IF you’re a horses for courses and distances advocate, then you’re probably a Victtorino supporter in the three-mile premier handicap chase at Ascot today.

Venetia Williams’ horse sprang a 20/1 surprise when he won the Sodexo Gold Cup over today’s course and distance in early November, and he proved that that wasn’t a fluke when he followed up off a 4lb higher mark over the same course and distance at the Long Walk Hurdle meeting just before Christmas.

He just got home by three quarters of a length that day from Yeah Man, and the winning distance may have been even shorter if Gavin Cromwell’s horse – who runs in the Grand National Trial at Haydock today – had enjoyed a slightly better run through the race.

Victtorino is up another 4lb for that, and he was well beaten at Cheltenham last time.

You can allow him that run, Cheltenham and Ascot are chalk and cheese, and that was a really competitive race over an intermediate trip. He should appreciate the return to Ascot today, and the return to three miles. But he is short, and he does go into the race on the back of a disappointing run.

Threeunderthrufive is interesting. Winner of the Grade 2 Hampton Chase at Warwick as a novice, Paul Nicholls’ horse’s two runs this season have both been good. Second in the Badger Beer Chase at Wincanton in November, second in a premier handicap at Cheltenham’s December meeting, just beaten by the progressive Broadway Boy, with Protektorat behind him in third.

Plateauing

The problem is that he appears to be plateauing out now, he hasn’t won since he won that Hampton Chase, that was over two years ago, and he is up another 2lb in the handicap. He won four on the spin as a novice, but he hasn’t won since. He has lost the winning habit, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him run well in defeat again.

Shan Blue hasn’t won since he won the Kauto Star Chase at Kempton in December 2020, and he was pulled up in his last race last season and in his first two races this season, but he ran a big race last time, over two miles and three furlongs at Ascot in his first-cheekpieces, and there is every reason to expect that he will come forward from that today.

The cheekpieces seemed to rekindle his enthusiasm for racing that day. Kept wide, he made a fairly bad mistake at the third fence, but he was into his racing rhythm for Harry Skelton after that.

He travelled well to the third last fence, up with the fast pace that Harper’s Brook set, and he just got out-paced as they raced around the home turn before staying on late to finish a close-up third, as Triple Trade nabbed the idling leader close home.

Harper’s Brook came out next time and won a handicap chase at Sandown off a 3lb higher mark.

That was Shan Blue’s first run at Ascot, and he handled the fences well. Dan Skelton’s horse should appreciate the step back up to three miles today and, if the cheekpieces have the effect that they did last time, he could run a big race.

He is 10 years old now, but he is down to a mark of 143, a Grade 1 winner, 9lb lower than his peak. He goes into the race on the back of a good run, and five of the last seven winners of this race – and six of the last 10 – were 10.

Haydock

Dan Skelton could have the answer to the Pertemps qualifier at Haydock too in the form of Punta Del Este. Conditions are going to be more testing at Haydock than they are at Ascot, and heavy ground at Haydock is a specialist’s discipline. Punta Del Este ran well on goodish ground in the Victor Ludorum Hurdle on this day last year, his first run at Haydock, his first run for Dan Skelton, to finish third behind Bo Zenith.

He ran well for a long way too in a handicap hurdle on heavy ground at Sandown’s Tingle Creek Chase meeting in December, he just faded from the second last flight, and he stepped forward from that last time, back at Haydock, when he ran out an impressive winner of a two-mile-three-furlong handicap hurdle.

A 10lb hike for that win was not overly harsh, it takes him up to a mark of 131, and another few pounds would not be a negative if connections have an eye on the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham.

With plenty of stamina in his pedigree, he should appreciate the step up to three miles today. He is progressive anyway, he is only five, and he could take another step forward today.

Shan Blue, 3.00 Ascot, 6/1 (generally), 1 point win

Punta Del Este, 3.50 Haydock, 5/1 (generally), 1 point win