IT is a pity that today’s meetings in Britain at Kempton and Warwick have been lost to the weather, but they were both odds-against to go ahead from fairly early in the week, and fair play to the authorities for making contingency efforts.

The net result is that there is a full and fairly interesting National Hunt card in Britain at Ffos Las today, including the re-routed Towton Chase, as long as the course passes its 7.30am inspection.

Handstands is the logical favourite for the DragonBet-sponsored Towton Chase. Ben Pauling’s horse looked good in winning the Grade 2 Esher Chase on Tingle Creek Chase day at Sandown in early December, and there is every chance that he can step forward again from that. He had Saint Davy four lengths behind him in third place that day, but Saint Davy is almost twice his price today, and there are reasons for believing that the O’Neills’ horse can get closer today than he did that day.

Handstands has to shoulder a 5lb penalty today for that win for starters, Saint Davy meets him on 5lb better terms. More importantly, however, while Handstands should progress from that run, the magnitude of Saint Davy’s progression from Sandown may be greater.

Jonjo and AJ O’Neill’s horse was making his seasonal debut at Sandown, he was racing for the first time since March and he was racing in his first chase.

He made a mistake at the first fence, which may have gone a little under the radar because the leader Cadell made a much worse one. It was obviously early in the race, but it wasn’t an ideal start.

Mistakes

He was keen too, and he made another mistake at the first fence on the next circuit, at the same fence. Even so, he was right there just behind the leaders as they raced to the Pond Fence, the third last. He wasn’t as fluent as Handstands was at that obstacle, and the winner got away from him a bit, but he stuck to his task over the last two fences to finish within four lengths of the winner.

He is dropping down to just short of two and a half miles today, and he does stay three miles, but he has pace too.

Winner of his only point-to-point for Donnchadh Doyle, he won a bumper and he won his maiden hurdle over a distance that was just short of two and a half miles, and his dam won over two and a quarter miles over fences and hurdles in France. Also, the ground today should place a premium on stamina over the trip, and that should suit him well.

He is a keen-going sort, but he should settle better today on his second run back than he did at Sandown on his seasonal return. Also, the O’Neills’ horses are in really good form of late, they have had six winners from just 15 runners since just after Christmas. Saint Davy often races behind the pace or in mid-division or worse, and that style of racing over fences is much better suited to Ffos Las than it is to Sandown.

This is not a two-horse race, obviously. Cherie d’Am, third behind Dancing City and The Jukebox Man in the Grade 1 Sefton Hurdle at Aintree in April, was impressive in beating You Wear It Well in a listed mares’ chase at Warwick four weeks ago. Range looked good in winning nicely at Chepstow on his penultimate run before finding it all happening a little too quickly for him in a hot novices’ handicap chase at Kempton on St Stephen’s Day. But, in what should be a highly informative race, Saint Davy could represent the value.

Handicap Chase

Triple Trade could represent the value in the two-mile handicap chase later on the day. Joe Tizzard’s horse hasn’t won since he mugged Harpers Brook close home in a good handicap chase at Ascot’s Long Walk Hurdle meeting in December 2023, but he was highly tried at the end of last season, he ran in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham and in the Red Rum Chase at Aintree.

He was well beaten in each of his first two races this season, at Cheltenham and Ascot, over the minimum trip on each occasion, but he ran well for a long way in Libberty Hunter’s race at Cheltenham last time. He chased the early pace-setter Issar D’Airy from a long way out, and he stuck to his task well after he was headed by the chasers.

The handicapper has relented a fair bit. The Norse Dancer gelding was dropped by another 3lb after his latest run at Cheltenham, which takes him down to a mark of 127, 11lb lower than his rating at this time last year.

That has facilitated a drop down in class too into this Class 3 contest today. He hasn’t run in a Class 3 contest since he won a handicap chase at Kempton in April 2023, 21 months and 10 runs ago.

To put that into context, the top weights in each of those last 10 runs were rated, respectively, 154, 140, 153, 156, 152, 158, 148, 155, 140 and 152. In eight of the 10 races, the top-weight was rated 148 or higher, and in seven of the 10, the top weight was 152 or higher. The top weight in today’s race is rated 135. He should appreciate the drop in grade.

He stays further than the minimum trip, three of his four wins to date were over two and a quarter miles or further. So the premium that today’s soft ground – which he handles – will place on stamina is another positive.

Recommended:

Saint Davy, 1.15 Ffos Las - 1 pt win, 4/1 (generally)

Triple Trade, 3.31 Ffos Las - 1 pt win, 11/2 (generally)