LAST month’s Paddy Power Gold Cup, at Cheltenham’s November meeting, could hold the key to this afternoon’s Nyetimber December Gold Cup, at Cheltenham’s December meeting. It often does.

It is possible to do the Paddy Power Gold Cup/December Gold Cup double. (The Mackeson/Massey Ferguson double, you would have called it once.) Pegwell Bay did the double, Senor El Betrutti did the double, Exotic Dancer did the double.

But no horse has won both races in the same year since Exotic Dancer, and that was in 2006, 18 years ago. And Exotic Dancer was a top-class staying chaser, a Lexus Chase winner.

Instinctively, if you didn’t know, you would think that there would be more dual winners. The December Gold Cup is the natural target for the Paddy Power Gold Cup winner, back at Cheltenham, over a similar distance, with a four-week gap between the two races.

Against the November winner is the fact that he is obviously going to be a fair bit higher in the handicap. As well as that, the November race is run on the Old Course, the December race is run on the New Course, on a more stamina-taxing course over a slightly longer distance, and often on softer ground, although that may not be the case this year.

The stats may be against the Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Il Ridoto, but he obviously has a chance. He was a deserving winner of the November race, he probably idled on the run-in, he probably had more in hand than that four-and-a-half-length winning margin.

Also, he has form on the New Course too, he won there in January 2023, and he was only just caught by Fugitif in this race last year. But he is up to a mark of 149 now, an 8lb hike for his win last month was harsh enough. He has never been higher than 149, and he hasn’t won off a mark higher than 141.

Obvious horse

The obvious horse to take out of the November race was Madara. It was his first time to race over an intermediate trip in Britain and it was his first run for Dan Skelton and, ridden conservatively, he stayed on well to finish fourth.

He gets to race off a 1lb lower mark today, he is only five, he is unexposed at the trip, and we know that he goes well at Cheltenham. But the market cottoned onto him early in the week, and he is short enough now in a really competitive race.

Fugitif ran well for a long way in the December race, and he should come on from that, his seasonal debut. He was game and gutsy in winning this race last year off a mark of 151, in just getting up to catch Il Ridoto, with the two of them clear, and he is back down to a mark of 150 now, 1lb lower than the mark off which he won last year.

He has won once and finished second twice and third once in five runs on the New Course, and this has probably been his target. On the downside, he is fairly short and he is nine. Only one horse aged older than eight has won the race since Fragrant Dawn won it in 1993.

Ga Law is more interesting at a bigger price. Jamie Snowden’s horse ran a big race in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last month to finish second behind Il Ridoto.

Big say

His jumping wasn’t as good as it usually is, but he arrived there on the outside on the run around the home turn, shaping like a horse who would have a big say in the outcome.

He seemed to stumble a little on rounding the home turn, it wasn’t anything major, but it wasn’t ideal, it just upset his rhythm at what was obviously a crucial stage of the race.

Il Ridoto skipped on from the second last fence, but Ga Law stayed on admirably from there, despite making a momentum-checking mistake at the last, to get the better of Lets Go Champ for the runner-up spot, closing on the winner all the way to the line.

A 1lb hike for that run was fine, and, back at Cheltenham, back on the New Course, he could take a step forward today.

He loves Cheltenham – he has won twice and finished second there once in five runs – and, while he seems to be equally adept on the Old Course and the New Course, the extra premium that the New Course places on stamina is probably a positive for him these days.

He does have to reverse places with Grandeur D’Ame from their running at Chepstow in October but, back at Cheltenham, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him do that.

At Doncaster

And staying with the horses-for-course theme, Forward Plan looks over-priced for his bid to repeat last year’s victory in the Bet365 Handicap Chase at Doncaster.

Anthony Honeyball’s horse is set to race off a handicap rating of 137 today, 12lb higher than the mark off which he won the race last year, but travelled like the most likely winner from a long way out that day.

He wasn’t helped by the omission of the fences in the home straight, and he idled close home, leaving the strong impression that he was winning with much more in hand than the one-and-a-half-length winning margin.

Furthermore, he won the hugely competitive Coral Trophy at Kempton in February off a mark of 133, and he wasn’t beaten far by Cruz Control in the big staying handicap chase on the Mildmay course at Aintree’s Grand National meeting in April off today’s mark of 137.

He was well beaten in the Badger Beer Chase at Wincanton on his debut this season, but he ran a similar race in the same contest on his seasonal return last year before going to Doncaster and winning today’s race.

The ground should be ideal for him, and it is surprising that he is not favourite in front of Gaboriot.

Ga Law, 1.50 Cheltenham, 8/1 (William Hill, Bet365), 1 point win

Forward Plan, 2.05 Doncaster, 11/2 (William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook), 1 point win