TODAY’S July Cup is a fascinating July Cup. A clash of the sprinting generations, as it usually is.
Inisherin is a worthy favourite. He wasn’t a worthy favourite for the July Cup at the start of the season, he wasn’t even a sprinter at the start of the season. He was a Guineas candidate and, indeed, after two runs over a mile last season, he made his debut this season in said Guineas, and he didn’t run badly, showing pace and leading before fading late on.
You wouldn’t really have thought then that he would be a top-class sprinter. By Shamardal, who had the class and the stamina to beat Arc winner Hurricane Run in the Prix du Jockey Club from a wide draw, he is out of Ajman Princess, a listed race winner over a mile and a half, a Group 1 winner over a mile and a quarter.
It was a seriously astute move by Kevin Ryan and connections then, to drop him down to six furlongs for the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock in May, which he duly won. And just to prove that there was no fluke about that sprinting success, he went to Royal Ascot – in fairness, the market never doubted that his Haydock performance was not a one-off – and won the Commonwealth Cup.
Now, Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum’s horse is only a sprinter, his only entry after today is in the Sprint Cup at Haydock, and it wouldn’t be at all surprising if he were to add today’s contest, one of the premier sprints in Europe, to his ever-burgeoning CV.
Out-and-out sprinter
In contrast to Inisherin, Vandeek has always been a sprinter, Vandeek has only been a sprinter. He ran in four races last season, all of them over six furlongs, and he won the four of them. A Nottingham maiden, the Richmond Stakes, the Prix Morny and the Middle Park, and he stepped forward with every run. Maiden, Group 2, Group 1, Group 1.
The Crisfords’ horse was sent off at odds-on for the aforementioned Sandy Lane Stakes on his debut this season, but he could only finish third, four lengths behind Inisherin.
You can make the case for him reversing placings with his conqueror there though. There are two main pillars of that argument: one, he was making his seasonal debut, while Inisherin had run twice, and two, the Crisfords are zinging now after a quiet spell. Before yesterday, they had had three winners from their previous 11 runners in the last two weeks and then, yesterday, they won the first two races at Newmarket with Involvement and Arabian Dusk respectively. Today’s Vandeek could leave the Sandy Lane Vandeek well behind.
The ground is coming around for Regional, but it still might not be as fast as he likes it, while it is going against Kinross, who probably needs at least a little bit of cut in the ground for a Group 1 race over six furlongs. Also, they represent the older brigade, and the younger sprinters tend to hold sway in the July Cup. The last nine renewals have all gone to a three-year-old or a four-year-old.
Commonwealth form
You can argue the case for Jasour. Clive Cox’s horse has two and a half lengths to find with Inisherin on their running in the Commonwealth Cup, but he was slowly away at Ascot and he was keener than ideal early on.
He goes well at Ascot, he won the Pavilion Stakes there on his debut this season, but he also goes well at Newmarket, on the July Course, as he proved when he won the July Stakes at this meeting last year.
But the value of the race may be Swingalong. Karl Burke’s filly ran a massive race in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot, leading from early and only giving best to the winner Khaadem close home. We know that Ascot is a track at which it is difficult to pull off front-running tactics, and the sectionals tell us that the early pace was strong in the Jubilee Stakes, so Swingalong did remarkably well to go as close as she did. The other three horses who raced prominently early with her faded to finish, respectively, eighth, 11th and 12th.
She had shown her affinity for Ascot before, she finished third in the Commonwealth Cup and fourth in the British Champions Sprint Stakes last year, but her forward-going style of racing is surely better suited to Newmarket than it is to Ascot. She has never run on Newmarket’s July Course before, but, on her only run on the Rowley Mile, as a juvenile, she finished a good fourth in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes.
The drying ground is in her favour and, if she can get into a nice rhythm from early in front or in a prominent position, she has the pace to run a big race.
Superlative shout
Pentle Bay also has the pace to go well in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes a little earlier in the afternoon.
A game winner of his maiden over six furlongs at Leicester in early June, George Boughey’s horse couldn’t mix it with Bedtime Story in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot, but nobody else could, and he kept on well to take second place behind Aidan O’Brien’s filly.
The form of the Chesham is working out well already. Third-placed Brian ran out an impressive winner of a novice stakes at Newbury on Friday, and fifth-placed Miss El Fundi ran out a similarly impressive winner of another novice stakes at Kempton on Wednesday.
You can see Pentle Bay going out in trip in time, he has the pedigree and the racing style for it. He could be racing over a mile before the season is out, and there is a worry that Newmarket’s seven furlongs may be a sharper test than ideal, but that worry is more than factored into his odds.
He probably should be closer to the top of the market than he is.
Pentle Bay 3.25 Newmarket: 1pt win 8/1 (general)
Swingalong 4.35 Newmarket: 1pt win 16/1 (general)