YOU have to start your analysis of the Bet365 Cambridgeshire with Greek Order.

For? He is talented and he is progressive and he is lightly-raced. He kept on well to win a one-mile handicap at Sandown in May and, after a short break, he stepped forward from that last time at Newbury, when he was seriously impressive in winning a 10-furlong handicap.

The runner-up in that race, Maximilian Caesar, won a good handicap at Doncaster’s St Leger meeting next time, and is now rated 8lb higher than he was then.

In that context, or in any context really, a 10lb hike for Greek Order was more than fair. He has raced just five times, and he has the potential to go well beyond the handicap rating of 95 off which he races today.

He is well-drawn too in stall 25. You probably want to be more near side than far side in the Cambridgeshire and, quite remarkably, the last seven Cambridgeshire winners were all drawn in the 20s. And Roger Charlton has previous with the Cambridgeshire, Cap Juluca in 1995, Blue Monday in 2005.

Against? He has raced just five times. There is a chance that the Cambridgeshire, a 30-odd-runner nine-furlong dash, might all be a bit much for him.

The handicap that he won at Newbury was a 0-95 three-year-olds’ handicap. He has never taken on his elders before. He is into open waters today. If potential-for-further-progression is one side of the coin, then may-lack-experience is the other.

Also, the most recent Charlton/Juddmonte Cambridgeshire favourite, Tempus, could only finish sixth in 2020. More importantly, though, he is very short. No better than 4/1 anywhere and as short as 100/30 in places. He may drift as we get closer to race time, but it is a more open race than suggested by odds that tell you that one horse has a 20% (or a 23%) chance of winning.

Dual Identity is a player. William Knight’s horse was really impressive in winning the Sandown handicap in which he finished second last year, before he went on to Newmarket and finished third in the 2022 Cambridgeshire.

In finishing third in today’s race last year, he reversed places with his Sandown conqueror Protagonist, and this has surely been the plan again this year.

Unlucky

He was a bit unlucky last year too, he did best of the low-drawn horses, and he looked a likely winner when he burst clear on the far side. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him run a big race again, but he is 5lb higher now as a five-year-old than he was last year as a four-year-old.

Also, he got 8lb for his Sandown win. Connections probably felt that he had to go up at least a little in the handicap in order to be sure of getting into today’s race. He was rated 87, and number 34 today is rated 88. He may not have that much leeway in a mark of 95, and odds of around 12/1 look to be about right.

By contrast, odds of around 25/1 about Eagle’s Way look big. Sir Mark Prescott’s horse ran in that Sandown handicap, he finished five and a half lengths behind Dual Identity, but he ran better than the bare form of the run suggests.

He went forward from early that day from his wide draw, he moved across towards the inside rail and settled into second place behind the free-going Baltic Voyage, with the field well stretched out.

It was a race in which the hold-up horses came to the fore. The winner Dual Identity raced in mid-division from early, runner-up Certain Lad dropped back into the main pack early on, third-placed Stay Well was third last as they turned for home. By contrast, the early leader faded to finish second last, while Educator, who raced in third, finished ninth.

In finishing fourth, Eagle’s Way did best of the prominent racers. More than that, while he was well beaten by Dual Identity in the end, he was only beaten a length for the runner-up spot in a three-way go, with the first four clear.

Also, he is 8lb better off with Dual Identity for a five-and-a-half-length beating. That alone, even without taking the nuances of it into account, gives him a chance of reversing places, and he is twice the price.

Importantly, Eagle’s Way’s handicap rating at Sandown of 99 was always going to be high enough to get him into the Cambridgeshire.

So Sir Mark Prescott could comfortably use the Sandown race as a stepping stone to today, he could allow that race bring him forward so that he can be at concert pitch today, for a race that the trainer has won three times, including famously with Pasternak in 1997.

The Gleneagles gelding was a seriously progressive horse at the end of last season, he won his last four, rising from a handicap rating of 67 to a rating of 96. He proved that he had come forward again this season too with a really good run in a Racing League race at Yarmouth on his debut this season at the end of July, and you can easily allow him his run at Goodwood in early August, as that came up just four days after his seasonal return.

He has never run at Newmarket, but his forward-going style should suit the track well. He stays 10 furlongs well, which is an asset in a Cambridgeshire, almost always a thorough test over nine furlongs, and he is nicely drawn in stall 24. He could run a big race.

Haydock

Manila Scouse could also run a big race in the five-furlong handicap at Haydock earlier in the day. Tim Easterby’s horse goes into the race in good form, having put up a fine performance at York last week in finishing a close-up third behind Vintage Clarets.

He raced towards the near side that day from his high draw and, prominent from early, he looked a likely winner when he moved up to join the winner on the run to the furlong marker.

He should be suited by the even softer ground today, and by the return to Haydock. He has run at the Lancashire track twice, finishing third in a handicap on fast ground in May, and then probably putting up the best performance to date when winning a five-furlong apprentices’ handicap on heavy ground last month. Tim Easterby has his horses in fine form, he had another winner at Southwell on Thursday, and Manila Scouse could go well.

Recommended:

Manila Scouse, 1 point win, 2.40 Haydock, 4/1 (generally)

Eagle’s Way, 1 point each-way, 3.40 Newmarket, 28/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) or 25/1 (generally)