rodin runs: what to do with Auguste Rodin?
If he runs to his best, he will probably win today’s King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes. It’s just that he is binary, 1 or 0, there isn’t really any in between, or there wasn’t really any in between until he finished second behind White Birch in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh on Irish Guineas weekend.
The positives are very positive, in that, when he is good, he is very, very good. And, in fairness to Aidan O’Brien’s colt, he has been very, very good far more often than he hasn’t.
Like in the Derby and in the Irish Champion Stakes and in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. And last time in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes, when he was in front from a fair way out, and when he probably won with a fair bit more in hand than the bare winning margin.
He is the correct favourite, but he is short, and there is value beyond him.
You can understand why Oisin Murphy has chosen to ride Middle Earth in front of Sunway. Middle Earth is the Qatar Racing colt, he races in the Qatar Bloodstock silks, in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes (see above).
Qatar Racing Limited are a partner in Sunway, but the David Menuisier-trained colt races in the colours of Guy Pariente Holding.
Middle Earth is a player too. The Gosdens’ horse was progressive last season, he won the Melrose Handicap at York’s Ebor meeting and, after disappointing on soft ground in the St Leger, he went to Ascot in October and won a listed race over a mile and six furlongs on better ground.
Winner of the Aston Park Stakes on his debut this season, he didn’t run badly in the Hardwicke Stakes over today’s course and distance last time at the Royal meeting.
He didn’t really have the run of the race that day, he was well back in the field early on in a race in which the pace held up well, and he finished off his race well to take third place behind Isle Of Jura.
He stays today’s trip well, he stays further than this trip, and he should get a good strong pace today that will bring his stamina over this trip into play.
That said, it may be that the market has over-reacted to Oisin Murphy’s decision. Middle Earth is now as short as 7/1 in places, whereas Sunway is as big as 14/1, and that looks big.
The only member of the classic generation in the race, Sunway is fully deserving of his place in the line-up.
Winner of the Group 1 Criterium International over a mile at Saint-Cloud at the back-end of his juvenile season last October, David Menuisier’s horse hasn’t run in Britain yet this season, but he wasn’t beaten far in the Prix du Jockey Club in a race that wasn’t run to suit, and he stepped forward from that last time in the Irish Derby, when he stepped up to a mile and a half for the first time.
Well back in the field from early on that day, and in a share of last place when they turned for home, he made good ground through traffic from the three-furlong marker, and he stayed on strongly through the final furlong to get past Ambiente Friendly and claim the runner-up spot, just three parts of a length behind the winner Los Angeles.
He is probably going to have to improve on that run if he is going to beat his elders in a King George, but there is every chance that he will.
That was just his eighth run, and it was his first over a mile and a half. Also, James Doyle is an excellent deputy, and the Galiway colt is another who should be well suited by the strong pace that he should get today.
Rebel’s Romance in obviously a big player, and it is great that the Pretty Polly winner Bluestocking is set to take her chance, but the value of the race could lie with the only three-year-old in it.
International Handicap
And the value of the Moet & Chandon International Handicap 40 minutes earlier could lie with Billyjoh.
Mick Appleby’s horse was competitive in six-furlong handicaps early in the season, but he took a good step forward last time when he stepped up to seven furlongs for the first time and finished second in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot over today’s course and distance.
He was well back in the field early on that day, he was level with Carrytheone at the back of the near-side group at half-way, but he made good ground out towards the centre of the track when asked for his effort, and he stayed on well on the far side.
It never looked like he was getting to the impressive winner English Oak that day, but Ed Walker’s horse could be very good, and Billyjoh finished a good second, a length in front of Carrytheone.
Admittedly, Michael Bell’s horse didn’t have an untroubled path through, but he did race close to the favoured stands’ rail.
A 2lb hike was fine for Billyjoh and, now that connections know that he stays seven furlongs well, they can ride him with a little more confidence over the trip if they wish.
His high draw is a positive too, as this is a race in which, in recent history, high-drawn horses have dominated.
The first 10 home last year were all drawn in double figures, as were three of the first four in 2022, and three of the first four again in 2021 and the first five in 2020. The first five home in 2019 were drawn, respectively, 21, 23, 27 and 26 and, from his high draw, Billyjoh could go well.
Recommended
Billyjoh, 3.00 Ascot, 10/1 (generally), 1 point each-way,
Sunway, 3.40 Ascot, 14/1 (generally), 1 point win