YOUR starting point with the Victoria Cup is to look for the progressive horse, the just-recently-turned-four-year-old who has the potential to be a fair bit better than the handicap rating off which he or she will race today.

Similar to most big handicaps on the flat then at this stage of the season.

And there is merit in that strategy, the results are in the form book: six of the last eight winners of today’s race were four, and the two who weren’t four were five.

There are a few four-year-olds in today’s line-up who are strong candidates. Mostabshir kept good company last year as a three-year-old, he ran in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot and he ran in the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury.

Gelded at the end of the summer, he ran well on his debut this season to finish a close-up third behind Mount Athos and Mums Tipple, and he should come forward from that. He is a player all right, but he is short enough.

Mustajaab is interesting. He was impressive in winning at Southwell on his debut this season. He came clear of his rivals impressively and won well.

But that was a 0-85 contest, this is a significant step up in grade, and the second and third from that Southwell race have both been well beaten since. Also, he is 7lb higher now than he was then, which would be fine if he was guaranteed to come on for that run, but he isn’t. He won on his debut last season too, and he didn’t win again last season. His Southwell run was his best performance since.

As well as that, he is drawn low and, it’s not conclusive, but you usually want to be drawn high in the Victoria Cup.

Ramazan is interesting, but his three runs have Ascot have all been underwhelming and, at a track at which course form is more important than it is at most tracks, that is a worry.

Lots in his favour

Popmaster is not a progressive four-year-old, but he has lots in his favour. We know that he goes well at Ascot, this specialist seven-furlong trip is probably his optimum, his trainer’s horses are in really good form, he is drawn high and he has almost certainly been targeted at today’s race.

Popmaster loves Ascot, some of his best runs have been there. He has won there twice, and he has finished second in a Wokingham and in a Challenge Cup. He does have the pace for six furlongs, but this seven-furlong trip is probably his best.

He is off a career-high mark of 109, but he ran really well in the Group 3 Abernant Stakes on his debut this season over an inadequate six furlongs. That should have brought him forward nicely for today’s race, a race that Ed Walker has surely had in mind for him for a while.

And Ed Walker has had six winners from 20 runners in the last 14 days, that’s a strike rate of 30%.

Popmaster has top-weight of 9st 12lb, which is not ideal, but Brandon Wilkie’s 5lb claim alleviates that somewhat.

It leaves him with 9st 7lb to carry, which is much more manageable according to the record books. Two of the last nine winners carried 9st 6lb or more, and in last year’s renewal, three of the first four home carried 9st 6lb or more.

There shouldn’t be much between Popmaster and Pearle D’Or on their running in the Challenge Cup in October, but Popmaster is a bigger price and he is drawn slightly better, and he looks over-priced.

Imperial Sovereign also looks over-priced in the Lingfield Derby Trial. Karl Burke is another trainer whose horses are in really good form these days, and Clifford Lee is riding Imperial Sovereign, which is interesting given that his stable companion Arabic Legend is a shorter price.

The Frankel colt is more unexposed than his stable companion too. He has run just twice, he easily landed a novice stakes at Newcastle in December on his racecourse debut, and he stepped forward from that last time when he finished second to a newcomer of Andrew Balding’s in a novice stakes at Kempton in March, going down by just a head.

A really nicely-bred colt, out of Imperial Charm, third in the Prix Saint Alary, fourth in the French Guineas, and from the family of Triple Time and Cape Byron and Ostilio and Ajmaan Princess, all those top Shiekh Obaid horses.

He saw out a mile and three furlongs well last time and, by Frankel, he should stay a mile and a half all right. He could take another step forward today.

Popmaster, 2.40 Ascot, 1 point each-way, 11/1 (generally)

Imperial Sovereign, 3.00 Lingfield, 1 point win, 14/1 (generally)