TODAY’S renewal of the Al Shaqaab Lockinge Stakes looks unusually open. This year’s renewal is a contest in which you can make a case for many.
Modern Games is obviously a high-class miler, last year’s French 2000 Guineas winner. Charlie Appleby’s horse finished second to Baaeed in the Sussex Stakes last July and, second to Bayside Boy in the QEII at Ascot, he rounded off the campaign last year with victory in the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Keeneland.
We have no idea how good Laurel could be, she has won three of her four races, her only defeat coming when she finished second to Fonteyn in the Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket in October. She started off this season with an impressive victory in the Listed Snowdrop Stakes at Kempton last month, and that should bring her forward nicely for today.
Those two are both big players, but they are both short. Modern Games was beaten in a Grade 1 race back at Keeneland last month on his debut this season, and Laurel is priced up largely on reputation and potential, she has plenty to find on official ratings. Either could win of course, but, in a wide-open contest, they are both a little bit shorter than they should be.
By contrast, Mutasaabeq is probably a little bigger than he should be. Charlie Hills’ horse is five now, but he has long since threatened to be top class, and it appears that he is just starting to fully fulfil his potential now. He was pitched into the Guineas as a three-year-old after winning a conditions race at Newmarket’s Craven meeting and, such was the impression that he created there, he was sent off as 6/1 joint third favourite for that Guineas. It was all a bit much for him though, he under-performed in the Guineas, and he won just once after that as a three-year-old.
Progressed
He progressed last season though, he was narrowly beaten in Group 2 races at Sandown and at Ascot, and he finished off his campaign by making all the running to win the Group 2 Joel Stakes over a mile at Newmarket in September in first-time blinkers.
The headgear was in place again for his debut this season, and he probably put up a career-best performance in winning the Bet365 Mile, re-routed to Newmarket.
Again, he made all the running, and he came clear impressively to beat last year’s Guineas runner-up and Irish Guineas winner Native Trail by three lengths, with Light Infantry another short-head back in third.
Newbury is not as conducive to front-running tactics as Newmarket is, but, even so, it would be surprising if Jim Crowley did not endeavour to implement forward-going tactics again on Mutasaabeq, given how well they have worked on the last two occasions on which we have seen him. He is two for two now in blinkers and ridden forward.
And, generally, you don’t want to be too far off the pace in the Lockinge. Ribchester made all the running in 2017, and four of the last five winners raced handily from early.
London Gold Cup
The BetVictor London Gold Cup usually presents a tricky puzzle. This three-year-olds’ handicap is often won by a horse who goes on to much better things, it boasts a recent roll of honour that includes, Cannock Chase, Time Test, Defoe, Communique and Bay Bridge, and Royal Rhyme could be the answer this year.
Winner of his only race last year as a juvenile over seven furlongs on soft ground, Karl Burke’s horse shaped encouragingly in each of his first two runs this season over a mile, and he took a significant step forward last time when he stepped up to 10 furlongs for the first time, running out an impressive winner of a three-year-olds’ handicap at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting.
He travelled like the most likely winner from a long way out that day, he hit the front a fair way out, well outside the furlong marker, but he kept on really strongly to pull five lengths clear of his rivals.
The handicapper raised him by 10lb for that win to a mark of 95, but he won with lots in hand, he remains progressive, and the runner-up Rathgar ran well to finish third behind Chesspiece in a good handicap at York on Thursday.
Royal Rhyme could get further in time, but this 10-furllng trip is a good trip for him for now. Any further rain will be a positive for him, but he is a really likeable colt who has a willing attitude, and he could take another step forward now.
Royal Rhyme, 3.00 Newbury, 6/1 (generally), 1 point each-way,
Mutasaabeq, 3.35 Newbury, 5/1 (generally), 1 point win