THE Derby is intriguing this year. It usually is. There are usually many unknowns and imponderables about the top middle-distance three-year-old colts at this stage of the season, at this stage of their respective careers and, this year, City Of Troy provides most of them.

There is not much more that can be written about Aidan O’Brien’s horse that hasn’t been written already in the last four weeks.

Last year’s outstanding juvenile, there is obviously a big chance that Aidan O’Brien will have him back to his brilliant best today – Auguste Rodin provides the precedent – and, if he does, there is a massive chance that the Justify colt will be good enough to win the Derby.

He’s short enough though for all of that. He is longer in the market than he was last week, and there is a point at which and beyond which he becomes value – and that’s subjective – but he may be still short of that point this morning.

Los Angeles and Ancient Wisdom have attracted support during the week, and you can see the case for both. Winner of his maiden on his racecourse debut last September, Los Angeles went to France the following month and won the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud.

The Camelot colt won the Cashel Palace Hotel Derby Trial at Leopardstown on his debut this season. He wasn’t flashy in winning it, but he handled the goodish ground well and he went to the line strongly. He should improve for that experience and he should improve for the step up to a mile and a half today.

Ancient Wisdom should improve too for his run in the Dante. Charlie Appleby’s colt was put in his place at York by Economics but, winner of the Autumn Stakes and the Futurity Trophy as a juvenile – both races run over a mile on soft or heavy ground – and bred for stamina, he could take a significant step forward today.

Step forward

Ambiente Friendly could also take a step forward today. James Fanshawe’s horse has five and a half lengths to find with Ancient Wisdom on their running in the Autumn Stakes, but that was back in October, and Ambiente Friendly looks like a different horse now this season and stepped up to a mile and a half.

He was seriously impressive in winning the Lingfield Derby Trial on his second run this season. Without the hood that he had worn in his three previous races, he was keener than ideal through the early stages of that contest, but he still had enough energy in reserve to come away from his rivals.

He handled the downhill run into the home straight well, he was the only horse who was still on the bridle on the run to the two-furlong marker, and he cleared away from his rivals impressively. He finished four and a half lengths in front of Illinois, who had got to within a length of Los Angeles in the Criterum de Saint-Cloud in October.

There is substance too to go with the visual impression that Ambiente Friendly created at Lingfield.

The winning time was good, faster than Racing Post standard and over two seconds faster than the time that the fillies clocked in the Oaks Trial over the same course and distance 35 minutes earlier. As well as that, the third-placed horse Meydaan came out and won the Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood last Saturday.

The Gleneagles colt is proven over the Derby distance, and there is every chance that he can take another step forward now, if he can settle a little better than he did at Lingfield, in his second run without the hood. He has a nice draw in stall six, and ground just on the easy side of good should be ideal.

Diomed Stakes

Easy ground is also a positive for Epictetus in the Diomed Stakes. The Gosdens’ horse won his maiden on his racecourse debut as a juvenile on good to firm ground, but his two wins last season were both on soft ground, and he appears to be at his happiest when he can get his toe in at least a little.

One of those wins was in the Blue Riband Trial over 10 furlongs at Epsom, after which he ran well in the Dante, finishing a close-up fifth, when it appeared as if he just didn’t get home.

Also, that was a really strong Dante. Two of the four horses who finished in front of him that day are now Group 1 winners and the other two are Group 2 winners.

Epictetus is one for one at Epsom, and he probably put up the best performance of his career when he won the Group 3 Thoroughbred Stakes at Goodwood last August over a mile on soft ground.

Gelded during the winter, he was well beaten on his debut this season, in the Paradise Stakes at Ascot, but he has never been at his best at Ascot. In three runs there, he has finished 13th, eighth and fifth. He has never been out of the first five at any other track.

Back at Epsom now, and on easy ground, on his second run of the season, his second run since being gelded, he could take a nice step forward.

Embesto is a danger, if he can settle a little better than he did at Newmarket in the Earl of Sefton Stakes, and he may well settle better in his first-time hood.

Regal Reality is nine now, but he won this race last year as an eight-year-old, he obviously goes well at the track and he is a player, even if his best form is on faster ground.

Highland Avenue is also a player, but, second to Regal Reality in this race last year, he is short and, at a bigger price, Epictetus is the bet.

Recommended

Epictetus, 2.35 Epsom, 13/2 (generally), 1 point win

Ambiente Friendly, 4.30 Epsom, 7/1 (generally), 1 point win

Nellie Leylax (advised at 6/1), one of Donn’s two recommended bets last week, won the Silver Bowl at Haydock.